AFL Grand Final Preview & Predictions

The 2026 AFL Grand Final is the contrast the season has been building towards without anyone quite planning it. Fremantle were the best team across the home-and-away season by a distance and have never held the cup. Brisbane were third, have won the last two, and are into a fourth consecutive Grand Final.

There is a shared detail that says more about this finals series than either record does: neither side won a final in the opening week. Fremantle lost a qualifying final at home to Hawthorn, Brisbane lost theirs to Sydney at the SCG, and both then won two knockout games to get here. Catch up on the preliminary final results or follow the whole draw on our AFL finals bracket.

Fremantle vs Brisbane

The head-to-head

Five meetings since 2023, and Brisbane lead 3-2. What the record does not convey is how little middle ground there has been: the margins read 48, 3, 23, 57 and 25 points. One close game in five, and two blowouts in opposite directions.

The only 2026 meeting went to Fremantle, and went decisively: 103-78 at the Gabba in round 12, a 25-point win away from home against the reigning premiers during the middle of Fremantle’s 14-match winning run. Brisbane’s biggest win in the sample is a 57-point result at Optus Stadium in 2025, which is the single strongest data point available to anyone arguing the market has Fremantle too short. Every meeting is on our Fremantle vs Brisbane head-to-head page.

Form and the numbers

Fremantle finished minor premiers at 19-4 with 137.2 per cent, the best percentage in the competition, built around a 14-match winning streak. Their finals campaign has been anything but serene. Hawthorn beat them 72-40 at Optus Stadium in the qualifying final, which remains the worst performance by either grand finalist this September. They then beat Geelong 120-106 in a semi-final, and came from 28 points down in the third quarter to beat Sydney 83-71 at the SCG.

Brisbane finished third at 16-7 and 121.7 per cent. They were beaten 141-88 by Sydney in their qualifying final, answered with a 144-91 win over Adelaide, and then won a preliminary final that was not settled until the last minute, Hugh McCluggage kicking the goal that put them nine clear of Hawthorn with 36 seconds left. Kai Lohmann kicked five in that game.

Fremantle vs Brisbane	Number
Meetings since 2023	5
Series record	Brisbane 3, Fremantle 2
2026 meeting	Fremantle 103-78, round 12, Gabba
Average margin	31.2 points
Average total	164.4 points
Decided by under a goal	1 of 5
Home-and-away finish	Fremantle 1st (19-4), Brisbane 3rd (16-7)
Route to the Grand Final	Both lost a qualifying final

 

The betting angle

Brisbane are favourites, and the market is pricing September over March to August. That is a defensible way to frame a side that has won the last two premierships and has now played four Grand Finals in a row: whatever the ladder said, this group has demonstrably solved the specific problem of winning a final at the MCG in late September.

The argument for Fremantle is the season-long gap. Sixteen points of percentage and three wins separated them from Brisbane over 23 rounds, they won the only meeting between the two this year by 25 on Brisbane’s own ground, and they have just shown they can win a knockout final from 28 down on the road. A minor premier at better than even money is not a long shot; it is a market decision to weight recent finals pedigree above a full season of evidence.

On the shape of the game, the honest note is that this fixture has produced one close contest in five and an average margin of 31. If that pattern holds, the line is likely to be the more informative market than the head-to-head, in either direction. We would be more cautious about the total: a Grand Final is the single least representative game of the year for scoring patterns, and 164.4 is an average drawn from home-and-away football.

The Norm Smith Medal

Best-on-ground is traditionally the hardest market on the day, because it usually follows the winning side and rewards midfielders. Hugh McCluggage arrives having kicked the goal that won a preliminary final; Kai Lohmann kicked five in the same game. For Fremantle, the SCG comeback was a team effort rather than one performance, which is the sort of detail that matters in a market that pays for a single afternoon. Current prices and our full read are on the Norm Smith Medal page.

Grand Final day

Detail
Match	Fremantle v Brisbane Lions
When	Saturday 26 September 2026, 2:30pm AEST
Venue	Melbourne Cricket Ground
Broadcast	Seven Network and 7plus
Pre-match	Kylie Minogue, G Flip and Mike Brady; anthem by Michael Paynter

 

The storylines

Fremantle have never won a premiership. Entered the competition in 1995, one Grand Final appearance before this, a loss in 2013. A first flag for the club would be the headline of the season regardless of how the game is played.

Brisbane are chasing three in a row. It is a rare thing: the last two clubs to manage it were Brisbane themselves in 2001, 2002 and 2003, and Hawthorn in 2013, 2014 and 2015. A win on Saturday would also make it four consecutive Grand Final appearances.

The double chance was worth less than usual this year. Both grand finalists lost their qualifying final, and in the preliminary finals both home sides with a week off were beaten. Across the whole series the rested, higher-seeded side kept losing, which is the opposite of what the finals system is built to reward.

The minor premiership still counts for something. Fremantle’s reward for finishing first was a home qualifying final they lost, and then two away knockout games. They won both. A side can be the best team of the season and still have to earn it twice over.

Where to Bet on the AFL Grand Final

Grand Final markets are the deepest of the year: head-to-head, line, margin bands, Norm Smith, first goalscorer, quarter-by-quarter and same game multis. Prices move through the week as team news lands, so compare before you commit. See our best AFL betting sites guide, and build the day out with our AFL same game multi tips.

More AFL Content

• AFL Grand Final: start time, how to watch and odds
• AFL Finals Bracket 2026: every fixture and result
• Preliminary finals results: how both games were won
• AFL Round-by-Round Predictions: every round of the season
• AFL Match Predictions: every team-vs-team head-to-head
• AFL Premiership Odds · Norm Smith Medal · Brownlow Medal
• AFL betting hub · Best AFL betting sites