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The Western Bulldogs survived Tim Membrey's miss after the siren and Carlton ran down Melbourne after conceding the first four goals, so eighth and tenth came through the first Wildcard Round and Collingwood and Melbourne are out.
AFL 2026: Wildcard Round in Focus
The first Wildcard Round did what the AFL hoped it would: two knockout games at the MCG on consecutive nights, both decided by the side the ladder said should lose, and more than 170,000 people through the gates across two nights. Seventh to tenth played off for the last two places in the eight, and it was eighth and tenth that came through. Collingwood and Melbourne are finished. Our tips went 0 from 2, which is the worst return of any round this season and worth being upfront about. Both games below, then the bracket that came out of it.
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Membrey misses after the siren and the Bulldogs survive
Western Bulldogs 14.12 (96) def. Collingwood 14.9 (93)
The finals opened on Friday night with eighth against ninth and the tightest possible finish. Tim Membrey marked in the final minute and had a set shot from about 40 metres after the siren to win it for Collingwood. It faded right. The Western Bulldogs had held on by three in front of 81,036.
We tipped Collingwood by 1 to 12 points, so the tip lost, though the caveat in our preview held up better than the selection: we wrote that a two-goal margin in a knockout game between sides two points apart was optimistic, and three points was about right. Collingwood had the better percentage of the two across the season, 102.4 to 95.4, and it counted for nothing.
For the complete statistical head-to-head, see our full Western Bulldogs vs Collingwood head-to-head record & tips →.
Carlton run down Melbourne after conceding the first four goals
Carlton 10.14 (74) def. Melbourne 7.13 (55)
Saturday night, and the strangest price of the finals came in. Melbourne had finished seventh on 60 points and 109.6 per cent, Carlton tenth on 50 points and 101.5, and the market still made Carlton favourite. It kicked the first four goals of the night to Melbourne and then belonged to Carlton, who won by 19 in front of almost 92,000.
Ben Ainsworth kicked three, and Sam Walsh and Jagga Smith were the best players on the ground. We took Melbourne on the basis that they were the better side across 23 games and were being priced as though they were not. The market was right and we were wrong.
For the complete statistical head-to-head, see our full Carlton vs Melbourne head-to-head record & tips →.
The finals bracket after the Wildcard Round
The two winners take the 7 and 8 seeds by their original ladder position, not by which night they won on. That is what makes the format interesting: the eighth-placed Western Bulldogs are the higher-ranked winner and take the 7 seed, while tenth-placed Carlton take the 8 seed. So the Bulldogs travel to Adelaide and Carlton meet Geelong at the MCG.
| Match | Fixture | When | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| Qualifying Final 1 | Fremantle v Hawthorn | Thu 3 Sep | Optus Stadium |
| Elimination Final 1 | Geelong v Carlton | Fri 4 Sep | MCG |
| Qualifying Final 2 | Sydney v Brisbane | Sat 5 Sep | SCG |
| Elimination Final 2 | Adelaide v Western Bulldogs | Sat 5 Sep | Adelaide Oval |
Semi-final and preliminary-final dates have not been released. The Grand Final is Saturday 26 September at the MCG.
What it means
The format survived its first test on the numbers. The stated aim was to give sides outside the old eight a live shot, and it delivered exactly that: Carlton finished tenth, ten points below Melbourne, and are still playing. Whether that is a feature or a flaw is the argument the competition will now have.
Percentage decided nothing. Collingwood carried the better percentage into Friday and lost. Melbourne carried the better record and percentage into Saturday and lost. Two weeks after percentage decided who made the top six, it decided nothing at all.
The crowds answered the commercial question. 81,036 on the Friday and close to 92,000 on the Saturday, for games between sides finishing seventh to tenth. That is the number the AFL will point at.
Wildcard Round talking points
Both markets read the last fortnight, not the season. Collingwood were favoured on season-long form and lost; Carlton were favoured on recent form and won. The lesson is not that one approach beats the other, it is that a knockout game between sides two points apart is close to a coin toss whatever the ladder says.
Melbourne’s collapse is the story of their season. They led the Wildcard bracket on both points and percentage, lost to the Bulldogs in the final round to fall out of the top six, and then lost again to the side that finished tenth. Three weeks ago they were a top-four chance.
Carlton get the harder draw for winning. Because seeding runs on original ladder position, the reward for Carlton’s win is Geelong, fifth and with the third-best percentage in the competition. The Bulldogs, who finished two places higher, get Adelaide.
Looking for the best bookmakers to bet on the AFL?
Compare the best Australian bookmakers for AFL finals betting, including premiership futures and Norm Smith Medal markets, on our best betting sites in Australia guide. Catch up on Round 24 results and the final ladder, or read our Wildcard Round preview.
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