AFL Wildcard Round Preview & Predictions

The Wildcard Round opens the 2026 finals with Western Bulldogs v Collingwood and Melbourne v Carlton at the MCG. Both away sides are favoured, the winners get an elimination final against Geelong or Adelaide, and both losers are out.

The home-and-away season is done and the new Wildcard Round opens the 2026 finals series. Seventh to tenth play off across two nights at the MCG for the last two places in the eight, and both losers are out. Catch up on Round 24 results first, where three sides finished level on 60 points and percentage sent Melbourne into this bracket instead of a week off.

The prize is an elimination final: Geelong host one winner at the MCG on the Friday night of week two and Adelaide host the other on the Saturday. Above them, Fremantle meet Hawthorn and Sydney meet Brisbane in the qualifying finals. The betting shape of this round is the story on its own, because both away sides are favoured and Carlton are favoured despite finishing three places and ten points below Melbourne. Here are our reads on both games; model the bracket with the AFL Ladder Predictor and track the market on our AFL premiership odds page.

Western Bulldogs vs Collingwood

Prediction: Collingwood to win by 1-12 points

The finals series opens on Friday night at the MCG with eighth against ninth, and the winner gets an elimination final while the loser is finished. The Western Bulldogs got here by beating Melbourne by 21 in the final round, which is the result that pushed the Demons out of the top six. Collingwood arrived the other way, beaten by 63 by Brisbane at the same ground.

The market has Collingwood at $1.85 and the Western Bulldogs at $1.97, which reads oddly against last weekend but makes sense across the season. Collingwood finished on 102.4 per cent against the Bulldogs’ 95.4, the worst for-and-against of the four sides in this bracket, and they drew twice with Hawthorn without ever being beaten heavily. Take the Magpies, but a two-goal margin in a knockout game between sides two points apart is optimistic.

Head-to-head: Western Bulldogs vs Collingwood prediction & H2H record →

Melbourne vs Carlton

Prediction: Melbourne to win in a coinflip

Saturday night at the MCG, and this is the strangest price of the finals so far. Melbourne finished seventh on 60 points and 109.6 per cent. Carlton finished tenth on 50 points and 101.5 per cent. Ten points and eight percentage points separated them across 23 games, and the market has Carlton favoured.

Carlton are $1.70 and Melbourne $2.18, which is the market pricing the last fortnight rather than the season. Melbourne lost to the Western Bulldogs and fell out of the top six; Carlton beat Fremantle by 37 and have won two of their last three. That is a real form line, and a side that has just collapsed is a legitimate worry in a knockout game.

It is also the pattern that burned the market a week ago, when 13th-placed North Melbourne were favoured over second-placed Sydney at the SCG and lost by 53. We will take Melbourne here on the basis that they are the better team over 23 games and are being priced as though they are not, but a side in this much trouble does not deserve a margin bet. Coinflip, leaning Demons.

Head-to-head: Melbourne vs Carlton prediction & H2H record →

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AFL Wildcard Round FAQs

When is the 2026 AFL Wildcard Round?

Western Bulldogs play Collingwood at the MCG on Friday 28 August at 7:40pm AEST, and Melbourne play Carlton at the MCG on Saturday 29 August at 7:35pm AEST.

What do the Wildcard Round winners get?

An elimination final in week two. Geelong host one wildcard winner at the MCG on the Friday night and Adelaide host the other on the Saturday night. The two losing sides are out of the finals.

Why are Melbourne in the Wildcard Round?

Melbourne finished seventh. They went into the final round level on 60 points with Geelong and Adelaide, lost to the Western Bulldogs by 21, and were pushed out of the top six on percentage: 109.6 against Geelong’s 122.3 and Adelaide’s 117.3.

Who is favoured in the Wildcard Round?

Both away sides. Collingwood are $1.85 against the Western Bulldogs at $1.97, and Carlton are $1.70 against Melbourne at $2.18, despite finishing three places and ten points below them.

What are the AFL qualifying finals in 2026?

Fremantle host Hawthorn at Optus Stadium on Thursday 3 September at 8:10pm AEST, and Sydney host Brisbane at the SCG on Saturday 5 September at 3:15pm AEST. All four sides have a double chance.

How does the AFL Wildcard Round work?

New for 2026, it replaces the pre-finals bye. The sides finishing seventh to tenth play off, with seventh meeting tenth and eighth meeting ninth, for the last two places in the finals eight. The top six go straight through.

More AFL Content

• AFL Tips & Hub — all match tips and finals coverage
• AFL Round 24 Results — the final ladder and how the bracket was set
• AFL Finals Format & Wildcard Round — how September works in 2026
• AFL Round-by-Round Predictions — every round of the season
• AFL Match Predictions — every team-vs-team head-to-head
• AFL Premiership Odds · AFL Ladder Predictor · Brownlow Medal
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