AFL Wildcard Round Preview & Predictions

The Wildcard Round opens the 2026 finals with Western Bulldogs v Collingwood and Melbourne v Carlton at the MCG. Both away sides are favoured, the winners get an elimination final against Geelong or Adelaide, and both losers are out.

🏈 Wildcard Round complete. Western Bulldogs 96 def Collingwood 93; Carlton 74 def Melbourne 55.
Elimination finals: Geelong v Carlton (Fri 4 Sep, MCG) and Adelaide v Western Bulldogs (Sat 5 Sep, Adelaide Oval).

The home-and-away season is done and the new Wildcard Round opens the 2026 finals series. Seventh to tenth play off across two nights at the MCG for the last two places in the eight, and both losers are out. Catch up on Round 24 results first, where three sides finished level on 60 points and percentage sent Melbourne into this bracket instead of a week off.

The prize was an elimination final, and the seeding rule decided who went where: the two winners take the 7 and 8 seeds by their original ladder position, so the eighth-placed Western Bulldogs travel to Adelaide on the Saturday and tenth-placed Carlton meet Geelong at the MCG on the Friday night. Above them, Fremantle meet Hawthorn and Sydney meet Brisbane in the qualifying finals. The betting shape of this round is the story on its own, because both away sides are favoured and Carlton are favoured despite finishing three places and ten points below Melbourne. Both games are done and the bracket is set; model the rest of it with the AFL Ladder Predictor and track the market on our AFL premiership odds page.

Western Bulldogs vs Collingwood

Result: Western Bulldogs 14.12 (96) def Collingwood 14.9 (93) — our tip lost

The Western Bulldogs won a three-point knockout final in front of 81,036 at the MCG, and it turned on the last kick of the night: Tim Membrey had a set shot from about 40 metres after the siren to win it for Collingwood and it faded right. The Bulldogs go through to an elimination final and the Magpies are out. We tipped Collingwood by 1-12 points, so the tip lost, though the caveat below held up better than the selection did.

The pre-match read, for the record. The finals series opened on Friday night at the MCG with eighth against ninth, and the winner got an elimination final while the loser was finished. The Western Bulldogs got here by beating Melbourne by 21 in the final round, which is the result that pushed the Demons out of the top six. Collingwood arrived the other way, beaten by 63 by Brisbane at the same ground.

The market had Collingwood at $1.85 and the Western Bulldogs at $1.97, which read oddly against the final round but made sense across the season. Collingwood finished on 102.4 per cent against the Bulldogs’ 95.4, the worst for-and-against of the four sides in this bracket, and they drew twice with Hawthorn without ever being beaten heavily. We took the Magpies while warning that a two-goal margin in a knockout game between sides two points apart was optimistic, and that much was right: three points was as close as the season-long form suggested it would be.

Head-to-head: Western Bulldogs vs Collingwood prediction & H2H record →

Melbourne vs Carlton

Result: Carlton 10.14 (74) def Melbourne 7.13 (55) — our tip lost

Carlton won by 19 in front of almost 92,000 at the MCG, and they did it the hard way: Melbourne kicked the first four goals of the night and Carlton ground them down from there. Ben Ainsworth kicked three, and Sam Walsh and Jagga Smith were the best players on the ground. Carlton go on to an elimination final against Geelong; Melbourne are out. We tipped Melbourne, so both of our Wildcard tips lost, and the market was right about this one where we were not.

The pre-match read, for the record. This was the strangest price of the finals so far. Melbourne finished seventh on 60 points and 109.6 per cent. Carlton finished tenth on 50 points and 101.5 per cent. Ten points and eight percentage points separated them across 23 games, and the market had Carlton favoured.

Carlton were $1.70 and Melbourne $2.18, which was the market pricing the last fortnight rather than the season. Melbourne lost to the Western Bulldogs and fell out of the top six; Carlton beat Fremantle by 37 and have won two of their last three. That is a real form line, and a side that has just collapsed is a legitimate worry in a knockout game.

It is also the pattern that burned the market a week ago, when 13th-placed North Melbourne were favoured over second-placed Sydney at the SCG and lost by 53. We will take Melbourne here on the basis that they are the better team over 23 games and are being priced as though they are not, but a side in this much trouble does not deserve a margin bet. Coinflip, leaning Demons.

Head-to-head: Melbourne vs Carlton prediction & H2H record →

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AFL Wildcard Round FAQs

When is the 2026 AFL Wildcard Round?

It is complete. The Western Bulldogs beat Collingwood 14.12 (96) to 14.9 (93) at the MCG on Friday 28 August, and Carlton beat Melbourne 10.14 (74) to 7.13 (55) at the same ground on Saturday 29 August.

What do the Wildcard Round winners get?

An elimination final in week two, and both are now set: Geelong host Carlton at the MCG on Friday 4 September, and Adelaide host the Western Bulldogs at Adelaide Oval on Saturday 5 September. Collingwood and Melbourne are out.

Why are Melbourne in the Wildcard Round?

Melbourne finished seventh, and are now eliminated. They went into the final round level on 60 points with Geelong and Adelaide, lost to the Western Bulldogs by 21, and were pushed out of the top six on percentage: 109.6 against Geelong’s 122.3 and Adelaide’s 117.3.

Who won the AFL Wildcard Round?

The Western Bulldogs and Carlton. Both games went against the pre-match market shape in different ways: Collingwood were favoured at $1.85 and lost by three when Tim Membrey missed after the siren, while Carlton were favoured at $1.70 despite finishing three places and ten points below Melbourne, and won by 19.

What are the AFL qualifying finals in 2026?

Fremantle host Hawthorn at Optus Stadium on Thursday 3 September at 8:10pm AEST, and Sydney host Brisbane at the SCG on Saturday 5 September at 3:15pm AEST. All four sides have a double chance.

How does the AFL Wildcard Round work?

New for 2026, it replaces the pre-finals bye. The sides finishing seventh to tenth play off, with seventh meeting tenth and eighth meeting ninth, for the last two places in the finals eight. The top six go straight through.

More AFL Content

• AFL Tips & Hub — all match tips and finals coverage
• AFL Round 24 Results — the final ladder and how the bracket was set
• AFL Finals Format & Wildcard Round — how September works in 2026
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• AFL Match Predictions — every team-vs-team head-to-head
• AFL Premiership Odds · AFL Ladder Predictor · Brownlow Medal
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