AFL Round 24 Results: Highlights & Expert Analysis

The final home-and-away round left three sides level on 60 points, and percentage sent Melbourne into the Wildcard Round. Fremantle finish minor premiers, Brisbane and Hawthorn split the other double chance, and the market misread Sydney badly.

AFL 2026: Round 24 in Focus

The final home-and-away round did what the last round is supposed to do. Three sides finished level on 60 points and percentage decided which two of them skipped the Wildcard Round, and the side that missed out was Melbourne, beaten by 21 by the Western Bulldogs on Saturday afternoon. Fremantle finish on top having lost the last game, Brisbane and Hawthorn split the other double chance by two tenths of a percentage point, and the market got the Sydney game spectacularly wrong. Our tips finished six from nine on the result. Game by game below, then the final ladder and what it means for September.

Suns spoil Brad Hill’s 300th at Marvel

Gold Coast 103 def. St Kilda 80

The final round opened on Thursday night with a game that mattered to nobody but the two clubs in it, and Gold Coast won it by 23. It was Bradley Hill’s 300th match, and the Saints sent out Nick Holman and Dougal Howard as retirees on the same night. The Suns kicked 14.19, which is 19 shots missed and still enough.

Our preview had St Kilda to win by 13 or more on the basis that the better list usually wins a dead rubber. It was the wrong read: both seasons had finished weeks earlier, and the side with the retirement guard of honour was the one that could not lift.

For the complete statistical head-to-head, see our full Gold Coast vs St Kilda head-to-head record & tips →.

Lions batter Collingwood to take third

Brisbane 159 def. Collingwood 96

Brisbane put 159 on Collingwood at the MCG on Friday night and won by 63, which was more than enough to secure third and a double chance. They finish level with Hawthorn on 64 points and ahead on percentage, 121.7 to 120.1, which is the margin that decides who they meet and when.

Collingwood could not reach the top six whatever happened here, and the beating dropped them to ninth, which means a Wildcard tie with the Western Bulldogs. Our preview had Brisbane by 13 or more and it was never close.

For the complete statistical head-to-head, see our full Brisbane vs Collingwood head-to-head record & tips →.

Carlton send the minor premiers home beaten

Carlton 119 def. Fremantle 82

Fremantle had the minor premiership sewn up before the bounce and played like it. Carlton won by 37 at Marvel, which tells you plenty about what a dead rubber does to a side with a qualifying final to prepare for. The Dockers still finish on top with 137.2 per cent, the best in the competition.

We backed Fremantle to win inside two goals, reasoning that they were the better team but had nothing to play for. The direction was wrong even if the logic was half right: nothing to play for turned out to mean exactly that. Carlton finish tenth and into the Wildcard Round.

For the complete statistical head-to-head, see our full Carlton vs Fremantle head-to-head record & tips →.

Bulldogs end Melbourne’s top-six season

Western Bulldogs 108 def. Melbourne 87

This was the result of the round. The Western Bulldogs beat Melbourne by 21 at the MCG, and in doing so knocked the Demons out of the top six. Melbourne finish seventh on 60 points, level with Geelong and Adelaide and behind both on percentage, which means the Wildcard Round instead of a week off.

Our preview had Melbourne by 13 or more, on the argument that they needed percentage and would chase it. They needed it badly and could not get near it. The Bulldogs finish eighth and take a Wildcard tie against Collingwood.

For the complete statistical head-to-head, see our full Western Bulldogs vs Melbourne head-to-head record & tips →.

Cats cruise past Richmond to hold fifth

Geelong 133 def. Richmond 76

Geelong did what they had to do at GMHBA, winning by 57 against a Richmond side that finishes seventeenth. It kept the Cats fifth on 122.3 per cent, the best percentage of the three sides who finished on 60 points, and that is what earned them the week off.

Our preview had Geelong by 13 or more and called it a percentage-building exercise, which is exactly what it was. Richmond finish with three wins and 62.5 per cent, the lowest in the competition.

For the complete statistical head-to-head, see our full Geelong vs Richmond head-to-head record & tips →.

Crows win big and steal sixth

Adelaide 157 def. GWS 101

Adelaide needed to win and win well, and they put 157 on GWS at Adelaide Oval to do it by 56. That took them to 60 points and, crucially, to 117.3 per cent, ahead of Melbourne’s 109.6 and into the last top-six place.

Our preview said Adelaide had to win big and get help, and that the first two were on them. They delivered both halves of their own job. The help came from the Western Bulldogs rather than from Richmond, which was not the scenario we mapped, but the outcome was the one Adelaide needed. Tipped at 13 or more and delivered.

For the complete statistical head-to-head, see our full Adelaide vs GWS head-to-head record & tips →.

Power finish the season with a win

Port Adelaide 105 def. Essendon 95

Port Adelaide beat Essendon by 10 in a Sunday lunchtime game between the two sides who finish fifteenth and eighteenth. Essendon end the season on eight points from 23 games, which is the wooden spoon by a distance.

We had Port by more than two goals and they got there by 10, so the result landed and the margin band did not. In a game between two sides with nothing at stake, a narrow finish is the more likely outcome than a blowout, and we should have priced that.

For the complete statistical head-to-head, see our full Port Adelaide vs Essendon head-to-head record & tips →.

Swans blow away the market and the Kangaroos

Sydney 123 def. North Melbourne 70

The strangest market of the round produced the least strange result. Bookmakers had North Melbourne favoured at $1.75 with Sydney out to $2.10, on the theory that a side locked into second with nothing to play for would not turn up. Sydney won by 53.

We called it a coinflip and leant Swans, and said the market had priced motivation rather than the ladder. That was the right call and it was not close. It is worth remembering the next time a dead rubber produces a price that contradicts a 136 per cent for-and-against.

For the complete statistical head-to-head, see our full Sydney vs North Melbourne head-to-head record & tips →.

Hawks stroll to fourth and a date with Fremantle

Hawthorn 107 def. West Coast 45

The season closed in Perth and Hawthorn ended it by 62, locking fourth place and the double chance. They meet Fremantle in a qualifying final. West Coast finish sixteenth on 69.2 per cent.

We took the Hawks but inside two goals, flagging their record as a short-priced favourite and the length of the trip. They won by 10 goals. The margin band was wrong and the caution was unnecessary, though the reasoning behind it, that Hawthorn had underperformed as favourites, was fair on the evidence to that point.

For the complete statistical head-to-head, see our full Hawthorn vs West Coast head-to-head record & tips →.

Final AFL ladder after Round 24

 

Ladder implications

Fremantle are minor premiers: Nineteen wins from 23 and 137.2 per cent. They lost the last game with the top spot already secured and meet Hawthorn in a qualifying final.

Brisbane and Hawthorn split the other double chance: Both finish on 64 points. Brisbane take third on percentage, 121.7 to 120.1, and play Sydney. Hawthorn take fourth and play Fremantle.

Three sides finished on 60 and percentage decided the week off: Geelong 122.3, Adelaide 117.3, Melbourne 109.6. Geelong and Adelaide fill fifth and sixth and skip the Wildcard Round. Melbourne, seventh, do not.

The Wildcard Round is Melbourne v Carlton and Western Bulldogs v Collingwood: Seventh plays tenth and eighth plays ninth, on 28 to 30 August, for the last two places in the finals eight.

The bottom is settled: Essendon finish eighteenth on 8 points, Richmond seventeenth on 12 with the competition’s lowest percentage at 62.5, and West Coast sixteenth on 16.

Round 24 talking points

Percentage decided who got a week off, and it was built over 23 rounds: Melbourne, Geelong and Adelaide all finished on 60 points. The 12.7 percentage points between Adelaide and Melbourne were not lost on Saturday afternoon; they were lost across a season. In a competition where three sides can finish level, the margin markets you take in April matter in August.

The market misread a dead rubber badly: North Melbourne were $1.75 favourites at the SCG against a Sydney side on 136.1 per cent, purely because Sydney had nothing to play for. Sydney won by 53. Motivation is a real factor in a final round, but it is not worth a two-goal swing against a side that good.

Two of the three sides who needed a win got one, and it was the third that mattered: Adelaide won by 56 and Geelong by 57. Melbourne lost by 21 and that single result reordered the top seven. When three teams are level on points, the only game you cannot afford to lose is your own.

Our round: six from nine on the result: Brisbane, Geelong and Adelaide all landed inside the margin band we set. We got the result but not the margin on Port Adelaide, Sydney and Hawthorn, and we were wrong on St Kilda, Fremantle and Melbourne. The three misses were all games where we backed the side with more to play for and the other side did not care.

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