NRL Round 25 Preview & Predictions

Round 25 opens on Thursday night in Melbourne and the story of the weekend is who is not playing: North Queensland hold eighth place on 28 points and have the bye, so four sides below them get a free swing at the last spot in the eight.

Round 25 opens on Thursday night in Melbourne and the story of the weekend is who is not playing. North Queensland hold eighth place on 28 points and have the bye, so four sides below them get a free swing at the last spot in the eight. Catch up on Round 24 results first, where Indigenous Round produced four upsets, the Roosters beat Penrith 12-6 to go top, and two games were decided by two points.

At the top, the Roosters lead on 38 with Penrith and the Warriors level on 36, and both chasers carry far better differentials, so the minor premiership is a live three-way race. The betting shape of the round is unusual too, with four away teams favoured: Penrith at Melbourne, the Warriors at Souths, Canterbury at the Dragons and Cronulla at Gold Coast. At the other end of the eight, Canterbury on 26 can pass the idle Cowboys with a win, and Manly, Melbourne and Canberra are all on 24. Here are our Round 25 predictions and head-to-head reads for all eight games; model the run home with the NRL Ladder Predictor, check the market on our NRL premiership odds page, and confirm your side at NRL team lists.

Melbourne Storm vs Penrith Panthers

Prediction: Penrith Panthers to win by 1-12 points

The round opens on Thursday night at AAMI Park with Penrith (2nd, 15-6) trying to win back the top spot they lost to the Roosters last week. The Panthers own the best differential in the competition at plus 286 and sit on 36 points, level with the Warriors and two behind the Roosters. Melbourne (11th, 9-12) are on 24 after their bye and need to win out and get help to have any say in the eight.

The market has Melbourne Storm at $3.20 and Penrith Panthers at $1.33. Penrith were beaten 12-6 by the Roosters at CommBank and before that shipped 22 unanswered points to the Warriors in Auckland, so the aura is not what it was a month ago. AAMI Park against a Storm side whose season depends on it is the wrong place to expect a comfortable night. Take Penrith on the four points, but inside two converted tries.

Head-to-head: Melbourne Storm vs Penrith Panthers prediction & H2H record →

Canberra Raiders vs Brisbane Broncos

Prediction: Canberra Raiders to win by 13+ points

Friday evening at GIO Stadium. Canberra (12th, 10-12) have played 22 games, one more than most of the sides around them, and their 24 points leave them needing a great deal of help. They did at least win away at Cronulla last week, a result nobody saw coming. Brisbane (16th, 6-15) are out of contention and were beaten 40-6 by the Warriors at Suncorp, at home, in a game that told you where their season is.

The market has Canberra Raiders at $1.25 and Brisbane Broncos at $3.75. Canberra in Canberra in late August against a side with a minus 198 differential is about as clear as this round gets. The Raiders have the better recent form and the only remaining motivation. Take them to win by more than two converted tries.

Head-to-head: Canberra Raiders vs Brisbane Broncos prediction & H2H record →

Dolphins vs Parramatta Eels

Prediction: Dolphins to win by 13+ points

Friday night at Suncorp, and the Dolphins (4th, 14-7) are protecting a top-four place worth a great deal in September. They are on 34 points with plus 120, two clear of Cronulla and Newcastle. Parramatta (13th, 8-13) are on 22 points with a differential of minus 181, though they did beat the Cowboys by two in a 62-point game last week.

The market has Dolphins at $1.16 and Parramatta Eels at $4.60. The Dolphins kept Manly scoreless at 4 Pines in Round 24, which is the sort of defensive night that tends to carry. Parramatta can score, as that Cowboys game showed, but a minus 181 differential across 21 games says the defence leaks. Take the Dolphins at home and expect them to control it.

Head-to-head: Dolphins vs Parramatta Eels prediction & H2H record →

Newcastle Knights vs Manly Sea Eagles

Prediction: Newcastle Knights to win by 1-12 points

Saturday afternoon at McDonald Jones, and both sides need it. Newcastle (6th, 14-8) are on 32 points from 22 games, which means their rivals have a game in hand on them and every win from here is about staying inside the top six rather than climbing. Manly (10th, 9-12) are on 24 and must win to keep pace in the race for eighth.

The market has Newcastle Knights at $1.37 and Manly Sea Eagles at $3.00. Manly were held scoreless by the Dolphins last week, which is a hard thing to bounce back from, but their plus 46 differential is far better than any other side on 24 points and suggests a team closer to the eight than the ladder shows. Newcastle held off Gold Coast 36-26 at home. Take the Knights, but this is not a margin play.

Head-to-head: Newcastle Knights vs Manly Sea Eagles prediction & H2H record →

South Sydney Rabbitohs vs New Zealand Warriors

Prediction: New Zealand Warriors to win by 1-12 points

Our game of the round, at Accor on Saturday evening, and it has stakes at both ends of the ladder. The Warriors (3rd, 15-6) are on 36 points with plus 276 and are two behind the Roosters with a genuine claim on the minor premiership. South Sydney (7th, 12-9) are on 30 and holding seventh, and with North Queensland idle this week a win would put real distance between themselves and the chasing pack.

The market has South Sydney Rabbitohs at $2.35 and New Zealand Warriors at $1.54. The Warriors have been the form side of the competition: 40-6 at Suncorp last week, and before that a 22-0 lead on Penrith in Auckland. Souths won the Sydney derby 22-6 against Canterbury. Accor is a genuinely hard trip and Souths have every reason to be up for it, so take the Warriors on the result but respect the line.

Head-to-head: South Sydney Rabbitohs vs New Zealand Warriors prediction & H2H record →

St George Illawarra Dragons vs Canterbury Bulldogs

Prediction: Canterbury Bulldogs to win by 1-12 points

Saturday night in Sydney, and this is the game the top eight turns on. Canterbury (9th, 10-11) are ninth on 26 points, two behind North Queensland, and the Cowboys have the bye. Win here and Canterbury go level on 28 with a differential of minus 62 against the Cowboys’ minus 78, which would move them into eighth. St George Illawarra (17th, 4-17) are last with minus 263.

The market has St George Illawarra Dragons at $2.65 and Canterbury Bulldogs at $1.44. On form this looks straightforward, and it is not. The Dragons ambushed fourth-placed Cronulla in Round 23 and then beat Wests Tigers by two in Round 24, so they have two scalps in two weeks and nothing to lose. Canterbury were beaten 22-6 by Souths. Take the Bulldogs, because they have to have it, but a comfortable margin is not the bet.

Head-to-head: St George Illawarra Dragons vs Canterbury Bulldogs prediction & H2H record →

Gold Coast Titans vs Cronulla Sharks

Prediction: Cronulla Sharks to win by 13+ points

Sunday afternoon at Cbus Super Stadium. Cronulla (5th, 13-8) are on 32 points with plus 165 and are trying to hold a top-five finish after losing at home to Canberra last week, their second upset defeat in three weeks after the Dragons result. Gold Coast (15th, 6-15) are on 18 with minus 154 and lost 36-26 in Newcastle.

The market has Gold Coast Titans at $2.60 and Cronulla Sharks at $1.45. Cronulla have dropped two games they should not have, which is exactly why this is the week they respond. The Titans have not beaten a top-eight side in months and the gap in differential is more than 300 points. Take the Sharks to win by more than two converted tries.

Head-to-head: Gold Coast Titans vs Cronulla Sharks prediction & H2H record →

Sydney Roosters vs Wests Tigers

Prediction: Sydney Roosters to win by 13+ points

The round closes on Sunday afternoon at Allianz with the ladder leaders at home to a side playing out the season. The Roosters (1st, 16-5) are on 38 points after beating Penrith 12-6, and with Penrith and the Warriors both on 36 they cannot afford a slip. Wests Tigers (14th, 7-14) are on 20 with minus 213 and lost the derby to the last-placed Dragons by two.

The market has Sydney Roosters at $1.07 and Wests Tigers at $7.50. The Roosters’ plus 163 differential is the weakest of the top three, so if the minor premiership comes down to a split they need margin as much as points, and this is the fixture to get it. Take the Roosters comfortably and treat them as the anchor of any multi for the round.

Head-to-head: Sydney Roosters vs Wests Tigers prediction & H2H record →

North Queensland Cowboys have the bye

The Cowboys are the only side out this week, and it is the worst possible week for it. Eighth on 28 points with a differential of minus 78, the weakest for-and-against of anyone in the top ten, they sit still while Canterbury play the last-placed Dragons and Manly, Melbourne and Canberra all have winnable games. They can finish the round outside the eight without kicking a ball.

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NRL Round 25 FAQs

When is NRL Round 25 2026?

Round 25 runs from Thursday 20 August to Sunday 23 August 2026. It opens with Melbourne against Penrith at AAMI Park on Thursday night and closes with the Sydney Roosters hosting Wests Tigers at Allianz Stadium on Sunday afternoon.

Which team has the bye in Round 25?

North Queensland. The Cowboys sit eighth on 28 points and do not play, so they cannot add to their total while Canterbury, Manly, Melbourne and Canberra all have a chance to close on them.

What is the game of the round?

South Sydney against the New Zealand Warriors at Accor on Saturday. The Warriors are on 36 points and chasing the minor premiership, while Souths are holding seventh and have a chance to break clear of the chasing pack while North Queensland are idle.

Who is fighting for the top eight?

North Queensland hold eighth on 28 points but have the bye. Canterbury are ninth on 26 and would move above them on differential with a win over the Dragons. Manly, Melbourne and Canberra are all on 24, though Canberra have played 22 games to Manly’s and Melbourne’s 21.

Who can still win the minor premiership?

The Sydney Roosters lead on 38 points, with Penrith and the Warriors level on 36. Penrith hold the best differential in the competition at plus 286 and the Warriors are on plus 276, against the Roosters’ plus 163, so a points tie at the end of the season would favour the chasers.

Why do some teams have played more games than others?

The bye rounds are staggered. Newcastle, North Queensland and Canberra have played 22 games going into Round 25 while most of their rivals have played 21, so the ladder should be read with the played column in view rather than points alone.

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