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Get expert AFL 2025 Finals Week 1 (Round 25) predictions, tips, and betting insights. Find the best odds and analysis for this week’s finals at BettingPro.com.au.
Get set for September action with our in-depth previews and predictions for Week 1 of the AFL Finals Series.
Adelaide Crows vs Collingwood
Crows to win by 1–39 points
Adelaide Oval hosts a blockbuster qualifying final on Thursday night as the ladder-leading Crows look to turn their dominant home form into a September springboard. Matthew Nicks’ side closed the season with nine straight wins, including that tight three-point victory over Collingwood in Round 23, and their balance across the ground has made them the competition’s benchmark.
Collingwood may have dropped three of their last four, but their efficiency with ball in hand and ability to punish turnovers means they can’t be written off. The battle will hinge on contested work, where Adelaide hold the edge — their hit-outs and clearance numbers rank among the league’s best and should feed a forward line capable of making the most of its chances.
The Magpies will fight to keep this close, but the Crows’ system and home-ground advantage make them the safer pick to book a preliminary final spot.
Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions
Cats to win by 1–39 points
Friday night at the MCG delivers another qualifying final classic as Geelong and Brisbane meet with a prelim spot on the line. The Lions have held the edge in recent meetings — including a 41-point victory in Round 15 — but Chris Scott’s Cats enter September on a six-game winning streak, closing the season with dominant wins over Richmond, Sydney and Essendon to lock in second place.
Geelong’s ability to control tempo and exploit space inside 50 has been the hallmark of their surge. Brisbane, meanwhile, bring impressive clearance numbers and contested pressure, but they’ve mixed strong wins with costly lapses that leave them vulnerable against well-drilled systems.
Expect a hard-fought contest early, but the Cats’ defensive shape and forward versatility at the ‘G should tilt the balance their way in the big moments. We’re backing Geelong to grind out a narrow win and punch their ticket to the preliminary final.
GWS Giants vs Hawthorn
Giants to win by 1–39 points
ENGIE Stadium hosts a do-or-die elimination final on Saturday as the Giants ride a three-game winning streak into September. Adam Kingsley’s side have rediscovered their sharpness, grinding out a hard-fought win over St Kilda before dominant victories against Gold Coast and North Melbourne, with clean ball movement and forward efficiency making them one of the form sides heading into the finals.
Hawthorn will bring pressure and belief after some strong late-season showings. Their contested-ball strength and edge in hit-outs give them the tools to trouble the Giants’ midfield and create dangerous forward-half looks.
The Hawks will make this physical and tight, but GWS’ composure with ball in hand should tell in the decisive stages. Expect the Giants to hold their nerve and progress to Week 2.
Fremantle vs Gold Coast
Dockers to win by 1–39 points
Optus Stadium stages the second elimination final, with Fremantle leaning on home advantage and a handy recent record against the Suns. The Dockers have won the last three head-to-heads (by 11 in Round 12 this year, 20 in 2024, and 10 in 2023), and their shape behind the ball at Optus typically forces opponents into long, slow entries.
Gold Coast arrive buzzing after a club-record 95-point demolition of Essendon to clinch their first finals berth. The Suns’ numbers point to a live threat: they average more inside 50s, clearances and hit-outs than Freo this season (Jarrod Witts looms large), and if they control stoppage tempo, they can flip territory quickly.
The battle will be decided at the source. If Fremantle can halve the ruck/clearance count and turn it into an intercept game, their forward efficiency at home should be the difference. We’re backing the Dockers to prevail, but expect resistance from a buoyant Suns outfit.
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