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Expert AFL 2025 Preliminary Final 1 predictions and betting insights for Geelong Cats v Hawthorn. Get tips, stats and analysis at BettingPro.com.au.
Get set for September action with our in-depth previews and predictions for the 2025 AFL preliminary finals.
Geelong Cats vs Hawthorn
Cats to win by 1–39 points
Friday night’s preliminary final at the MCG marks the first half of a rare double-header weekend, with both prelims staged at the ground for the 10th occasion since the system was introduced in 1994. The last time both prelims were at the MCG was 2019, when nearly 95,000 fans watched Richmond and Geelong battle for a grand final spot. This year promises another blockbuster crowd as Geelong, the second seed after a 17-win season, meet arch rivals Hawthorn. The Cats enter on a seven-match win streak and are well-placed to return to the last Saturday in September, but the Hawks’ September momentum makes this a genuine test.
Hawks surge into September form
Hawthorn stunned Adelaide with a 34-point semi-final win that bundled the minor premiers out in straight sets. Veteran Jack Gunston kicked five goals in a masterclass against his former side, continually finding space on the lead and punishing the Crows’ defence. Jai Newcombe controlled the midfield from the outset, racking up 28 disposals and dominating centre clearances. Josh Butler impressed with two goals and nine tackles, and James Sicily’s intercept marking cut off Adelaide’s forward entries. Josh Ward and Nick Watson added composure at key moments. It was a performance built on pressure and belief, and with minor concerns eased — Gunston cleared to play after hamstring tightness and Mitch Lewis’ semi-final substitution confirmed as tactical. They arrive at the MCG with momentum and a fearless edge.
Cats carry the favourite’s tag
Geelong booked their place in the prelim with a seven-match winning streak that underlined their balance across the ground. Patrick Dangerfield continues to set the tone with his contested work and leadership, while Tom Atkins and Mark Blicavs have offered reliable support through the middle. Max Holmes provides outside run that opens up the MCG’s wider spaces, and Tom Stewart remains one of the game’s premier intercept defenders. Up forward, Jeremy Cameron’s movement and finishing power make him a constant danger, and the Cats’ efficiency inside 50 has consistently punished opponents. With a proven finals core and a record of holding their nerve in tight finishes, Geelong carry the weight of expectation but also the tools to deliver.
Key players who can swing the contest
The Cats will look to Cameron’s scoreboard impact and Stewart’s aerial dominance to tilt the game their way, with Dangerfield’s ability to steady clearances also critical. Holmes’ running power looms large in the wide-open spaces of the MCG. For Hawthorn, Newcombe’s strength at stoppages and ability to surge forward will decide whether they can match Geelong’s midfield, while Gunston’s craft and experience make him a difficult match-up. Sicily’s reading of the play is central to halting Geelong’s inside-50 efficiency, and a fit-again Mitch Lewis provides the contested marking presence Hawthorn lacked earlier in the season.
Head-to-head and form lines
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Round 6, 2025 (MCG): Geelong 12.14 (86) def. Hawthorn 11.13 (79) by 7 points
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Round 17, 2024 (GMHBA Stadium): Geelong 16.14 (110) def. Hawthorn 9.5 (59) by 51 points
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Round 3, 2024 (MCG): Geelong 17.4 (106) def. Hawthorn 10.10 (70) by 36 points
Across 2025 the Cats have generated more marks and efficiency inside 50, while Hawthorn have had the edge at stoppage clearances, and Geelong have controlled centre clearances. If turnovers favour the Cats, their firepower is likely to prove decisive.
Prediction: Cats to survive a scare
Geelong’s consistency and firepower make them deserved favourites, but Hawthorn’s semi-final statement against Adelaide showed they are more than just a finals participant. Mitchell’s young group will bring energy and belief, and with Gunston finding form, they are capable of pushing the Cats deep into the contest. Expect a spirited battle under lights in front of a huge MCG crowd, but Geelong’s balance across the lines and ability to convert chances should see them prevail by a narrow margin.
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