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Expert AFL 2025 Preliminary Final 2 predictions and betting insights for Collingwood Magpies v Brisbane Lions. Get tips, stats and analysis at BettingPro.com.au.
Get set for September action with our in-depth previews and predictions for the 2025 AFL preliminary finals.
Collingwood Magpies vs Brisbane Lions
Magpies to win by 1–39 points
Saturday evening’s second preliminary final pits the competition’s last two premiers against one another in front of a packed MCG. Collingwood, back on home turf after a dominant qualifying final win, meet a Brisbane side aiming for a fourth consecutive grand final appearance. It is a clash of seasoned finals performers, with both clubs seeking another flag to stamp their era among the AFL’s modern greats.
Magpies recharge for September
Collingwood stumbled through the run home, losing three of their final five and hanging onto fourth spot. The pre-finals bye gave their senior players time to freshen up, and the result was a composed win over Adelaide that put them back on track. The Magpies’ defensive steel has again been their bedrock, ranked No. 1 for points against and restricting opponents to fewer than 10 marks inside 50 per game.
Selection intrigue surrounds this match with Jeremy Howe close to returning from a groin strain and Norm Smith medallist Bobby Hill pushing for fitness after a long layoff. Brody Mihocek, ever reliable as a forward target, is expected to line up despite concerns. With Nick Daicos driving creativity from the middle and Scott Pendlebury still offering composure, the Pies carry both experience and balance into the contest.
Lions still carry a punch
Brisbane enter the prelims through the longer route, but their semi-final win over Gold Coast showed they remain a dangerous opponent. They brushed aside the Suns by 38 points and did it without Lachie Neale, still out with a calf injury. Hugh McCluggage led the way with 10 clearances, while the Ashcroft brothers showed their bite around the contest. Josh Dunkley was everywhere too, racking up 20 touches and 18 tackles in the sort of selfless shift you need in September.
Brisbane’s record at the MCG has turned around — five wins from their last six — and that run includes a convincing round 21 result over Collingwood. Logan Morris’ six-goal breakout that day gave them a genuine focal point in attack, and with Joe Daniher roaming further afield, Brisbane can stretch the Magpies’ defensive unit.
Key players who shape the contest
Jordan De Goey could be a difference-maker. Limited to 10 games this season through injury, the Magpies midfielder looked sharp against Adelaide with 26 touches, six clearances and a goal. His ability to break tackles and surge forward will test the Lions’ on-ballers. Alongside him, Nick Daicos’ run-and-carry is central to Collingwood’s attacking chains, with Jeremy Howe’s possible return boosting an already miserly defence.
For Brisbane, McCluggage’s clearance work and calm decision-making will be crucial in the absence of Neale. Dunkley’s selfless assignments — likely against either Daicos or De Goey — could decide whether the Lions can disrupt Collingwood’s rhythm. Up forward, Morris’ contested marking and accuracy give Chris Fagan’s side a genuine weapon, with Charlie Cameron’s pace always capable of sparking goals in a hurry.
Head-to-head and recent encounters
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Round 21, 2025 (MCG): Brisbane 14.8 (92) def. Collingwood 10.5 (65) by 27 points
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Round 6, 2025 (Gabba): Collingwood 16.9 (105) def. Brisbane 7.11 (53) by 52 points
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Round 23, 2024 (MCG): Collingwood 11.13 (79) def. Brisbane 11.12 (78) by 1 point
Collingwood jumped the Lions in round six with pressure and pace. When they crossed paths again in August, it was Brisbane’s midfield that took control and swung the game their way. The Pies’ defensive efficiency against the Lions’ contested game sets up another tight battle.
Prediction: Magpies to edge a thriller
This is a genuine heavyweight semi-final, with both teams carrying recent premiership pedigree. Brisbane have shown they can win at the MCG and their midfield remains formidable, but the absence of Neale strips away some control. Collingwood’s defensive organisation, combined with De Goey’s timing and Daicos’ influence, should give them the edge in a close contest. Expect swings of momentum and a fierce battle for territory, but the Magpies’ structure and ability to convert inside 50 should see them hold off the Lions by under two goals.
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