Best bets and expert AFL analysis for Round 11 of the 2025 season

Betting Pro Australia Staff:
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Get expert AFL 2025 Round 11 predictions, tips, and betting insights. Find the best odds and analysis for this week's fixtures at Bettingpro.com.au.

Get ready for all the action with our in-depth previews and predictions for Round 11 of the AFL season.

Geelong vs Western Bulldogs

Cats to win and total points under 178.5

Round 11 kicks off on Thursday night at GMHBA Stadium with what could be the clash of the round, as seventh-placed Geelong host fifth-placed Western Bulldogs. Both teams come into this one with identical 6-4 records after ten rounds, and we’re expecting a fiercely contested arm wrestle. While the Bulldogs are arguably in better form—having won four of their last five—the Cats have remained competitive even in defeat and probably should be higher up the ladder. Back on their home deck, we’re backing Geelong to edge this one in a tight encounter that’s unlikely to blow out on the scoreboard.

Essendon vs Richmond

Bombers to win by 1-39 points

Both Essendon and Richmond head into Friday night’s clash at Marvel Stadium looking to bounce back from disappointing Round 10 performances. While the Bombers were soundly beaten by the Bulldogs, they had been building solid momentum prior to that, winning five of their previous six. We’re backing Brad Scott’s side to respond strongly and return to form against a Tigers outfit that has now slipped to a 7–3 record and looks increasingly vulnerable.

Carlton vs GWS Giants

Giants to win by 1-39 points

Carlton will host the Giants at Marvel Stadium on Saturday afternoon with both sides under pressure to find consistency. Adam Kingsley’s men have lost four of their last five, but tellingly, they remain inside the top eight—a sign of the strong foundation they built earlier in the season. We’re backing the Giants to get back on track against a Blues side that has struggled against top-eight opposition.

Hawthorn vs Brisbane

Hawks to win with -9.5 handicap

Hawthorn will host Brisbane on Saturday at the MCG, with the Lions having lost their way over the last two rounds following a draw with North Melbourne and then a defeat to Melbourne. The reality is that a trip to the ‘G to play the Hawks comes at an awkward time, as the Lions haven’t beaten Hawthorn since 2019. We can’t see that changing, and expect another setback for the reigning premiers this week.

North Melbourne vs Collingwood

Pies to win by 40+ points

Saturday at Marvel Stadium sees 17th take on 1st as North Melbourne host ladder leaders Collingwood. While the Kangaroos have shown signs of life in recent weeks, the Pies will, in all likelihood, prove too hot to handle—just as they have in recent meetings. Collingwood are undefeated against North in six years, and this could well turn into one of the more one-sided contests of Round 11.

Fremantle vs Port Adelaide

Dockers to win by 1-39 points

Port Adelaide travel to Optus Stadium on Saturday night to face Fremantle, coming off three consecutive losses. Despite their best efforts, the Power have struggled to build the momentum needed to solidify their spot in the top eight and currently sit at 4-6. Meanwhile, the Dockers levelled their season at 5-5 after Round 10, and we expect Fremantle to record a close victory at home.

Adelaide vs West Coast

Crows to win by 40+ points

West Coast head to the Adelaide Oval on Sunday to face Adelaide, having finally shaken the monkey off their back by no longer being the only AFL team without a win this season. Despite an impressive performance against St Kilda in Round 10, keeping pace with the high-flying Crows will almost certainly prove too much for the Eagles this time, with Adelaide set to soar at home.

Melbourne vs Sydney

Demons to win with +2.5 handicap

Melbourne host Sydney at the MCG on Sunday afternoon in the penultimate clash of Round 11. Both sides sit on 6-4 records, though it’s the Demons who enter this one high on confidence after an impressive win over Brisbane in Round 10. That result, however, also continued a trend of inconsistency for Simon Goodwin’s side, who’ve mixed strong performances with some puzzling lapses. Sydney, currently 12th, find themselves in a similar boat — capable of quality football but lacking consistency. This promises to be a tightly contested matchup, but with home advantage, we’re leaning toward Melbourne to edge it.

St Kilda vs Gold Coast

Suns to win by 1-39 points

St Kilda and Gold Coast close out Round 11 with a Sunday clash at Marvel Stadium. The Saints’ season has taken a downturn in recent weeks, capped by a disastrous Round 10 defeat to West Coast, making them the first side to lose to the Eagles in 2025. Gold Coast, by contrast, are building serious momentum. With a 7–2 record and a game in hand, the Suns are well in the mix for a top-four finish. Expect the Suns to finish the round with another solid win.

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