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Eight games, no passengers: our AFL Round 4 predictions and tips cover every matchup with form reads, key stats, and the best angles.
Round 4 lands with the ladder already doing what it always does in March: lying to us a little, but not completely. Gold Coast are 3-0 and sitting top with a ridiculous 191.04%, the Dogs are unbeaten and belting teams, and a couple of big-name contenders are already in the scramble to stop the season sliding away. Last week had enough upsets and momentum swings to keep every coach awake, and if you missed anything, catch up here: Round 3 Analysis
My AFL Round 4 predictions hinge on one simple read: the early-season teams who win the contest are converting it into repeat entries and scores, while the pretty-ball movers are coughing it up at the wrong times. That’s why the most fascinating storyline this week is whether the Suns’ hot start is legit enough to travel to the MCG and stare down Melbourne, and whether Brisbane can finally stop Collingwood turning the Gabba into their personal playground.
There are a few games where the models are basically unanimous, and a couple where the numbers say “coin flip” but the matchup screams otherwise. Let’s get into the Round 4 AFL tips, game by game.
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Brisbane Lions vs Collingwood
Prediction: Brisbane Lions to win by 1-39 points
This is the round’s tone-setter: Brisbane (13th, 1-2) at the Gabba trying to arrest a slow start against a Collingwood side (7th, 2-1) that’s been cleaner with the ball and more consistent across four quarters. The models are all-in on Brisbane (24 from 24, average margin 15), but here’s the catch: Collingwood have enjoyed the Gabba lately, winning the last two there (2025 and 2024), and putting 105 on the board in Brisbane in Round 6 last year.
Where Brisbane can flip the script is at the coalface. They’re averaging 132 clearances for the season (best in this matchup by a distance) and that’s exactly where Collingwood look most vulnerable, sitting on just 88 clearances. If the Lions get first hands, they can keep the Pies’ rebound game honest and make this a territory fight.
The headliners are obvious: Lachie Neale is already at 28.7 disposals and 8.0 clearances a game, while Nick Daicos is ripping games open with 36.7 disposals and a massive 9.0 inside 50s per match. If Brisbane let Daicos choose the angles, they’ll be chasing shadows.
Still, Brisbane’s clearance edge at home is the lever I trust. We’re backing Brisbane to win because their midfield can manufacture enough repeat entries to finally make the Gabba feel like a Lions venue again.
North Melbourne vs Carlton
Prediction: Carlton to win by 1-39 points
North (6th, 2-1) have been one of the early stories of the season, but this matchup is a reality check against a Carlton side (16th, 1-2) that’s better than its ladder spot and has historically handled the Roos at Docklands. Carlton have won four straight against North at the venue, including the 82-point demolition in Round 6 last year (153-71). The models lean Blues as well (22 from 24, average margin 6.8), and I’m with them.
The key is how the game gets played. North are getting enough of the ball to compete, but Carlton bring a nastier inside profile: they’re averaging 427 contested possessions so far, compared to North’s 387. That matters because it’s the difference between clean exits and hacked kicks that turn into easy rebounds.
Watch the midfield battle through two lenses. Patrick Cripps is already posting 7.3 clearances and 14.7 contested possessions a game, which is the exact combo that breaks young midfields. North’s answer is Harry Sheezel, who’s gone to another level as a ball-winner with 34.3 disposals a match. If Sheezel is forced into defensive running instead of using it, North’s attack slows.
North can absolutely make it a scrap, but Carlton’s inside strength and Docklands history are hard to ignore. We’re backing Carlton to win because their contested work should decide the territory battle late.
Adelaide vs Fremantle
Prediction: Adelaide to win by 1-39 points
This is a classic “form says one thing, matchup says another” game. Fremantle are 3rd (2-1) and Adelaide are 12th (1-2), yet the models are heavily Crows (21 from 24, average margin 10.7). The venue is the swing factor: Adelaide Oval should let the Crows’ outside runners get to work, but they’ll have to earn it because Fremantle are bringing serious contest early in 2026.
Freo’s signature is pressure and repeat stoppages: they’ve racked up 426 contested possessions already, and that’s not a typo. Adelaide are strong too (397), but the difference is Fremantle are doing it while also generating 169 inside 50s for the season. If the Dockers get their forward half game going, Adelaide will be defending for long stretches.
Head-to-head at Adelaide Oval is where it gets interesting: Fremantle have won on their last two visits (2022 and 2021), including the one-point steal in Round 1, 2022. So this is not a venue where Freo automatically fold.
The player I’m circling is Caleb Serong. He’s at 26.0 disposals and 6.7 clearances a game, and he’s also hitting the scoreboard (4 goals from three games). Combine that with Luke Jackson’s 6.7 clearances and 13.7 contested possessions per match, and Fremantle can genuinely bully the middle.
So why Adelaide? Because the Crows’ ball use looks sharper than their record, and at home they should turn stops into cleaner entries than Fremantle allow on the road. We’re backing Adelaide to win by controlling field position and forcing Fremantle to defend for longer than they want.
Richmond vs Port Adelaide
Prediction: Port Adelaide to win by 1-39 points
Richmond are 18th (0-3) and staring at a season that could get ugly quickly if they can’t find a reliable way to score. Port are 11th (1-2), but this is exactly the kind of game they should bank before the schedule tightens. The models agree (22 from 24 Port, average margin 8.8) and the recent head-to-head is even louder: Port have won five straight against Richmond, including both meetings in 2024 and the 72-point thumping in Round 2 last year at Adelaide Oval.
The Tigers’ biggest issue is they’re not generating enough forward-half volume. Through three games they’ve produced just 132 inside 50s and 24 goals total. Port, by contrast, are healthier in attack with 42 goals and 161 inside 50s. Even if Port aren’t finishing perfectly, the opportunity count should be in their favour.
If Richmond are going to keep it close, Tim Taranto has to drag them through the contest. He’s averaging 26.3 disposals and a massive 7.7 tackles, plus 14.0 contested possessions a game. Port’s counter is the guy who changes the tempo: Zak Butters is at 29.7 disposals and 7.3 clearances per match, and when he wins it clean, Port’s ball movement suddenly looks like a different sport.
At the MCG, Richmond will have moments. But Port have more ways to score and more midfield punch. We’re backing Port Adelaide to win because their clearance-to-entry connection should create too many shots for a Tigers side that’s already leaking confidence.
West Coast vs Sydney
Prediction: Sydney to win by 40+ points
The market and the models are aligned here: Sydney are the definition of a confident road favourite. They’re 4th (2-1), West Coast are 9th (2-1) but sitting on an 87.30% that tells the real story. The prediction consensus is a clean sweep: 23 from 23 models tip the Swans, with an average margin of 23.2. I’m pushing it further into the 40+ bracket because the matchup is brutal for the Eagles.
Start with the recent history at Perth Stadium: Sydney have won their last three against West Coast, including the 67-point win there last season (118-51). More broadly, the Swans have taken four straight in the rivalry, and when Sydney get on top, the scores can get lopsided quickly.
West Coast’s effort is not the issue. They’re laying 199 tackles across three games, which is elite workload. But tackling is often a symptom of not having the ball, and Sydney are generating enough forward entries to stress any defence: 190 inside 50s for the season is big-time output.
The player to watch is James Rowbottom, who’s setting Sydney’s edge with 9.3 tackles a game. That’s pressure that travels. West Coast’s hope is Jake Waterman staying hot. He’s kicked 8 goals from three games (2.7 a match) and gives them a way to score even when supply is messy.
Sydney’s pressure plus forward-half volume is the combination I trust most this week. We’re backing Sydney to win because they’ll trap the ball in their front half and turn West Coast’s tackling into fatigue.
Melbourne vs Gold Coast
Prediction: Gold Coast to win by 1-39 points
This is the marquee test of the round: Melbourne (8th, 2-1) at the MCG against the unbeaten ladder-leaders Gold Coast (1st, 3-0). The models are strongly Suns (21 from 24, average margin 12.4), and the head-to-head has shifted hard their way recently too: Gold Coast have won two straight against Melbourne, including a 58-point win at the MCG in Round 3 last year (120-62).
What’s different about the Suns right now is they’re not just winning, they’re scoring like a top-four side. They’ve kicked 58 goals in three games and are pumping in 192 inside 50s. Melbourne aren’t exactly toothless (43 goals, 176 inside 50s), but they’re conceding enough that their 2-1 start still comes with a 96.03% percentage warning light.
The key matchup is obvious and unavoidable: Ben King versus Melbourne’s ability to defend the corridor and the drop zone. King leads the competition with 16 goals from three games, and he’s not living off cheapies either: he’s averaging 3.3 marks inside 50 and 6.0 score involvements per match. If Melbourne give him repeat entries, it becomes a long day.
Melbourne will try to drag it into stoppages and aerial contests. Max Gawn is still a presence, already averaging 13.7 contested possessions and 5.7 score involvements. But Gold Coast’s pressure and scoring efficiency is the early-season trend I’m buying.
We’re backing Gold Coast to win because their forward connection is real, and King is currently the most decisive player on the ground in these kinds of games.
Western Bulldogs vs Essendon
Prediction: Western Bulldogs to win by 40+ points
This is the round’s biggest mismatch on paper and it looks that way on the ladder too: the Bulldogs are 2nd at 3-0, Essendon are 17th at 0-3. The models are almost unanimous (23 from 23 Dogs) and the average margin is a ridiculous 49.9. When the numbers are shouting that loudly in Round 4, it’s usually because the matchup is ugly in multiple areas.
The Dogs are scoring freely and doing it with repeat looks: 51 goals from three games and 129 clearances is the profile of a side that starts games on top and stays there. Essendon’s problem is they’re losing the midfield battle and not generating enough to compensate. They’ve managed just 75 clearances and 135 inside 50s across three matches, and you can’t play catch-up footy if you’re not getting entries.
Recent head-to-head at Docklands is a horror show for Bomber fans. The Dogs have blown Essendon away there twice in 2025: 143-50 and 127-36. That’s not “bad luck”, that’s a stylistic issue.
The player who turns dominance into goals is Aaron Naughton. He’s kicked 11 already (3.7 a game), with 3.0 marks inside 50 and 1.7 contested marks per match. If the Dogs win clearance like they’ve been doing, Naughton gets fed.
We’re backing Western Bulldogs to win because they’ll own the middle and generate a score avalanche Essendon simply can’t match.
Hawthorn vs Geelong
Prediction: Hawthorn to win by 1-39 points
Finish the round with a rivalry that always has bite. Hawthorn are 5th (2-1), Geelong are 10th (2-1), and this is the one matchup where the models aren’t in lockstep: Hawthorn get the edge (17 from 24) but the average margin is only 6.9. That feels right. It’s a proper game.
Geelong have dominated the recent head-to-head, winning five straight including the Qualifying Final last year and a seven-point home-and-away win in Round 6, 2025. Even at the MCG, the Cats have enjoyed themselves. So if you’re tipping Hawthorn, you’re making a call on current form, not history.
Form-wise, Hawthorn’s forward half looks more dangerous. They’ve kicked 49 goals from three games and are getting volume with 182 inside 50s. Geelong are generating entries (177 inside 50s) but not finishing at the same clip, sitting on 35 goals so far. That’s the difference between controlling a match and merely staying in it.
The standout watch is Jack Gunston, who’s somehow turned back the clock with 13 goals in three games (4.3 a match). Geelong’s pressure valve is Tom Atkins, averaging 8.0 tackles and 12.7 contested possessions. If Atkins can choke Hawthorn’s midfield exits, the Cats can grind this into their kind of finish.
I’m backing the Hawks anyway. Their scoring power is the one thing Geelong haven’t answered yet this season. We’re backing Hawthorn to win because they’re creating and converting enough chances to finally snap the Cats’ recent dominance.
Looking for the best bookmakers to bet on the AFL?
If you’re having a punt this weekend, do yourself a favour and shop around. Different bookies hang different lines, promos and player markets, and those small edges add up across a season. Here are our top-rated options for the year.
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18+ T&C's Apply. What are you really gambling with? Chances are you're about to lose. Set a Deposit Limit For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au
18+ T&C's Apply. What are you really gambling with? Chances are you're about to lose. Set a Deposit Limit For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au
#AD 18+ T&Cs Apply Imagine what you could be buying instead. For free & confidential support call 180 0858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au
18+ T&C's Apply. What are you really gambling with? Chances are you're about to lose. Set a Deposit Limit For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au
Exclusive 365AUCODE referral code: bet365 does not offer bonus codes in Australia and this referral code does not grant access to offers.18+ T&C's Apply. What are you really gambling with? Chances are you're about to lose. Set a Deposit Limit For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au
FAQ
What’s the best bet type for AFL Round 4?
Early season, I prefer margin ranges and team markets over niche props. Roles and rotations are still settling, but team profiles are already showing through.
Are Gold Coast a genuine top-four team in 2026?
It’s early, but the indicators are real: 3-0, elite percentage (191.04) and they’re scoring heavily (58 goals in three games). The Melbourne game is the first proper MCG exam.
Why are the Western Bulldogs such a strong tip this week?
They’re unbeaten, winning clearances (129) and scoring (51 goals) at a top-tier rate, while Essendon are winless and struggling to generate entries (135 inside 50s across three games).
Should I blindly follow the prediction model consensus?
Use it as a filter, not a bible. When it’s 20-plus models one way, it’s usually telling you the matchup is fundamentally skewed. When it’s closer, that’s where your own read matters.
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