NRL Grand Final Preview, Tips & Predictions

Roosters v Knights at Accor Stadium: the head-to-head, finals form, team news and our betting read for the 2026 NRL Grand Final.

The 2026 NRL Grand Final pairs a club that has made this its business with one that was last in the competition a year ago. The Roosters finished fourth and are into their first decider since 2019. Newcastle took the wooden spoon in 2025, finished seventh this year, and have won three finals in a row away from home to reach their first Grand Final since 2001.

Both sides have already done something the finals system is supposed to make hard. The Roosters lost their qualifying final to Penrith and came back through the semi-finals, and Newcastle never had a home game at all. Catch up on the preliminary final results or follow the whole draw on our NRL finals bracket.

Roosters vs Knights

The head-to-head

Five meetings since 2023 and the Roosters have won all five. The record is one-sided; the games were not. The margins read 2, 2, 4, 14 and 1, so four of the five were decided by four points or fewer, and the average winning margin is 4.6.

The two 2026 meetings show both versions of the fixture. The Roosters won 38-24 at Allianz Stadium in round 7, the only comfortable result in the sample, and then 23-22 at McDonald Jones Stadium in round 21, by a single point with Newcastle already on the rise. Every meeting is on our Knights vs Roosters head-to-head page.

Form and the numbers

The Roosters finished 16-8 with a differential of +118. Penrith beat them 19-12 in a qualifying final, and they have answered with the two biggest scores of the finals series: 46-10 over Cronulla at Allianz and 36-20 over the Dolphins at Suncorp. Sam Walker is back running the side, 27 days on from a syndesmosis injury when he returned against the Dolphins.

Newcastle finished 14-10 with +42, level on 34 points with Cronulla and South Sydney and seventh on differential. Their finals have been built on defence: 20-10 against South Sydney at Allianz, 12-10 against the Warriors at Eden Park and 22-14 against Penrith at Accor Stadium, where they played the whole second half with 12 men. They have conceded 34 points across three finals, all of them on the road.

Roosters vs Knights	Number
Meetings since 2023	5
Series record	Roosters 5, Knights 0
2026 meetings	Roosters 38-24 (round 7), Roosters 23-22 (round 21)
Average winning margin	4.6 points
Decided by four points or fewer	4 of 5
Home-and-away finish	Roosters 4th (16-8, +118), Knights 7th (14-10, +42)
Finals points for and against	Roosters 94-49, Knights 54-34
Days since preliminary final	Roosters 9, Knights 7

 

Team news: Crossland faces the judiciary

Phoenix Crossland looks set to miss the Grand Final. The Newcastle hooker was sent off for the hip drop that broke Nathan Cleary’s leg, and the match review committee referred him straight to the judiciary without a grading, a step kept for the most serious cases. The hearing is on Tuesday night. Losing a first-choice hooker in a Grand Final week is the biggest structural change either side faces.

For the Roosters, Victor Radley is free to play after accepting a $3,000 fine for his Grade 1 dangerous contact charge. Connor Watson is the question: he was stood down for 11 days after a category-one HIA against the Dolphins, and the club is seeking an exemption on the grounds that the injury was wrongly classified. Justin Holbrook went with an unchanged Newcastle 19 for the preliminary final, and both Grand Final teams are presented on Thursday.

The betting angle

Our lean is the Roosters to win. They finished three places higher, they have the extra two days, their attack has put 82 points on two finals opponents, and Newcastle are likely to be without their hooker. Trent Robinson has also coached three Grand Finals and won all three.

The more useful market is the margin. This fixture has produced one comfortable result in five, and Newcastle’s three finals have been decided by 10, 2 and 8 points. A Roosters win inside 12 points is the outcome the evidence supports best; a big Roosters margin needs the Knights’ defence to break in a way it has not all September. One honest caution: in our finals tips we backed the side with the better head-to-head record three times in a week and lost every time, and a 5-0 record between these clubs describes close games, not a gap in quality.

We would be wary of the total. Newcastle’s finals have finished on 30, 22 and 36 points, the Roosters’ last two on 56 each, and a Grand Final is the least representative game of the year for scoring. Check the current market before you bet, because prices will move on Tuesday’s judiciary result and Thursday’s teams.

The Clive Churchill Medal

Best on ground usually goes to a player from the winning side, and usually to a half or a hooker. For the Roosters, Sam Walker has steered both finals wins since his return, Daly Cherry-Evans has shared the kicking, and Mark Nawaqanitawase ran for 329 metres and scored twice against the Dolphins. For Newcastle, Sandon Smith, the halfback the Roosters let go, scored two tries and kicked three goals against Penrith, including an 85-metre intercept in the final minute. He is up against Daly Cherry-Evans in the halves battle of the night. Our full read is on the Clive Churchill Medal page.

Grand Final day

Detail
Match	Sydney Roosters v Newcastle Knights
When	Sunday 4 October 2026, 7:30pm AEDT
Venue	Accor Stadium, Sydney
Broadcast	Nine Network and 9Now
NRLW Grand Final	Roosters v Broncos, 4:00pm AEDT, same venue
Daylight saving	Begins in NSW that morning, so all times are AEDT

 

The storylines

Newcastle, from last to the last game. The Knights took the wooden spoon in 2025. A year later they are one win from a third premiership, after 1997 and 2001, and they have got there without a single home final.

Sandon Smith against his old club. The Roosters let Smith go at the end of last season. He has since become Newcastle’s halfback, and his intercept sealed the preliminary final.

Robinson’s record. The Roosters coach won Grand Finals in 2013, 2018 and 2019 and has never lost one. His side is back in the decider for the first time since the second of those back-to-back titles.

A Roosters double. The Roosters women play Brisbane in the NRLW Grand Final at 4:00pm, a rematch of the 2025 decider. Win both and the Roosters join Brisbane as the only club to take the NRL and NRLW premierships on the same day.

Where to Bet on the NRL Grand Final

Grand Final markets are the deepest of the season: head-to-head, line, margin bands, Clive Churchill Medal, first and anytime try scorer, and same game multis. Prices move through the week as team news lands, so compare before you commit. See our best NRL betting sites guide, and build the day out with our NRL multi tips.

NRL Grand Final Preview FAQs

When is the 2026 NRL Grand Final?

Sunday 4 October 2026 at Accor Stadium in Sydney, kicking off at 7:30pm AEDT, with the NRLW Grand Final at 4:00pm.

Who is in the 2026 NRL Grand Final?

The Sydney Roosters and the Newcastle Knights. The Roosters beat the Dolphins 36-20 and Newcastle beat Penrith 22-14 in the preliminary finals.

What is the Roosters v Knights head-to-head record?

The Roosters have won all five meetings since 2023, but four of them were decided by four points or fewer.

When did Newcastle last play in a Grand Final?

In 2001, when they beat Parramatta to win their second premiership. Their first came in 1997.

More NRL Content

• NRL Grand Final: date, venue, winners and markets
• NRL finals bracket: every fixture and result
• Preliminary finals results: how both games were won
• Knights vs Roosters head-to-head
• NRL premiership odds · Clive Churchill Medal · Dally M Medal
• NRL tips hub · Best NRL betting sites