NRL Preliminary Finals Preview & Predictions

NRL 2026: The Preliminary Finals

Four clubs left, and only one of them has won a premiership this decade. Penrith are minor premiers and into a seventh consecutive preliminary final. The Dolphins had never won a final before this September. Newcastle took the wooden spoon in 2025. The Roosters are the most decorated club still standing and finished fourth.

Both home sides earned their week off by winning a qualifying final; both visitors got here by winning a semi-final in sudden death. Catch up on the Finals Week 2 results, or read how the NRL finals system works if the McIntyre format is unfamiliar.

Dolphins vs Roosters

Friday 25 September, 7:50pm AEST, Suncorp Stadium.

The head-to-head

The seven-game record since 2023 reads 4-3 to the Roosters, which is the least useful number on this page. Every one of those Roosters wins came in 2023, 2024 or 2025. In 2026 the Dolphins have won both meetings and neither was close: 48-10 at Suncorp in round 15, then 26-12 at Allianz Stadium in round 26, three weeks before the finals began. The second of those was an away win against a side that was still playing for a top-four spot. The full record is on our Dolphins vs Roosters head-to-head page.

Form and the numbers

This is the most volatile fixture in the competition. Seven meetings have produced an average margin of 20.9 points and only one game inside a converted try. It has produced a 52-point Roosters win at Suncorp in 2025 and a 38-point Dolphins win at the same ground this year. Whatever happens on Friday, the history says it is unlikely to be decided in the last set.

The rest is a straight trade between freshness and momentum. The Dolphins last played on 12 September, beating the Warriors 26-16 for the first finals win in the club’s history, and have had thirteen days. The Roosters have had six, after dismantling Cronulla 46-10 on Saturday night in the best performance any side has produced this finals series. Daly Cherry-Evans had a try and three assists in that game and Mark Nawaqanitawase scored twice.

Dolphins vs Roosters	Number
Meetings since 2023	7
Series record	Roosters 4, Dolphins 3
2026 meetings	Dolphins 2-0, by 38 and 14
Average margin	20.9 points
Average total	56.9 points
Decided by 6 or fewer	1 of 7
Most recent	Dolphins 26-12, round 26, Allianz Stadium
Days since last game	Dolphins 13, Roosters 6

 

The betting angle

The case for the Dolphins is the 2026 sample and the venue: two wins from two this season, one of them by 38 at this ground, and a home preliminary final in front of a Brisbane crowd. The case for the Roosters is that Saturday night was the best football anyone has played this September, and that the Dolphins have not played a competitive game in a fortnight against an opponent who has just found form.

A word on totals. We leaned on this fixture’s historical scoring average in both semi-finals last week and were wrong in both, in opposite directions. So take the 56.9 average here as a description of what this match-up has done rather than a signal for what it will do. The more defensible read is the margin distribution: one close game in seven, in a fixture that has repeatedly produced blowouts in both directions. If you are playing this game, the line is a more honest market than the total, and a side you fancy is better backed to win well than to win narrowly. Same-game builders for both matches are on our NRL same game multi tips.

Panthers vs Knights

Sunday 27 September, 4:05pm AEST, Accor Stadium.

The head-to-head

Penrith lead this 6-1 since 2023 and won the only 2026 meeting 44-12 at McDonald Jones Stadium in round 8. Newcastle’s single win in the sample came at Carrington Park in Bathurst in 2025, a neutral venue, by 25-6. Two of the seven have been genuine contests, including a one-point Panthers win at McDonald Jones in 2023. The rest have been comfortable. Every meeting is on our Knights vs Panthers head-to-head page.

Form and the numbers

The obvious objection to the head-to-head is that round 8 was five months ago and Newcastle are demonstrably not the side they were then. They have since won two finals, both away from home and both against higher-seeded opposition: 20-10 against the Rabbitohs at Allianz, then 12-10 against the Warriors at Eden Park in front of 48,511. No other club in this year’s eight has had to win twice on the road to reach a preliminary final. Kalyn Ponga passed a head injury assessment on Sunday and is available.

Penrith have had the week off after beating the Roosters 19-12 in their qualifying final, and are into a seventh straight preliminary final. Newcastle have a seven-day turnaround that includes a flight home from Auckland, and Sunday’s game was physically the hardest of the finals so far. The fixture averages 41.4 points, the lowest of any match-up left in the draw.

Panthers vs Knights	Number
Meetings since 2023	7
Series record	Panthers 6, Knights 1
2026 meeting	Panthers 44-12, round 8
Average margin	16.0 points
Average total	41.4 points
Decided by 6 or fewer	1 of 7
Knights finals record 2026	Two wins, both away
Panthers preliminary finals	Seven in a row

 

The betting angle

This is the harder of the two to price honestly, because the two strongest arguments point opposite ways and both are real. The head-to-head is emphatic and recent enough to matter, and Penrith are fresher, at home, and have been here every year since 2020. Against that, the version of Newcastle that lost by 32 in round 8 has almost nothing to do with the one that won at Allianz and Eden Park.

The structural point worth keeping is that this fixture does not produce close games either: one in seven inside six points, and an average margin of 16. A Newcastle win would be an upset on every number available, but the record says that if they do win, they are more likely to win clearly than to sneak it. The same is true in reverse. Outrights for the sides still standing are on our NRL premiership odds page.

What the winners get

The 2026 NRL Grand Final is at Accor Stadium on Sunday 4 October, kicking off at 7:30pm AEDT. Daylight saving begins in New South Wales that morning, so check the clock rather than the habit.

There is a scheduling quirk worth noting. Friday’s winner gets nine days before the Grand Final; Sunday’s winner gets seven. In a season where three of the four remaining sides have already played a sudden-death final, two extra days of recovery is not nothing.

Where to Bet on the NRL Finals

Preliminary final markets move hard between the Tuesday team announcements and kick-off, and the gap between the best and worst price on a line can be worth more than the tip itself. Compare the leading Australian bookmakers in our best NRL betting sites guide.

More NRL Content

• NRL Finals 2026: bracket, fixtures and odds
• Finals Week 2 results: both semi-finals reviewed
• NRL Round-by-Round Predictions: every round of the season
• NRL Match Predictions: every team-vs-team head-to-head
• NRL Premiership Odds · NRL Grand Final · Clive Churchill Medal
• NRL betting hub · Best NRL betting sites