NRL Finals Week 2 Results, Highlights & Expert Analysis

NRL 2026: Finals Week 2 in Focus

Two sudden-death semi-finals, two results that could not have looked less alike. One was over by half-time and finished as the biggest winning margin of the finals series so far. The other was a two-point game settled by goalkicking in front of the largest rugby league crowd New Zealand has hosted.

Both losing sides had finished the regular season above the team that knocked them out, which is now a pattern rather than an upset: in six finals played across the first two weeks, the higher-seeded side has won three. Catch up on the Finals Week 2 preview and the week one wrap.

Roosters 46 def Sharks 10

How it unfolded

Saturday 19 September, Allianz Stadium. The Roosters led 18-10 at the break and then scored five tries after it. Mark Nawaqanitawase scored twice and Daly Cherry-Evans had a try and three try assists, which is the sort of return that justifies a late-career finals signing on its own. Lindsay Collins, Daniel Tupou, Connor Watson, Robert Toia and James Tedesco also crossed. Sione Katoa and Ronaldo Mulitalo scored for Cronulla, whose season ends having won two of their last six.

How our read went

We got the shape of this badly wrong in one specific way. Our preview argued that eight meetings since 2023 had produced an average total of 44.4 points, that finals football historically lands under its regular-season equivalent, and that the under was therefore the structurally supported side. The game produced 56 points and was effectively decided before the hour.

What we did get right was the venue read. We flagged that the Roosters had won at Allianz in round 16 by holding Cronulla to eight, the lowest score in the sample, and that this mattered more than the level 4-4 series record. It did.

Our angle: under 44.5 total points. Lost.

For the complete statistical head-to-head, see our full Roosters vs Sharks head-to-head record.

Knights 12 def Warriors 10

How it unfolded

Sunday 20 September, Eden Park, crowd 48,511. Level 6-6 at half-time. Fletcher Sharpe scored for Newcastle just before the break and Dominic Young early in the second half; Leka Halasima scored both of the Warriors’ tries, the second with ten minutes left. Sandon Smith kicked both of Newcastle’s conversions and Taine Tuaupiki missed both of the Warriors’, a four-point swing in a game decided by two.

The finish was contentious. Three calls in the last seven minutes went Newcastle’s way, including a bunker overturn on a knock-on and a lost Warriors challenge, and objects were thrown at referee Ashley Klein’s crew afterwards. Warriors coach Andrew Webster said he felt officials “were trying to find ways to take it off us”. Kalyn Ponga passed a head injury assessment and is available for the preliminary final.

How our read went

Split result. The venue argument was the right one: we wrote that the Warriors’ 7-2 series lead and four-game winning streak were all built at Go Media or McDonald Jones, that Eden Park was neither, and that Newcastle were the only side left in the draw to have already won a final away from home. Newcastle won.

The totals call was wrong, and wrong in the opposite direction to the other semi. We said the over had history behind it on an average total of 43.9 with both 2026 meetings sailing past it. The game produced 22 points, the lowest total of the finals series.

Our angle: Knights to advance. Won. Over 43.5 total points. Lost.

For the complete statistical head-to-head, see our full Knights vs Warriors head-to-head record.

How our tips went

Match	Our angle	Result	Outcome
Roosters v Sharks	Under the total	Roosters 46-10 (56 points)	Lost
Warriors v Knights	Knights to advance	Knights 12-10	Won
Warriors v Knights	Over the total	22 points	Lost

 

The honest accounting: one from three, and the two that lost were both totals calls built off the same method. We used the fixture’s historical scoring average to pick a side of the line in both games, and in the same weekend that method finished 12 points over in one match and 22 points under in the other. An eight or nine-game sample average tells you where a fixture has sat. It does not tell you what a sudden-death final will do to it, and finals compress and blow out scorelines in ways a regular-season mean cannot see.

The bracket after week two

Club	Where they are
Dolphins	Home preliminary final, Suncorp Stadium, Friday.
Panthers	Home preliminary final, Accor Stadium, Sunday.
Roosters	Through. Travel to Brisbane.
Knights	Through. Travel to Sydney.
Warriors	Eliminated.
Sharks	Eliminated.
Rabbitohs	Eliminated in week one.
Cowboys	Eliminated in week one.

 

The preliminary finals

Match	When (AEST)	Venue
Dolphins v Roosters	Friday 25 September	Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Panthers v Knights	Sunday 27 September	Accor Stadium, Sydney

 

Full analysis of both games is in our preliminary finals preview. The winners meet in the Grand Final at Accor Stadium on Sunday 4 October.

Finals Week 2 talking points

Eden Park worked. 48,511 for the first NRL final played at the ground, and the largest rugby league crowd New Zealand has hosted. The Warriors lost, which will colour how the decision is remembered, but the attendance answered the question the move was asking.

Newcastle’s season keeps getting harder to explain. Wooden spoon in 2025. Now two finals wins, both away from home, both against higher-seeded opposition, and a preliminary final against Penrith. No other side in this year’s eight has had to win on the road twice to get here.

The double chance was worth something after all. Both sides that lost qualifying finals in week one, the Roosters and the Warriors, used their second life differently: one won by 36 and one went out by two. Last week we wrote that this was the week the double chance either pays off or turns out to have been worth nothing. It was both, in the same round.

Goalkicking decided a final. Two tries each at Eden Park. Newcastle kicked both conversions, the Warriors kicked neither. In a competition where the margin between eighth and second is often a handful of points across a season, it came down to four points off the tee in one game.

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