NRL Finals Week 1 Results, Highlights & Expert Analysis

The Dolphins win a final for the first time, Newcastle knock out South Sydney and Penrith reach a seventh straight preliminary final. Every result, how our tips went, and the Week 2 draw.

NRL 2026: Finals Week 1 in Focus

The first week of the finals went against the grain in the two games that mattered most. Both qualifying finals were expected to be tight, and one of them was: Penrith edged the Roosters by seven in a game the market had priced as a comfortable home win. The other was not. The Warriors, second on the ladder and unbeaten in their last five, led the Dolphins 16-8 and then did not score again.

In the elimination finals, the two sides arriving in the worse form both won. Newcastle, wooden spooners in 2025, knocked out a South Sydney team that finished above them. Cronulla, who had won one of their last five, ended North Queensland’s season. Catch up on our Finals Week 1 preview.

Knights 20 def Rabbitohs 10

Friday 11 September, Allianz Stadium. Newcastle led 10-0 inside 27 minutes and South Sydney never properly got to them. It is the completion of the most unusual turnaround in recent memory: the Knights took the wooden spoon in 2025 and have now won a final.

The head-to-head told this story before the game and we said so, then tipped against it. Newcastle had won four of the previous five meetings and averaged 32.2 points against South Sydney to 18.8. We leaned on the Rabbitohs’ better season and their marginally better run home. The ledger was the better guide.

Our tip: Rabbitohs to win by 1-12. Lost.

For the complete statistical head-to-head, see our full Knights vs Rabbitohs head-to-head record.

Dolphins 26 def Warriors 16

Saturday 12 September, Go Media Stadium. The Dolphins’ first finals win, and they did it the hard way. Three sin bins inside the first half made it scrappy, and Taine Tuaupiki kicked five penalty goals as the Warriors built a 16-8 lead. Every one of the Warriors’ 16 points came from Tuaupiki. Then the Dolphins scored three tries in the last twenty minutes and won the try count four to one.

This is the result that most embarrassed our preview. We wrote that six of the previous eight meetings had been decided by a goal or less and that neither side had won by more than four points in two years, and called it the tightest match-up in the bracket. It finished by ten, and the losing side scored all of its points through one goal-kicker. Patterns hold until they do not.

Our tip: Warriors to win by 1-12. Lost.

For the complete statistical head-to-head, see our full Dolphins vs Warriors head-to-head record.

Sharks 26 def Cowboys 16

Saturday 12 September, Allianz Stadium. Cronulla controlled most of this and the ten-point margin flattered North Queensland slightly. Sione Katoa scored twice, including his 100th NRL try.

We called this the most likely upset of the weekend and backed Cronulla anyway, on the grounds that the fixture does not produce close games and that the Sharks had won six of the previous eight by an average of nearly sixteen points. A side arriving on one win from five duly won by ten.

Our tip: Sharks to win by 1-12. Won.

For the complete statistical head-to-head, see our full Sharks vs Cowboys head-to-head record.

Panthers 19 def Roosters 12

Sunday 13 September, CommBank Stadium. Penrith are into a seventh consecutive preliminary final, which is the number that should be leading every report of this game. It was not comfortable: the Roosters kept it to seven in a genuine contest.

Our preview flagged exactly this risk. We noted that the Roosters had beaten Penrith twice in the previous eight and that both wins came at CommBank Stadium, the venue for this game, one of them only three weeks earlier. We still went 13 or more. The winner was right and the margin was not.

Our tip: Panthers to win by 13+. Winner correct, margin wrong.

For the complete statistical head-to-head, see our full Panthers vs Roosters head-to-head record.

How our tips went

Match	Our tip	Result	Outcome
Rabbitohs v Knights	Rabbitohs by 1-12	Knights 20-10	Lost
Warriors v Dolphins	Warriors by 1-12	Dolphins 26-16	Lost
Sharks v Cowboys	Sharks by 1-12	Sharks 26-16	Won, margin correct
Panthers v Roosters	Panthers by 13+	Panthers 19-12	Winner correct, margin wrong

 

Two winners from four, and one of the four margin calls correct. The two qualifying finals were the ones that hurt: we had both home sides and both were beaten or pushed harder than we allowed for.

The bracket after week one

Club	Where they are
Dolphins	Straight to a preliminary final. Week off.
Panthers	Straight to a preliminary final. Week off.
Warriors	Dropped into a semi-final, at home to Newcastle.
Roosters	Dropped into a semi-final, at home to Cronulla.
Knights	Survive. Travel to Auckland.
Sharks	Survive. Travel to Allianz Stadium.
Rabbitohs	Eliminated.
Cowboys	Eliminated.

 

Finals Week 2

Two semi-finals, both sudden death, and no Friday game.

Match	When (AEST)	Venue
Roosters v Sharks	Saturday 19 September, 7:50pm	Allianz Stadium, Sydney
Warriors v Knights	Sunday 20 September, 4:05pm	Eden Park, Auckland

 

The Warriors move to Eden Park, which will host its first NRL final. The winner of Roosters against Cronulla meets the Dolphins in a preliminary final; the winner in Auckland meets Penrith.

Finals Week 1 talking points

The Dolphins have never won a final before this one. A club that entered the competition in 2023 has gone from expansion side to a home preliminary final week in seven seasons of existence, and did it by overturning an eight-point deficit against the side with the second-best record in the competition.

Newcastle’s turnaround is the story of the season. Wooden spoon in 2025, seventh and a finals win in 2026. Whatever happens at Eden Park, that is a full rebuild inside twelve months.

Both elimination finals went to the side in worse form. Cronulla had won one of five, Newcastle had lost their last two, and both won. Finals form and regular-season form are different things, and the market priced the second one.

Penrith keep doing the thing nobody else does. Seven consecutive preliminary finals. No other club in the modern era is close to that run.

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