NRL Finals Week 1 Preview & Predictions

Four games across three days, with Penrith and the Warriors carrying a double chance and the eliminators sudden death. Predictions and head-to-head reads on all four finals.

Four games across three days and the eight is set. Penrith took the minor premiership on percentage from the Warriors, both finishing on 42 points, with the Dolphins third and the Roosters fourth. Cronulla, South Sydney, Newcastle and North Queensland fill five to eight.

The format splits the weekend cleanly. The two qualifying finals carry a double chance: win and you go through to a preliminary final with a week off, lose and you drop into a semi-final. The two elimination finals are sudden death and the loser is done. Catch up on the round 27 results for the final ladder, track the draw on our NRL finals page, and read how the NRL finals format works if the McIntyre system is unfamiliar. Prices move quickly in September so we have left live markets to the bookmakers rather than quoting them here. Model the run home with the NRL Ladder Predictor and check the market on our NRL premiership odds page.

Rabbitohs vs Knights

Elimination final, Friday 11 September at 7:50pm AEST at Allianz Stadium. Sixth against seventh, sudden death.

The two finished level on 34 points, South Sydney ahead on differential, and recent form leans the same way: the Rabbitohs have won four of their last five, Newcastle have split their last four. Alex Johnston has scored 30 tries in 21 games this season, as many as anyone in the finals field.

The head-to-head says something else entirely, and Newcastle’s back three is the reason. Greg Marzhew has 24 tries and 113 tackle breaks, Dominic Young has 20 tries, and Dane Gagai has added 110 tackle breaks from the other side of the field. That is 44 tries from two wingers against a South Sydney defence that has conceded more than any other side left in September.

Head-to-head at a glance

Head-to-head since 2023
Meetings	5, across the last four seasons
Record	Knights 4-1
Average score	Knights 32.2, Rabbitohs 18.8
Biggest win	Knights by 26, Rabbitohs by 2
Decided by a goal or less	2 of 5
2026 series	one win each, both inside four points

 

Every meeting since 2023

Season	Result	Margin
2023 Round 25	Knights 29 v Rabbitohs 10	Knights by 19
2024 Round 25	Rabbitohs 16 v Knights 36	Knights by 20
2025 Round 9	Rabbitohs 4 v Knights 30	Knights by 26
2026 Round 9	Knights 42 v Rabbitohs 38	Knights by 4
2026 Round 19	Rabbitohs 26 v Knights 24	Rabbitohs by 2

 

Read the table top to bottom and it tells a story of a match-up flipping. The first three meetings were Newcastle wins by 19, 20 and 26, and South Sydney’s average of 18.8 points is dragged down by them. The two 2026 games were decided by four points and two points. Whatever the ledger says, these sides produce tight games now, and the Rabbitohs’ only win in the run was a two-pointer. We will take South Sydney on the marginally better season and the better run home, but this is the most likely of the four to go to the wire, and the margin markets are better value than the head-to-head.

Head-to-head: Rabbitohs vs Knights prediction & H2H record →

Warriors vs Dolphins

Qualifying final, Saturday 12 September at 4:05pm AEST at Go Media Stadium in Auckland. Second against third, both carrying a double chance, and the winner earns a week off.

Both sides have won their last five, which makes this the best game of the weekend on form alone. The Warriors finished 18-6 and second only on percentage after finishing level with Penrith on 42 points; the Dolphins were 17-7. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak has 20 tries for the home side and Taine Tuaupiki has made 99 tackle breaks.

The Dolphins counter with the most damaging runner left in the competition. Herbie Farnworth has made 150 tackle breaks at 6.5 a game, more than any player in the finals field, with Jamayne Isaako on 21 tries and Selwyn Cobbo on 17. There is genuinely very little between these two teams on any measure you care to pick.

Head-to-head at a glance

Head-to-head since 2023
Meetings	8, across the last four seasons
Record	4 wins each
Average score	Warriors 21.8, Dolphins 21.5
Biggest win	Dolphins by 24, Warriors by 22
Decided by a goal or less	6 of 8
Last five meetings	four of them decided by 2 points

 

Every meeting since 2023

Season	Result	Margin
2023 Round 14	Warriors 30 v Dolphins 8	Warriors by 22
2023 Round 27	Dolphins 34 v Warriors 10	Dolphins by 24
2024 Round 12	Warriors 24 v Dolphins 20	Warriors by 4
2024 Round 23	Dolphins 34 v Warriors 32	Dolphins by 2
2025 Round 11	Dolphins 12 v Warriors 16	Warriors by 4
2025 Round 22	Warriors 18 v Dolphins 20	Dolphins by 2
2026 Round 8	Warriors 20 v Dolphins 18	Warriors by 2
2026 Round 17	Dolphins 26 v Warriors 24	Dolphins by 2

 

This is the tightest rivalry in the bracket and the numbers are almost comic about it. Eight meetings, four wins each, average scores three tenths of a point apart, and six of the eight decided by a goal or less. The two blowouts were both in 2023, the first season the Dolphins existed. Since then it has been 4, 2, 4, 2, 2 and 2, and neither side has won by more than four points in two years. With nothing to separate them on form or on history, the venue is the tiebreaker, and a Saturday afternoon in Auckland with a week off on the line is a real edge. Warriors, narrowly, and the loser is a long way from finished.

Head-to-head: Warriors vs Dolphins prediction & H2H record →

Sharks vs Cowboys

Elimination final, Saturday 12 September at 7:50pm AEST at Allianz Stadium. Fifth against eighth, sudden death.

On season-long numbers this is the widest gap in the bracket. Cronulla finished on 34 points at 128.5 per cent; North Queensland scraped in on 32 at 87.1, the only side in the eight with a losing points record. Sione Katoa has been the Sharks’ most dangerous attacking weapon with 16 tries and 116 tackle breaks at 6.4 a game, second only to Farnworth among the players still involved.

Form flips it. The Sharks have won one of their last five and limp into September; the Cowboys have split their last four and, more to the point, beat Cronulla 46-34 in their round eight meeting this year, which is the most points Cronulla have conceded to them in four seasons. The two have also met at this ground at this stage of the year before, and that is the more useful precedent.

Head-to-head at a glance

Head-to-head since 2023
Meetings	8, across the last four seasons
Record	Sharks 6-2
Average score	Sharks 33.5, Cowboys 17.8
Biggest win	Sharks by 38, Cowboys by 12
Decided by a goal or less	0 of 8
Finals precedent	2024 semi-final at Allianz, Sharks won 26-18

 

Every meeting since 2023

Season	Result	Margin
2023 Round 9	Sharks 44 v Cowboys 6	Sharks by 38
2023 Round 25	Cowboys 12 v Sharks 32	Sharks by 20
2024 Round 7	Sharks 42 v Cowboys 6	Sharks by 36
2024 Round 21	Cowboys 30 v Sharks 22	Cowboys by 8
2024 finals week two	Sharks 26 v Cowboys 18	Sharks by 8
2025 Round 2	Cowboys 12 v Sharks 36	Sharks by 24
2025 Round 22	Sharks 32 v Cowboys 12	Sharks by 20
2026 Round 8	Cowboys 46 v Sharks 34	Cowboys by 12

 

Three things stand out. This fixture does not produce close games: none of the eight was decided by a goal or less, so back a side and expect a margin rather than a nail-biter. Cronulla have owned it 6-2, with a scoring edge of nearly 16 points a meeting, and every one of their six wins came by eight or more. And they have already beaten these opponents in a sudden-death final at this exact ground, winning a 2024 semi-final 26-18. Against all of that sits the round eight result and a side arriving on one win from five. We will take Cronulla on the far stronger underlying season, with the lowest confidence of the four, and this is the most likely upset on the weekend.

Head-to-head: Sharks vs Cowboys prediction & H2H record →

Panthers vs Roosters

Qualifying final, Sunday 13 September at 4:05pm AEST at CommBank Stadium. First against fourth, both with a double chance.

Penrith are minor premiers at 18-6 with a percentage of 196.8, and the defence is the story: 347 points conceded across 24 games is comfortably the best record in the competition. Thomas Jenkins has 30 tries, Dylan Edwards has made 107 tackle breaks and Brian To’o another 107 with 15 tries of his own. On the raw history this looks like a mismatch, and mostly it has been.

The Roosters have the one result that matters to the other side of the argument. They beat Penrith 12-6 in round 24, and they did it by strangling the game rather than winning a shootout, which is the only method that has ever worked against this side. Their form into September is 2-3 against Penrith’s 3-2, and they have not scored more than 38 points in any meeting in four years.

Head-to-head at a glance

Head-to-head since 2023
Meetings	8, across the last four seasons
Record	Panthers 6-2
Average score	Panthers 31.0, Roosters 12.8
Biggest win	Panthers by 44, Roosters by 6
Decided by a goal or less	3 of 8
Finals precedent	2024 finals week one, Panthers won 30-10

 

Every meeting since 2023

Season	Result	Margin
2023 Round 11	Panthers 48 v Roosters 4	Panthers by 44
2023 Round 15	Roosters 6 v Panthers 30	Panthers by 24
2024 Round 4	Roosters 16 v Panthers 22	Panthers by 6
2024 finals week one	Panthers 30 v Roosters 10	Panthers by 20
2025 Round 2	Panthers 32 v Roosters 38	Roosters by 6
2025 Round 7	Roosters 12 v Panthers 40	Panthers by 28
2026 Round 3	Roosters 4 v Panthers 40	Panthers by 36
2026 Round 24	Panthers 6 v Roosters 12	Roosters by 6

 

Penrith average 31 points in this fixture to Sydney’s 12.8 and have won by 44, 36, 28, 24 and 20 in the run, including at this exact stage of the finals in 2024. The Roosters have never beaten them by more than six, and have managed it exactly twice. Here is the nugget that argues the other way, though: both of those wins came at CommBank Stadium, which is where Sunday’s game is played, and one of them was three weeks ago. That is the strongest case anyone can make for the visitors and it is worth knowing before you bet. We are still taking the Panthers, and by enough to make the week off theirs, but the venue is the reason to keep the stake sensible.

Head-to-head: Panthers vs Roosters prediction & H2H record →

Looking for the best bookmakers to bet on the NRL finals?

Compare the best NRL lines, same game multis and finals promotions at our top-rated Australian bookmakers. For full reviews see our best NRL betting sites guide, and build your NRL multi for the weekend.

NRL Finals Week 1 FAQs

When is NRL finals week one 2026?

Friday 11 to Sunday 13 September. South Sydney play Newcastle at Allianz Stadium on Friday at 7:50pm AEST, the Warriors host the Dolphins in Auckland on Saturday at 4:05pm AEST, Cronulla play North Queensland at Allianz on Saturday at 7:50pm AEST, and Penrith host the Roosters at CommBank Stadium on Sunday at 4:05pm AEST.

Which NRL finals games are sudden death?

The two elimination finals: Rabbitohs against Knights and Sharks against Cowboys. The losers are out. The two qualifying finals, Warriors against Dolphins and Panthers against Roosters, carry a double chance.

What does winning a qualifying final earn?

A week off and a place in a preliminary final. The qualifying-final losers drop into semi-finals against the elimination-final winners the following week.

Who won the 2026 minor premiership?

Penrith, on percentage from the Warriors. Both finished on 42 points from 24 games, with the Panthers at 196.8 per cent to the Warriors’ 174.2.

More NRL Content

• NRL Finals 2026: bracket, fixtures and the full eight
• NRL Round 27 Results: the final ladder and how the minor premiership was decided
• NRL Finals Format: the McIntyre final eight explained
• NRL Round-by-Round Predictions: every round of the season
• NRL Match Predictions: every team-vs-team head-to-head
• NRL Premiership Odds · NRL Ladder Predictor · Dally M Medal
• NRL Grand Final Tips · NRL Multi Tips · Clive Churchill Medal
• NRL betting hub · Best NRL betting sites