NRL Round 22 Preview & Predictions

Round 22 opens with a finals-shaper in Townsville — eighth-placed Cowboys against the second-placed Roosters — and closes with fourth against sixth when red-hot Cronulla host South Sydney at Shark Park. Here are our predictions and head-to-head reads for every game; Manly have the bye.

Round 22 opens on Thursday night in Townsville with a genuine finals-shaper — the eighth-placed Cowboys hosting the second-placed Roosters — and closes with our game of the round, fourth against sixth when red-hot Cronulla host South Sydney at Shark Park on Sunday. Catch up on Round 21 results first, where the Bulldogs stunned the Warriors, the Sharks put 48 on Manly and the Roosters survived Newcastle by a point. Manly have the bye.

Penrith (14-4) lead the ladder and the premiership market from the Roosters, with the Warriors and Sharks rounding out the four. Behind them it is a scramble — the Dolphins, Rabbitohs, Knights and Cowboys hold fifth to eighth with the Bulldogs one win back. Below are our Round 22 predictions and head-to-head reads for every game; track the run home with the NRL Ladder Predictor.

North Queensland Cowboys vs Sydney Roosters

Prediction: Roosters to win by 1-12 points

Thursday night in Townsville carries real September weight. The Cowboys (8th, 11-8) revived their season with a gritty derby win over Brisbane, while the Roosters (2nd, 13-5) escaped Newcastle by a single point and have now won three straight without hitting top gear.

Queensland Country Bank Stadium is a genuine fortress and the sources are split, but the Roosters’ class in the big moments gets the nod — inside two converted tries, and the round’s best contest until Sunday.

Head-to-head: North Queensland Cowboys vs Sydney Roosters prediction & H2H record →

St George Illawarra Dragons vs Dolphins

Prediction: Dolphins to win by 13+ points

The most one-sided read of the round. The Dragons (17th, 2-16) were run over by the Titans last week and have won twice all year; the Dolphins (5th, 11-7) come off the bye fresh, having belted the Cowboys in their last outing.

Every source we track is unanimous on the Dolphins, and so are we — fresh legs against a spent side, by 13 or more at WIN Stadium.

Head-to-head: St George Illawarra Dragons vs Dolphins prediction & H2H record →

Melbourne Storm vs Canterbury Bulldogs

Prediction: Bulldogs to win by 1-12 points

A fascinating Friday-nighter at AAMI Park. Melbourne (12th, 8-11) are having their worst season in a generation and fell in a 54-point shootout against Souths, while the Bulldogs (9th, 9-9) produced the upset of Round 21 in shutting down the Warriors 18-6 with Stephen Crichton outstanding.

Tipping against the Storm at home still feels unnatural, but the Dogs’ defence is the best thing either side owns right now — Canterbury, inside two converted tries.

Head-to-head: Melbourne Storm vs Canterbury Bulldogs prediction & H2H record →

Gold Coast Titans vs New Zealand Warriors

Prediction: Warriors to win by 1-12 points

Upset alert. The Titans (13th, 6-12) snapped into form with 38 points on the Dragons, while the Warriors (3rd, 12-6) were held to six by Canterbury and have gone off the boil since the representative window.

The sources are split almost down the middle here. We side with class over momentum — the Warriors to bounce back at Cbus — but keep stakes small and the margin inside 13.

Head-to-head: Gold Coast Titans vs New Zealand Warriors prediction & H2H record →

Penrith Panthers vs Canberra Raiders

Prediction: Panthers to win by 1-12 points

The Panthers (1st, 14-4) take this one to Mudgee, and the neutral venue is about the only thing Canberra have going for them on paper — except the Raiders (11th, 9-10) have won three straight, including a 56-10 annihilation of the Tigers.

Penrith responded to their Brisbane blip by grinding down Parramatta, and Nathan Cleary in control mode is still the competition’s safest bet. Panthers, but the Raiders’ scoring form keeps it inside two converted tries.

Head-to-head: Penrith Panthers vs Canberra Raiders prediction & H2H record →

Brisbane Broncos vs Newcastle Knights

Prediction: Broncos to win by 1-12 points

A live upset market in reverse: the Broncos (14th, 6-12) sit well below the Knights (7th, 11-8) on the ladder, yet most judges have Brisbane favourites at Suncorp — and we agree. Newcastle have lost three straight by a combined seven points, the cruellest run in the comp, while Brisbane pushed the Cowboys all the way in the derby.

Suncorp at night lifts this Broncos side a level. Brisbane inside 13, with the Knights’ recent knack of staying close making the margin market the play.

Head-to-head: Brisbane Broncos vs Newcastle Knights prediction & H2H record →

Cronulla Sharks vs South Sydney Rabbitohs

Prediction: Sharks to win by 1-12 points

The game of the round: fourth hosts sixth at Shark Park with top-four maths on the line. Cronulla (4th, 12-6) have won four straight and are the form side of the competition — 48-12 over Manly the exclamation mark — while Souths (6th, 10-8) outgunned Melbourne in a shootout and can score with anyone.

Every source we track is on the Sharks, and their edge defence has been the best in the league across this run. Cronulla, inside two converted tries in a high-quality contest.

Head-to-head: Cronulla Sharks vs South Sydney Rabbitohs prediction & H2H record →

Wests Tigers vs Parramatta Eels

Prediction: Eels to win by 1-12 points

A western Sydney derby between two sides playing for pride. The Tigers (16th, 7-12) have lost six straight and shipped 56 to Canberra last week; the Eels (15th, 6-12) pushed Penrith for long stretches and get key troops back through the spine.

The judges are unanimous on Parramatta and the Tigers’ defence is in pieces — Eels by up to two converted tries at CommBank, with the derby factor keeping it from becoming a rout.

Head-to-head: Wests Tigers vs Parramatta Eels prediction & H2H record →

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NRL Round 22 FAQs

When is NRL Round 22 2026?

Round 22 runs from Thursday 30 July to Sunday 2 August 2026, opening with Cowboys v Roosters in Townsville and closing with Wests Tigers v Eels at CommBank Stadium. Manly have the bye.

What is the game of the round?

Sharks v Rabbitohs at Shark Park on Sunday — fourth against sixth, with Cronulla riding a four-game winning streak and South Sydney fighting to lock down a finals spot.

Who are the biggest favourites in Round 22?

The Dolphins (v the Dragons), Parramatta (v the Wests Tigers) and Cronulla (v South Sydney) are the strongest consensus tips of the round.

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