NRL Round 23 Preview & Predictions

Our NRL Round 23 preview and predictions for all eight games from 6 to 9 August 2026, headlined by the Warriors hosting ladder-leaders Penrith in Auckland on Friday night.

Round 23 opens on the Gold Coast on Thursday night, but the round turns on Friday in Auckland, where the Warriors host Penrith in a third-against-first Friday-nighter that is the closest thing to a finals preview on the calendar. Catch up on Round 22 results first, where the Roosters put 82 points on the Cowboys, Newcastle stunned the Broncos at Suncorp and Cronulla made it five straight.

Penrith (15-4) are four points clear on top with a plus 308 differential and remain favourites for the premiership. The genuine drama is at the other end of the eight: Souths, Canterbury and the Cowboys are all locked on 26 points, separated only by differential, and Manly sit tenth on 24 with the best differential of that group at plus 90. Wests Tigers have the bye. Here are our Round 23 predictions and head-to-head reads for every game.

Gold Coast Titans vs North Queensland Cowboys

Prediction: North Queensland Cowboys to win by 1-12 points

A Thursday-night opener on the Gold Coast with the eight still live for one of them. The Cowboys (9th, 11-9) are level with Canterbury on 26 points and miss the top eight only on differential after being humiliated 82-12 by the Roosters last week. The Titans (14th, 6-13) were beaten 42-6 by the Warriors.

North Queensland are $1.54 on the road, the Titans $2.35. Backing a side off a 70-point loss takes some nerve, but the Cowboys have to win to stay in the race and the Titans have nothing left to play for. Cowboys inside two tries.

Head-to-head: Gold Coast Titans vs North Queensland Cowboys prediction & H2H record →

New Zealand Warriors vs Penrith Panthers

Prediction: Penrith Panthers to win by 1-12 points

Our game of the round: third against first, in Auckland, on a Friday night. Penrith (1st, 15-4) are four points clear with a differential of plus 308, the best in the competition by a distance, and strolled past Canberra 42-18. The Warriors (3rd, 13-6) answered their Bulldogs loss by putting 42 on the Titans.

The Panthers are $1.48 even away from home, the Warriors $2.50. Go Media Stadium is the hardest away trip in the game and this is the closest thing to a finals preview on the calendar. Penrith, but narrowly.

Head-to-head: New Zealand Warriors vs Penrith Panthers prediction & H2H record →

Sydney Roosters vs Canterbury Bulldogs

Prediction: Sydney Roosters to win by 13+ points

Second against eighth at Allianz. The Roosters (2nd, 14-5) put 82 points on the Cowboys last week and sit on a differential of plus 155. Canterbury (8th, 10-9) have won two on the trot including a 36-22 result in Melbourne, but their differential of minus 44 is the only negative figure inside the eight.

The Roosters are $1.30, the Bulldogs $3.35. Canterbury’s defence travels better than their attack does, and 82 points suggests the Roosters have found another gear. Roosters by more than two tries.

Head-to-head: Sydney Roosters vs Canterbury Bulldogs prediction & H2H record →

Melbourne Storm vs Manly Sea Eagles

Prediction: Manly Sea Eagles to win by 1-12 points

A Melbourne home game played in Perth, and the market does not like the hosts. The Storm (12th, 8-12) are enduring their worst season in a generation and lost 36-22 to the Bulldogs at home. Manly (10th, 9-10) sit two spots higher but carry a differential of plus 90 against Melbourne’s minus 26.

The Sea Eagles are $1.61 and the Storm $2.20, which tells you how far the aura has slipped. HBF Park is neutral ground for both, and on differential Manly are the better side. Sea Eagles inside two tries.

Head-to-head: Melbourne Storm vs Manly Sea Eagles prediction & H2H record →

Dolphins vs Brisbane Broncos

Prediction: Dolphins to win by 13+ points

The Brisbane derby at Suncorp, and the gap between these two has never been wider. The Dolphins (5th, 12-7) came off the bye to see off the Dragons and hold fifth with a differential of plus 90. The Broncos (15th, 6-13) were stunned 30-6 at home by Newcastle and have lost 13 of 19.

The Dolphins are $1.37, Brisbane $3.00. Derbies invite upsets and the Broncos will lift for this one, but the Dolphins are chasing a top-four spot. Dolphins by more than two tries.

Head-to-head: Dolphins vs Brisbane Broncos prediction & H2H record →

South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Parramatta Eels

Prediction: South Sydney Rabbitohs to win by 13+ points

Souths (7th, 10-9) lost the game of the round to Cronulla 32-16 and now need to protect seventh from the Bulldogs and Cowboys, both level with them on 26 points. Parramatta (13th, 7-12) edged the Tigers derby 16-13 but have a differential of minus 179.

The Rabbitohs are $1.37, the Eels $3.00. Souths have the better roster and far more to play for; the only question is whether they cover. Rabbitohs by more than two tries.

Head-to-head: South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Parramatta Eels prediction & H2H record →

Canberra Raiders vs Newcastle Knights

Prediction: Canberra Raiders to win by 1-12 points

The market’s most surprising call of the round. Canberra (11th, 9-11) were beaten 42-18 by Penrith, while Newcastle (6th, 12-8) stunned the Broncos 30-6 at Suncorp and sit inside the eight.

Yet the Raiders are $1.61 at GIO Stadium and the Knights $2.20. That is the home-ground premium at Canberra doing the work, and the travel is real for Newcastle. We will follow the market and take the Raiders narrowly, but this is the game we are least confident about.

Head-to-head: Canberra Raiders vs Newcastle Knights prediction & H2H record →

St George Illawarra Dragons vs Cronulla Sharks

Prediction: Cronulla Sharks to win comfortably

The Sunday closer and the shortest price of the round. Cronulla (4th, 13-6) have won five straight, the latest a 32-16 win over Souths, and are chasing a top-two finish with a differential of plus 177. The Dragons (17th, 2-17) have won twice all year and sit bottom with minus 273.

The Sharks are $1.14, the Dragons $5.00. There is no value in the head-to-head at that price. If you want this game, the line or the total is the only sensible way in.

Head-to-head: St George Illawarra Dragons vs Cronulla Sharks prediction & H2H record →

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NRL Round 23 FAQs

When is NRL Round 23 2026?

Round 23 runs from Thursday 6 August to Sunday 9 August 2026, opening with the Gold Coast Titans v North Queensland Cowboys at Cbus Super Stadium and closing with St George Illawarra v Cronulla at Jubilee Stadium.

What is the game of the round?

New Zealand Warriors v Penrith Panthers at Go Media Stadium on Friday night. Third against first, and Penrith are favourites even on the hardest away trip in the competition.

Which team has the bye in Round 23?

Wests Tigers. Every other club plays, which is why there are eight games rather than the usual full slate.

Who are the biggest favourites in Round 23?

Cronulla ($1.14 against the Dragons) is the shortest price of the round, followed by the Roosters ($1.30 against Canterbury), the Dolphins and Souths (both $1.37).

Who is fighting for the top eight?

South Sydney, Canterbury and North Queensland are level on 26 points in seventh, eighth and ninth, split only by points differential, with Manly tenth on 24. Canterbury are the vulnerable one: their minus 44 differential is the only negative figure inside the eight.

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