NRL Round 14 Preview & Predictions

Round 14 is a full, eight-game program squeezed between Origin camps, and it’s loaded with storylines: the competition leaders on the road, a couple of genuine hoodoos, and a King’s Birthday Monday closer. Catch up on last week first (results here: our NRL Round 13 results & analysis), because the ladder is starting to separate the contenders from the pack. The Warriors have the bye.

The headline acts: Penrith (1st) travel to face Jarome Luai and his old Wests Tigers teammates; Canberra try to extend a genuine hoodoo over the Roosters in a tightening premiership race; and Melbourne host an in-form Newcastle in the game of the round. Want every matchup in one place? See our NRL match predictions hub. Below are our NRL Round 14 predictions and best NRL bets for all eight games.

Sea Eagles vs Rabbitohs

Sea Eagles to win by 1-12 points

The Thursday opener at 4 Pines Park (7:50pm AEST) is a top-six derby: Manly are fifth, Souths sixth, and there’s barely a cigarette paper between them. The head-to-head reflects that, locked at 2-2 across recent meetings — but the Sea Eagles took the most recent clash 30-12 and they’re at home.

Manly’s edge is their spine when it’s fit. Tom Trbojevic has six tries in just six games, and halfback Jamal Fogarty is steering the ship with 11 try assists. Souths are dangerous through Latrell Mitchell (11 tries, seven try assists in nine games) and Alex Johnston, whose 15 tries are among the competition’s best, with Cody Walker (nine try assists) pulling the strings.

If Trbojevic and Fogarty get front-foot ball, Manly’s right edge is the difference. We’re backing the Sea Eagles to edge a tight one at home.

Head-to-head: Sea Eagles vs Rabbitohs prediction & H2H record →

Storm vs Knights

Storm to win by 1-12 points

Game of the round at AAMI Park (Friday 6:00pm AEST). Newcastle arrive fourth and in form; Melbourne sit lower than usual on the ladder but remain a different animal at home. The H2H is 2-2 recently, with the Storm winning the last two meetings.

Melbourne’s control runs through Jahrome Hughes, who leads the entire NRL with 16 try assists, while winger Sualauvi Faalogo (12 tries, 2,655 run metres) provides the strike. Newcastle’s threat is their back three: Greg Marzhew (15 tries) and Dominic Young (14 tries) are a handful, and Bradman Best has 10 try assists from just seven games.

The Knights can absolutely win this, but Melbourne’s big-game composure and Hughes’ control at AAMI tilt it. We’re backing the Storm in a tight one.

Head-to-head: Storm vs Knights prediction & H2H record →

Raiders vs Roosters

Raiders to win by 1-12 points

The Roosters are third and clearly the more credentialed side, but this fixture has become a genuine problem for them: Canberra have won the last three meetings and lead the recent head-to-head 3-1. Throw in a Friday night at GIO Stadium (8:00pm AEST) and the Raiders are live underdogs — arguably favourites.

Canberra’s Kaeo Weekes (eight tries, 2,026 run metres) has been one of the buys of the year from fullback. The Roosters counter with the league’s premier workhorse in James Tedesco (220.7 run metres a game, eight try assists) and the aerial threat of Daniel Tupou (eight tries), with young half Sam Walker (nine try assists) the creative spark.

Class says Roosters; the venue and the hoodoo say Raiders. We’re backing Canberra to make it four straight over the Tricolours.

Head-to-head: Raiders vs Roosters prediction & H2H record →

Cowboys vs Dolphins

Dolphins to win by 1-12 points

A Townsville Saturday-nighter (5:30pm AEST) between two sides separated by two ladder spots — Cowboys ninth, Dolphins seventh. The recent history is one-sided, though: the Dolphins have won the last three, including a stunning 58-4 result in 2025, and lead the recent series 4-2.

North Queensland generate plenty through Scott Drinkwater (13 try assists, seven tries) and co-pilot Tom Dearden (11 try assists). The Dolphins answer with a balanced spread: Jamayne Isaako (10 tries), the strike of Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (seven tries, seven assists), and the calm game management of Isaiya Katoa (10 try assists).

Townsville and a wounded Cowboys outfit make this closer than the recent scorelines, but the Dolphins’ edge in the halves wins it. We’re backing the Dolphins.

Head-to-head: Cowboys vs Dolphins prediction & H2H record →

Broncos vs Titans

Broncos to win by 13+ points

Suncorp on Saturday night (7:35pm AEST) should be straightforward. Brisbane (11th) are chasing the eight; the Titans sit 16th and travelling to Brisbane is about as tough as it gets. The Broncos have won the last three in this fixture, including a 26-12 win earlier in 2026.

Brisbane’s playmaking through Ezra Mam (nine try assists) gives them the cleaner attacking structure. The Titans’ bright spots are their yardage runners — Phillip Sami (2,303 run metres) and fullback Keano Kini (2,022) — but they’ll be doing it tough against a Broncos pack with a point to prove at home.

We’re backing the Broncos to control this one and win comfortably.

Head-to-head: Broncos vs Titans prediction & H2H record →

Wests Tigers vs Panthers

Panthers to win by 13+ points

The Sunday-afternoon headliner at CommBank Stadium (2:00pm AEST) has a juicy subplot: Jarome Luai (nine try assists) lines up against the Penrith side he won four premierships with. Sentiment aside, the gap is real — the Panthers are top of the table and have won the last three meetings, including a 36-2 demolition in 2025.

Penrith are humming. Winger Thomas Jenkins leads the NRL with 18 tries, halfback Nathan Cleary has 15 try assists, and fullback Dylan Edwards tops the competition for run metres (2,662). That’s a complete spine against a Tigers side still finding consistency.

Luai will be desperate, but the Panthers are simply a level above right now. We’re backing Penrith to win this comfortably.

Head-to-head: Wests Tigers vs Panthers prediction & H2H record →

Sharks vs Dragons

Sharks to win by 13+ points

The Shire derby at Sharks Stadium (Sunday 4:05pm AEST) pits eighth against 17th. Cronulla have owned this fixture long-term (5-1 in recent meetings), although the Dragons did pinch the most recent clash 22-14, so the Sharks will want to set the record straight.

Cronulla’s halves are the story: Braydon Trindall (15 try assists) and Nicholas Hynes (11) give them two genuine creators, with hooker Blayke Brailey (10 try assists) adding tempo and centre KL Iro (nine tries) the finishing power. The Dragons, anchored to the foot of the table, will need to scrap and frustrate to stay in it.

Home, rested and with the better spine, we’re backing the Sharks to win this with room to spare.

Head-to-head: Sharks vs Dragons prediction & H2H record →

Bulldogs vs Eels

Bulldogs to win by 1-12 points

The King’s Birthday Monday closer at Accor Stadium (4:05pm AEST) is the round’s genuine coin-flip: a Western Sydney derby between 14th (Bulldogs) and 15th (Eels). Parramatta lead the recent head-to-head 4-3 and won the 2026 meeting emphatically (38-20), so the Bulldogs owe them one — and they’re at home for the holiday.

Canterbury lean on workhorse Connor Tracey (1,808 run metres) to get them rolling forward, while the Eels’ young half Ronald Volkman (six try assists in seven games) has shown flashes as a creator. With both sides desperate for a win to keep their seasons alive, expect a tight, error-strewn arm-wrestle.

The earlier loss stings, but home advantage on King’s Birthday nudges it. We’re backing the Bulldogs to bounce back in a close one.

Head-to-head: Bulldogs vs Eels prediction & H2H record →

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FAQ

What are the best NRL Round 14 predictions to build around?
Penrith and Brisbane are the two most confident plays this week — both are at home (or away to a bottom side), in form, and own the recent head-to-head against their opponents.

Which match looks most likely to be close?
Bulldogs vs Eels on King’s Birthday is the genuine coin-flip — two sides level on the ladder, with Parramatta having won the most recent meeting.

What’s the upset to watch?
Canberra over the Roosters. Despite the Roosters sitting third, the Raiders have won the last three meetings and are at home at GIO Stadium.

Who are the key players to watch in Round 14?
Thomas Jenkins (18 tries) and Nathan Cleary (15 try assists) for Penrith, Jahrome Hughes (16 try assists) for Melbourne, and James Tedesco (220.7 run metres a game) for the Roosters.

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• NRL Round 13 Results & Analysis
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