NRL Round 27 Preview & Predictions

Round 27 is the last of the regular season and every game is about seeding, not qualification. The Warriors and Penrith are level on 40 points and separated by one point of for-and-against, with Penrith closing the round. Our predictions and head-to-head reads for all eight games.

Round 27 is the last of the regular season and, unusually, none of it is about who makes the eight. That was settled last week. Every game this weekend is about seeding, and the biggest prize is the closest: the Warriors and Penrith are both on 40 points, separated by a single point of for-and-against, plus 309 to plus 308. Catch up on Round 26 results first, where the Dolphins won at Allianz to go above the Roosters and Parramatta upset Cronulla by 20.

The draw has set the minor premiership up about as well as it could. The Warriors host Manly on Saturday afternoon and Penrith host Wests Tigers in the last game of the round on Sunday, so Penrith will know exactly what margin they need before they kick off. Here are our Round 27 predictions and head-to-head reads for all eight games, with live prices left to the bookmakers rather than quoted here. Model the finals bracket with the NRL Ladder Predictor, check the market on our NRL premiership odds page and confirm your side at NRL team lists.

Bulldogs vs Broncos

Prediction: Bulldogs to win by 13+ points

Round 27 opens on Thursday night at Accor Stadium with both sides already out of it. Canterbury are tenth on 28 points and cannot reach the eight now that the top eight is locked, and Brisbane are fifteenth on 20 with a differential of minus 220, the second worst in the competition.

Canterbury lost 24-10 to Penrith last week, which is no disgrace, and their differential of minus 46 is a long way better than Brisbane’s. The Broncos were beaten 46-20 by Melbourne at Suncorp and have conceded 40 or more repeatedly through the back half of the year. A dead rubber flatters neither side, but the gap in quality is wide enough that Canterbury should win this by more than two converted tries at home.

Head-to-head: Bulldogs vs Broncos prediction & H2H record →

Titans vs Dolphins

Prediction: Dolphins to win by 13+ points

Friday evening at Cbus Super Stadium, and the Dolphins have plenty to play for. They are third on 38 points after beating the Roosters 26-12 at Allianz, a result that lifted them into the top four proper, and they hold third by four points of differential over the Roosters at plus 152 to plus 148. Third and fourth are the last two double chances.

Gold Coast are sixteenth on 18 points with a differential of minus 182 and lost 42-22 at home to South Sydney last week. The Dolphins have won their last four and need percentage as much as the two points, because the difference between third and fourth may well come down to margins on Friday night. Take the Dolphins to win comfortably.

Head-to-head: Titans vs Dolphins prediction & H2H record →

Rabbitohs vs Roosters

Prediction: Roosters to win by 1-12 points

Our game of the round: Friday night at Allianz Stadium, and both sides need it. The Roosters are fourth on 38 points and were beaten by the Dolphins last week, a loss that cost them third and the better half of the draw. South Sydney are sixth on 32 after putting 42 on the Titans, and they are the only one of the three sides on 32 points with a positive differential at plus 83.

This is the game of the weekend on stakes alone. The Roosters are chasing third and cannot afford a second straight defeat; Souths are trying to hold sixth ahead of Newcastle, who collect two points on the bye, and North Queensland. A derby with real consequences on both sides is rarely a comfortable night for the better team. Take the Roosters, but this is a one-score game.

Head-to-head: Rabbitohs vs Roosters prediction & H2H record →

Warriors vs Sea Eagles

Prediction: Warriors to win by 13+ points

Saturday afternoon at Go Media Stadium, and the minor premiership starts here. The Warriors are first on 40 points at plus 309, one point of differential clear of Penrith, and they play more than 24 hours before the Panthers. Whatever they do on Saturday becomes the target.

Manly are ninth on 28 and out of the finals, but they are not a free hit: they have the best differential of any side outside the eight at plus 100 and they beat the Dragons 44-10 last week. The Warriors beat Newcastle 46-32 and have been the most complete side in the competition for two months. They need to win, and they need to win big enough to leave Penrith a real task. Expect them to try.

Head-to-head: Warriors vs Sea Eagles prediction & H2H record →

Cowboys vs Raiders

Prediction: Cowboys to win by 1-12 points

Saturday evening in Townsville, and North Queensland are trying to climb out of eighth. They are level on 32 points with South Sydney and Newcastle but well behind both on differential at minus 64, so eighth is where they sit unless results fall their way. Eighth means the hardest possible road in September.

Canberra are twelfth on 26 after the bye and their differential of minus 65 is almost identical to the Cowboys’. That makes this closer than the ladder positions suggest. North Queensland beat Wests Tigers 24-10 last week and have the stronger reason to be there, but the Raiders have nothing to lose and Townsville has been a harder place to win than the Cowboys’ record implies. Take the Cowboys inside two converted tries.

Head-to-head: Cowboys vs Raiders prediction & H2H record →

Sharks vs Storm

Prediction: Sharks to win by 1-12 points

Saturday night at Ocean Protect Stadium. Cronulla are fifth on 34 points and, with a differential of plus 153 that is better than both sides in the top four below the Warriors and Penrith, fifth is effectively locked. What is not locked is momentum: they were beaten 38-18 by Parramatta last week, comfortably their worst result in months, and they go into a final without the double chance.

Melbourne are eleventh on 26 and out, but they beat Brisbane 46-20 and have been better than their ladder position for a while. The Storm have no reason to hold anything back and Cronulla have every reason to want a performance before September. Take the Sharks at home, but not by much: this is the kind of fixture where the side with nothing to lose keeps it close.

Head-to-head: Sharks vs Storm prediction & H2H record →

Dragons vs Eels

Prediction: Eels to win by 13+ points

Sunday afternoon at WIN Stadium, and it is the last game of the season for both. St George Illawarra are last on 14 points with a differential of minus 327, the worst in the competition, and they were beaten 44-10 by Manly last week.

Parramatta are thirteenth on 24 but they arrive on the back of the best result of their season, a 38-18 win over Cronulla that came out of nowhere and cost the Sharks real ground. The Eels have found something late and the Dragons have not won since the middle of August. Wollongong keeps games honest, but on last week’s evidence this is a mismatch. Take Parramatta to finish the year well.

Head-to-head: Dragons vs Eels prediction & H2H record →

Panthers vs Wests Tigers

Prediction: Panthers to win by 13+ points

Sunday afternoon at CommBank Stadium, the last game of the regular season, and the one that decides the J J Giltinan Shield. Penrith are second on 40 points at plus 308, one point of differential behind the Warriors, and they will know the exact margin required by the time they kick off.

Wests Tigers are fourteenth on 22 with a differential of minus 226 and lost 24-10 in Townsville last week. This is close to the ideal opponent for a side that needs to win by a specific number: Penrith beat Canterbury 24-10 last week and have the most reliable big-margin performance in the competition. The market shape barely matters here. The question is not whether Penrith win, it is whether they win by enough, and they will be trying to.

Head-to-head: Panthers vs Wests Tigers prediction & H2H record →

Newcastle Knights have the bye

Newcastle are the only side out this week and the bye works in their favour. An NRL bye is worth two competition points, so the Knights move from 32 to 34 without taking the field, having already played 24 games. That guarantees they finish above any side on 32 that fails to win, and it means South Sydney and North Queensland both have to take care of their own business on the weekend to finish above them. Newcastle’s differential of plus 42 cannot improve, which is the catch if either side draws level.

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NRL Round 27 FAQs

When is NRL Round 27 2026?

Round 27 runs from Thursday 3 September to Sunday 6 September. It opens with Canterbury against Brisbane at Accor Stadium on Thursday night and closes with Penrith against Wests Tigers at CommBank Stadium on Sunday afternoon.

Which team has the bye in Round 27?

Newcastle. An NRL bye is worth two competition points, so the Knights finish on 34 points without playing, which matters to South Sydney and North Queensland in the race for sixth, seventh and eighth.

Who can win the NRL minor premiership?

The Warriors or Penrith. Both are on 40 points and the Warriors lead by a single point of for-and-against, plus 309 to plus 308. The Warriors host Manly on Saturday afternoon and Penrith host Wests Tigers in the final game on Sunday, so Penrith will know the margin they need before kick-off.

Is the NRL top eight already decided?

Yes. The eight was settled in Round 26. Ninth and tenth are on 28 points and can reach 30 at most, while eighth-placed North Queensland are already on 32. Round 27 decides the order, not the qualifiers.

What is the game of the round?

South Sydney against the Sydney Roosters at Allianz on Friday night. The Roosters are fourth and chasing third after losing to the Dolphins, and Souths are sixth and trying to hold that spot ahead of Newcastle and North Queensland.

Which places are still moving in Round 27?

First and second between the Warriors and Penrith, third and fourth between the Dolphins and the Roosters, and sixth, seventh and eighth between South Sydney, Newcastle and North Queensland, who are all on 32 points before Newcastle’s bye. Cronulla are effectively locked into fifth.

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