AFL Finals Week 2 Results: Highlights & Expert Analysis

Sep 7, 2026

Hawthorn beat the minor premiers by 32 in Perth and Sydney put 141 on Brisbane, so the two home preliminary finals belong to the fourth and second seeds. Geelong ended Carlton's run and Adelaide won their first final in nine years. All four results, the bracket and what it means.

Hawthorn beat the minor premiers in Perth and Sydney put 141 on Brisbane, so the two home preliminary finals belong to the fourth and second seeds. Carlton and the Western Bulldogs are out. See our round-by-round predictions →

AFL 2026: Finals Week 2 in Focus

Week two of the finals series did what the Wildcard Round had already hinted at: it ignored the ladder. Fremantle finished minor premiers on 76 points with the best percentage in the competition and lost their qualifying final at home by 32. Sydney, second, went the other way and produced the highest score of the finals so far. Both elimination finals went to the higher seed, so the two Wildcard Round winners are gone and the eight is down to six.

Catch up on the Wildcard Round results and our week two preview.

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Hawthorn tear up the form book at Optus Stadium

Hawthorn 10.12 (72) def. Fremantle 5.10 (40)

The result of the finals series so far, and not a close one. Fremantle had lost twice at Optus Stadium all season and had the best percentage in the competition at 137.2; Hawthorn, fourth and level on 64 points with Brisbane, won by 32 on the road on a Thursday night. Five goals is the lowest score Fremantle have managed at home this year.

The mechanism was pressure rather than polish. Hawthorn’s 10.12 is not a dominant scoreline in isolation; it was dominant because Fremantle could not move the ball cleanly enough to use their own forward line. Hawthorn’s reward is the biggest one available in week two: a home preliminary final, with a week off first.

We had Fremantle to win by 1-12 points, on the basis that a qualifying final at Optus was the single biggest home-ground edge in the game. The venue read was right and the tip was wrong: it was the wrong side of the ledger entirely, and Hawthorn’s two drawn games during the season look a lot less like softness now.

For the complete statistical head-to-head, see our full Fremantle vs Hawthorn head-to-head record.

Dangerfield turns the clock back as Geelong end Carlton’s run

Geelong 14.23 (107) def. Carlton 11.8 (74)

Carlton’s season, which had already outrun its ladder position, ended at the MCG. They led by 21 points in the second quarter and were three points down at the main break, then Geelong kicked 10 goals to six after half-time and won by 33. Patrick Dangerfield kicked five.

The 14.23 is the number worth keeping. Geelong kicked 23 behinds and still won by five goals, which means the margin understates how comprehensively they controlled the second half. A more accurate day in front of goal turns this into a rout.

We had Geelong by 13+ points and that is exactly what happened, for exactly the reason we gave: Carlton were playing their second final in seven days against a side that had been rested since the last round and was clear of them on every season-long measure. Carlton finished tenth and won a final; that is a good year.

For the complete statistical head-to-head, see our full Geelong vs Carlton head-to-head record.

Sydney produce the score of the finals at the SCG

Sydney 21.15 (141) def. Brisbane 13.10 (88)

Our game of the weekend turned into the least competitive of the four. Sydney kicked 21 goals and won by 53, which on a ground that usually rewards contested, low-scoring football is the most emphatic performance of the finals to date. Brisbane’s 13.10 would have been competitive against almost anyone else on the weekend.

Sydney join Hawthorn with a home preliminary final. Brisbane drop into a semi-final at the Gabba, which is a considerably better fallback than Fremantle’s, and they are the one side left in the six with a recent premiership in the group.

We had Sydney to win by 1-12 and expected a one-score game deep into the last quarter. The side was right and the shape was wrong, which is the second time in this round the margin band cost us on a correct read. The SCG did not behave like the SCG.

For the complete statistical head-to-head, see our full Sydney vs Brisbane head-to-head record.

Adelaide win their first final in nine years

Adelaide 14.6 (90) def. Western Bulldogs 9.14 (68)

Adelaide Oval at night did what we thought it would. The Crows won by 22 for their first finals win in nine years, and the scoreboard tells the story of the night: Adelaide kicked 14.6, the Bulldogs 9.14. Same number of scoring shots within three, a two-goal gap in accuracy, and a 22-point result.

The Western Bulldogs go out as the outlier of the eight, the only finalist with a percentage below 100. They got there through the Wildcard Round on the back of Tim Membrey’s miss after the siren and then met a top-six side on the road eight days later. That was always the harder half of the assignment.

We had Adelaide by more than two goals and that is what it was. The accuracy split was the specific reason, which is not something you can tip in advance, but the structural read that a second knockout game in eight days on the road is a much harder ask than the first held up.

For the complete statistical head-to-head, see our full Adelaide vs Western Bulldogs head-to-head record.

The finals bracket after week two

Six teams left, four still with everything to play for and two with a week off.

Match	Fixture	When (AEST)	Venue
Semi-final 1	Fremantle v Geelong	Fri 11 Sep, 8:10pm (6:10pm AWST)	Optus Stadium
Semi-final 2	Brisbane v Adelaide	Sat 12 Sep, 7:35pm	The Gabba
Preliminary final	Hawthorn v winner of SF2	Week of 18 Sep	Hawthorn host
Preliminary final	Sydney v winner of SF1	Week of 18 Sep	Sydney host

The Grand Final is Saturday 26 September at the MCG. Out: Collingwood and Melbourne in the Wildcard Round, Carlton and the Western Bulldogs in week two.

What it means

Fremantle have gone from the best position in the competition to a home semi-final in one night. Minor premiers, best percentage, and now they must beat Geelong at Optus just to reach a preliminary final they would have hosted had they won on Thursday. Geelong arrive with the third-best percentage in the competition and a week of momentum.

Hawthorn and Sydney have the two most valuable assets in September. A home preliminary final and a bye. On the season’s numbers neither was the best team in the competition; both are now two wins from a premiership with the shorter road.

The Wildcard Round did not, in the end, change the destination. Both of its winners are out, and the six survivors are the top six from the home-and-away season. The new format produced two extra knockout games and a great deal of noise, and then the ladder reasserted itself in week two.

Finals week 2 talking points

Minor premiers are not favourites any more. Fremantle led the competition on points and percentage and were beaten at home by the fourth seed. In a five-week finals series with an extra knockout round in front of it, the double chance is worth less than it looks, and Optus Stadium is not the fortress the season-long record suggested.

Accuracy decided one final and flattered another. Adelaide beat the Bulldogs on conversion rather than scoring shots. Geelong kicked 23 behinds and still won by 33. Two very different lessons from the same statistic in the same weekend.

Our margin bands cost us twice on correct reads. We had Sydney and Geelong right and banded both too tightly on one and correctly on the other; the Fremantle call was simply wrong. Three of four results, two of four bands. Finals football is more volatile than the home-and-away season and the bands need to widen with it.

Looking for the best bookmakers to bet on the AFL finals?

Compare the best Australian bookmakers for AFL finals betting, including premiership futures and same game multis, on our best AFL betting sites guide. For the full market, see our AFL premiership odds page and the Grand Final outright market.

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