AFL Finals Week 2 Preview & Predictions

Week two of the finals series brings four games in three days. Fremantle host Hawthorn in a Thursday night qualifying final at Optus Stadium, Geelong meet Carlton and Sydney host Brisbane, and Adelaide face the Western Bulldogs at Adelaide Oval. Our predictions and head-to-head reads for all four.

Week two of the finals series is the first full weekend of September football, and the eight is now locked. Fremantle finished minor premiers on 76 points with the best percentage in the competition at 137.2, and the two Wildcard Round winners have taken the last two seeds: the Western Bulldogs at seven and Carlton at eight, allocated by original ladder position rather than by which night they won on. Catch up on the Wildcard Round results first, where eighth and tenth both went through and the two sides that led that bracket went out.

Four games across three days, and the format splits them cleanly. The two qualifying finals carry a double chance: win and you go straight to a home preliminary final, lose and you drop into a semi-final. The two elimination finals are sudden death. Here are our finals predictions and head-to-head reads for all four, and because prices move quickly in September we have left live markets to the bookmakers rather than quoting them here. Model the run to the Grand Final with the AFL Ladder Predictor, check the market on our AFL premiership odds page, and read how the AFL finals format works if the new bracket is unfamiliar.

Fremantle vs Hawthorn

Prediction: Fremantle to win by 1-12 points

Qualifying final, Thursday 3 September at 8:10pm AEST (6:10pm AWST) at Optus Stadium. First against fourth, and the reward is a home preliminary final. Fremantle were the most consistent side in the competition across the season at 19-4 with a percentage of 137.2, and Optus Stadium is the single biggest home-ground edge in the game for a Perth side hosting an interstate opponent on a Thursday night.

Hawthorn arrive at 15-6-2, and those two draws are the detail worth noting: they finished level on 64 points with Brisbane and were separated only by percentage, 121.7 to 120.1, which is the difference between third and fourth and between a trip to the SCG and a trip to Perth. This is the best side Fremantle have faced at home in months and a qualifying final is the wrong place to expect a blowout. Take Fremantle, but inside two goals rather than by a statement margin.

Head-to-head: Fremantle vs Hawthorn prediction & H2H record →

Geelong vs Carlton

Prediction: Geelong to win by 13+ points

Elimination final, Friday 4 September at 7:40pm AEST at the MCG. Sudden death, and the mismatch on the underlying numbers is the biggest of the weekend. Geelong finished fifth on 60 points but with the third-best percentage in the competition at 122.3, better than both sides above them on the ladder. Carlton finished tenth on 50 points at 101.5.

Carlton have earned the right to be here and they earned it the hard way, running down Melbourne after conceding the first four goals of the Wildcard game to win 10.14 (74) to 7.13 (55). Momentum is real and a knockout game at the MCG is not a formality. But Carlton are playing their second final in seven days against a side that has been rested since the last round and is a fair way clear of them on every season-long measure. Geelong to win, and to win well enough that the margin is not in doubt late.

Head-to-head: Geelong vs Carlton prediction & H2H record →

Sydney vs Brisbane

Prediction: Sydney to win by 1-12 points

Qualifying final, Saturday 5 September at 3:15pm AEST at the SCG. Our game of the weekend: second against third, both with a double chance, and a Saturday afternoon at the SCG is as good a stage as the home-and-away season produced. Sydney finished 18-5 at 136.1, a fraction behind Fremantle and clear of everyone else.

Brisbane at 16-7 and 121.7 are the most credible interstate threat in the bracket and the only side in the four that has won a premiership recently enough for it to matter to their players. The SCG rewards contested, low-scoring football and Sydney have the better record there, but Brisbane have the personnel to turn it into a shootout. Take Sydney at home and expect a one-score game deep into the last quarter rather than a comfortable afternoon.

Head-to-head: Sydney vs Brisbane prediction & H2H record →

Adelaide vs Western Bulldogs

Prediction: Adelaide to win by 13+ points

Elimination final, Saturday 5 September at 7:35pm AEST (7:05pm ACST) at Adelaide Oval. Adelaide finished sixth on 60 points at 117.3, level on points with Geelong and Melbourne and through on percentage. Adelaide Oval at night in a knockout final is a genuinely hostile place to arrive.

The Western Bulldogs are the outlier of the eight. They are the only finalist with a percentage below 100, at 95.4 from a 13-9-1 season, and they are here because they held on when Tim Membrey missed a set shot after the siren to win 14.12 (96) to 14.9 (93) against Collingwood. That is a side that has found a way rather than a side in form, and a second knockout game in eight days on the road against a top-six team is a much harder assignment than the first. Adelaide by more than two goals.

Head-to-head: Adelaide vs Western Bulldogs prediction & H2H record →

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AFL Finals Week 2 FAQs

What are the AFL finals fixtures in week two?

Four games. Fremantle host Hawthorn at Optus Stadium on Thursday 3 September at 8:10pm AEST, Geelong host Carlton at the MCG on Friday 4 September at 7:40pm AEST, Sydney host Brisbane at the SCG on Saturday 5 September at 3:15pm AEST, and Adelaide host the Western Bulldogs at Adelaide Oval on Saturday 5 September at 7:35pm AEST.

What is the difference between a qualifying final and an elimination final?

A qualifying final is contested by the top four seeds and carries a double chance: the winner advances to a home preliminary final and the loser drops into a semi-final the following week. An elimination final is sudden death, and the loser is out.

How did the Western Bulldogs and Carlton reach the finals?

Through the Wildcard Round, new for 2026, which replaced the pre-finals bye. The sides finishing seventh to tenth played off, with seventh meeting tenth and eighth meeting ninth. The Western Bulldogs beat Collingwood by three points and Carlton beat Melbourne by 19, and the two winners were then seeded seven and eight by their original ladder position.

Which side has the best percentage in the finals?

Fremantle, at 137.2, from Sydney at 136.1. Geelong are third at 122.3 despite finishing fifth, and the Western Bulldogs are the only finalist below 100, at 95.4.

What is the game of the weekend?

Sydney against Brisbane at the SCG on Saturday afternoon. Second plays third, both sides have a double chance, and the two are separated by eight premiership points and 14 percentage points across the season.

When is the 2026 AFL Grand Final?

Saturday 26 September at the MCG.

More AFL Content

• AFL Tips & Hub — all match tips and finals coverage
• AFL Wildcard Round Results — how the last two seeds were decided
• AFL Finals Format & Wildcard Round — how September works in 2026
• AFL Round-by-Round Predictions — every round of the season
• AFL Match Predictions — every team-vs-team head-to-head
• AFL Premiership Odds · AFL Ladder Predictor · Norm Smith Medal
• AFL Grand Final Tips · AFL Same Game Multi · Brownlow Medal
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