Bets of the Week: 25-27 September 2026

Welcome to BettingPro’s Bets of the Week: the team’s best plays for 25-27 September 2026. A Grand Final, two preliminary finals, the Socceroos against Brazil, a Group 1 at Rosehill and the Presidents Cup. It is the biggest weekend of the Australian sporting year.

How last week’s card settled: one from four on the knockout finals, and the Bet of the Weekend went down with the Warriors at Eden Park. The thread running through it was that we backed the side with the better head-to-head record three times and the record lost every time. Full accounting on last week’s card. We have taken that lesson into this week: where a fixture record and current form disagree below, we say which one we are trusting and why.

🏆 Bet of the Weekend: Dolphins to beat the Roosters at Suncorp Stadium. Still our pick after team news, though closer than it looked on Monday. Sam Walker is back for the Roosters from syndesmosis surgery, and he was hurt in the round-26 game we leaned on. Against that, the Dolphins have won their last eight at Suncorp, beat this opponent 48-10 there in round 15, and have had thirteen days off to the Roosters’ six.

A note on prices. Our odds feed does not currently cover Australian football codes or racing, so this card carries selections and reasoning but no quoted prices. We will not print a number we cannot verify. Check the live price at a bookmaker before backing any of these.

This Weekend’s Best Bets: Full Roundup

🏈 AFL Grand Final – Fremantle v Brisbane (Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pm AEST, MCG)

A club that has never won a premiership against one chasing three in a row. Fremantle were minor premiers at 19-4 with the best percentage in the competition at 137.2, built on a 14-match winning streak. Brisbane finished third at 16-7 and are into a fourth consecutive Grand Final.

The detail that matters most: neither side won a final in the opening week. Both lost a qualifying final and took the long road, and the only 2026 meeting between them went to Fremantle, 103-78 at the Gabba. Against that, Brisbane have now won a preliminary final in the last minute and have solved the specific problem of winning at the MCG in late September twice already.

The fixture does not produce close games: five meetings since 2023, an average margin of 31 points, and only one decided inside a goal. So the line is likely to be a more informative market than the head-to-head, whichever way you lean.

Our pick: Fremantle. This is the hardest call of the weekend and we want to be straight about that. Brisbane got the best news of their week on Thursday night: Lachie Neale is cleared to play after the AFL Appeal Board overturned his suspension for striking Jack Ginnivan, and the Lions are unchanged. That takes away the edge Fremantle had picked up since Monday, but it does not change our read. Brisbane’s September record is real and the market is right to respect it. But sixteen points of percentage and three wins separated these teams across 23 rounds, Fremantle won the only meeting this year by 25 on Brisbane’s own ground, and they have just come from 28 points down to win a preliminary final away from home. We think the market is weighting finals pedigree above a full season of evidence. Full breakdown in our AFL Grand Final preview.

🏉 NRL Preliminary Final 1 – Dolphins v Roosters (Fri 25 Sep, 7:50pm AEST, Suncorp Stadium)

The seven-game record since 2023 reads 4-3 to the Roosters and is the least useful number available, because every one of those Roosters wins came before this season. In 2026 the Dolphins have won both, 48-10 at Suncorp in round 15 and 26-12 at Allianz in round 26, the second of those away against a side still chasing a top-four spot.

The counter-argument is real: the Roosters produced the best performance of the finals series on Saturday night, beating Cronulla 46-10 with Daly Cherry-Evans scoring and setting up three. But they back up on six days to a Dolphins side that has not played since 12 September.

This is also the most volatile fixture in the competition, with an average margin of 20.9 points and only one of seven games decided inside a converted try. If you like a side here, back them to win well rather than narrowly.

Our pick: Dolphins. This is our Bet of the Weekend. Two wins from two this year, one by 38 at this ground, eight straight wins at Suncorp, and a fortnight of rest against a six-day turnaround.

Team news update: Sam Walker returns for the Roosters just 24 days after syndesmosis surgery, with Daly Cherry-Evans moving back to five-eighth. That restores their first-choice halves and is the main reason this is closer than the head-to-head suggests: the 26-12 Dolphins win in round 26 was the game Walker was injured in. The Dolphins recall Felise Kaufusi and have Tom Flegler back after he cleared concussion protocols.

🏉 NRL Preliminary Final 2 – Panthers v Knights (Sun 27 Sep, 4:00pm AEST, Accor Stadium)

Penrith lead this 6-1 since 2023 and won the only 2026 meeting 44-12. They are minor premiers, rested, at home, and into a seventh consecutive preliminary final.

Here is where we are trusting form over the record. That round-8 result is five months old, and Newcastle are demonstrably not that team: they have since won two finals away from home against higher-seeded opposition, 20-10 at Allianz and 12-10 at Eden Park in front of 48,511. No other club in this year’s eight has had to win twice on the road to get here. Kalyn Ponga passed a head injury assessment on Sunday and is available.

Our pick: Panthers, but not with confidence, and not at a short line. The record, the rest and the venue all point one way. What gives us pause is that Newcastle have spent September proving that their regular-season form line was the wrong guide. Nathan Cleary is named despite a foot injury picked up in week one, which is worth watching through to kick-off, while Newcastle name the same 19 that won at Eden Park. Note that this fixture also produces clear results rather than tight ones: one game in seven inside six points. Both games are analysed in our NRL preliminary finals preview.

⚽ Socceroos v Brazil (Fri 25 Sep, 8:00pm AEST, Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville)

Australia host Brazil in the first of two friendlies, the second at Suncorp Stadium on Tuesday 29 September. Game one is on Network 10 and Paramount+ and game two on Paramount+, which makes this the most watchable fixture on the card for a neutral. Full match details and our read on both games are in our Socceroos vs Brazil preview.

Our pick: under on the Socceroos handicap rather than the outright. Brazil will be much the shorter price and deservedly so, but a September friendly in Townsville against a home side that defends deep is not where a five-time world champion tends to run up a score. The margin markets are where the value sits in a game like this, not the head-to-head. Treat player props with caution: friendly line-ups rotate heavily and a starting XI is not a guarantee of minutes.

🏇 Golden Rose – Rosehill Gardens (Sat 26 Sep)

The Group 1 Golden Rose over 1400m is the defining early-season form race for three-year-olds and the pointer to the Caulfield Guineas and Coolmore.

The lead-ups have already thrown up a result worth holding onto. Warwoven won the Run To The Rose at $8.00, beating the unbeaten favourite St Gotthard at $2.60 over 1200m, and the Ming Dynasty went to Persian Wonder at $19.00. Both lead-ups beat their favourite.

Our pick: Guest House (barrier 5), with Campione D’Italia each-way. The final field is in. Guest House is the Golden Slipper winner, and he won it from eleventh at the 400m, which is the profile of a colt who wants further than 1200m. He won the San Domenico Stakes at Rosehill last start and is two from two at the track, and the Slipper was run on a Soft 5 surface like the one Rosehill is rated now. The one question he has not been asked is the trip: he has never raced beyond 1200m, and nor have Warwoven or St Gotthard. Campione D’Italia is the top-rated runner already proven beyond it, second as favourite in the Group 1 Champagne Stakes over 1600m. Full field and barriers on our Golden Rose page.

The Manikato Stakes field is also final, at Caulfield on Sunday 27 September at 4:45pm rather than its usual Moonee Valley home while The Valley is redeveloped. Our pick: Beiwacht (barrier 3), with Extragalactic each-way. Beiwacht won the Memsie at Caulfield by three lengths and has two Group 1 wins in his last three starts, but he is yet to win at 1200m and both of those wins came over 1400m. Extragalactic has won at the course and distance and was beaten 0.02 of a length in the Goodwood. Full field and reasoning on the Manikato Stakes page.

⛳ Presidents Cup – Medinah Country Club (Thu 24 to Sun 27 Sep)

The United States against the Internationals in matchplay, with Geoff Ogilvy captaining the International team and Min Woo Lee and Adam Scott in it. Brandt Snedeker leads the Americans. Full teams, format and the Australian angle are on our Presidents Cup page.

Our pick: session and match markets, not the outright. Matchplay changes the maths. There is no cut to survive and no field to beat, so the outright on a team event is a poor vehicle for a multi leg. Individual match-winner and session markets carry the value, and the International team being a genuine outsider makes their session prices the more interesting side of the board.

Bets of the Week Multi Builder

If you are building the weekend into one ticket, the two NRL preliminary finals are the shorter pair and the Grand Final is the leg carrying the risk. The Socceroos handicap is the outlier: it is the only leg on this card where we prefer a margin market to a result.

Our standing four-leg multi lives on the Weekend Mega Multi page, refreshed every week. Sport-by-sport builders are on our AFL same game multi, NRL multi, football multi, cricket multi and golf multi pages.

Where to Place These Bets

The right bookmaker depends on the market. For same-game and multi builders on the finals, Ladbrokes and Neds have the deepest markets. For the Golden Rose once the field is declared, Ladbrokes and Neds again lead on tote guarantees. bet365 and Dabble are strong for straight head-to-head and line betting on both codes, and bet365 has the widest coverage of the Presidents Cup session markets. Compare the price at two or three before you take it, because the gap on a Grand Final is usually worth more than any sign-up offer. Full reviews are in our best betting sites in Australia guide.

FAQs

Why are there no odds on this week’s card?
Our odds feed does not currently cover the Australian football codes or racing, and we do not publish a price we have not verified. Every selection above is the bet we want; click through to a bookmaker for the live price before you back it.

Are these picks tipped to win, or value plays?
Both. Each Best Bet is the selection our analysts rate as the most likely winner at a fair price. Where we think the market has a game wrong, we say so in the reasoning, as we have on the Grand Final.

What is on this weekend?
The AFL Grand Final at the MCG on Saturday, both NRL preliminary finals on Friday and Sunday, the Socceroos against Brazil in Townsville on Friday, the Group 1 Golden Rose at Rosehill on Saturday, the Manikato Stakes at Caulfield on Sunday, the Presidents Cup at Medinah from Thursday, the first two ODIs of Australia’s tour of South Africa, and NFL week 3.

When do you post racing best bets?
Once fields and barriers are declared, which is usually midweek for a Saturday meeting. We do not post a racing selection before the field is final. This week that meant Wednesday for the Golden Rose.

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• NRL preliminary finals preview · NRL finals bracket
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