AFL Round 20 Preview & Predictions

AFL Round 20 opens with Adelaide v Collingwood on Thursday and the Melbourne v Geelong game of the round on Friday. Our tips, margin-band predictions and head-to-head reads for all nine games as the run to finals heats up.

Round 20 opens on Thursday night in Adelaide, where two of the form sides in the competition — the fifth-placed Crows and a Collingwood outfit on a five-game winning streak — go head-to-head, before Friday night serves up the game of the round at the MCG (Melbourne v Geelong) and the Western Derby under lights at Optus. Catch up on Round 19 results first, where Adelaide knocked over Sydney and runaway leader Fremantle kept rolling.

Fremantle (16-2) sit clear on top of both the ladder and the premiership market from a fast-finishing Brisbane, with the current top four rounded out by Sydney and Hawthorn. Below the line it is congested: Adelaide, Melbourne, the Western Bulldogs and Collingwood hold the remaining eight spots, while Geelong (9th) are the danger side knocking on the door. Below are our Round 20 predictions and head-to-head reads for every game — model the run home with the AFL Ladder Predictor.

Adelaide vs Collingwood

Prediction: Adelaide to win by 1-12 points

The round opens under lights at Adelaide Oval with two of the competition’s in-form teams: fifth-placed Adelaide (12-6) riding a three-game streak against a Collingwood side (8th, 10-7-1) that has won five straight and keeps grinding out results. The Crows’ home-deck advantage and superior percentage give them the edge, though Fogarty’s suspension thins their forward line.

Back Adelaide at home, but the Pies’ habit of keeping games tight says keep it inside the two-and-a-half-goal band rather than expecting a blowout.

Head-to-head: Adelaide vs Collingwood prediction & H2H record →

Melbourne vs Geelong

Prediction: Melbourne to win by 1-12 points

The game of the round, and the closest line on the card. Sixth-placed Melbourne (12-6) host a Geelong side (9th, 10-8) that boasts a better percentage but arrives with a badly depleted midfield — Max Holmes is out for two months and Shaun Mannagh is under a cloud. Both have direct finals-ladder stakes.

This is a genuine coin-flip: we lean Melbourne at the MCG on the back of the healthier engine room, but the Cats on the plus line is a live safety play in what should be a tight one.

Head-to-head: Melbourne vs Geelong prediction & H2H record →

Fremantle vs West Coast

Prediction: Fremantle to win by 40+ points

The Western Derby, but a lopsided one on form. Ladder-leading Fremantle (16-2, 142%) host a West Coast side (16th, 4-14) that has lost six on the bounce and sits third-last on percentage. Derby emotion counts for something, but not a 12-win gap.

Back the Dockers to win big and cover a large line at their Optus Stadium fortress — one of the round’s clearest mismatches.

Head-to-head: Fremantle vs West Coast prediction & H2H record →

Carlton vs Gold Coast

Prediction: Carlton to win by 1-12 points

Two mid-table sides drifting out of the finals race meet at Marvel: Carlton (12th, 8-10) against a Gold Coast outfit (14th, 7-11) mired in an eight-game losing streak and out of contention. The Blues are inconsistent but have the class edge and the roof-closed comfort of Marvel.

Back Carlton to win, but both sides have been patchy enough that a tight margin is the sensible read rather than a rout.

Head-to-head: Carlton vs Gold Coast prediction & H2H record →

Hawthorn vs Essendon

Prediction: Hawthorn to win by 40+ points

Third-placed Hawthorn (12-5-1) are charging at the top four and meet an Essendon side (17th, 2-16) that has been gutted by injury — Xavier Duursma is the latest to go down for the season. The Hawks are the shortest home favourite of the round outside the derby.

Back Hawthorn to win comfortably and cover a big line; the only question is how much they choose to pile on with percentage in mind.

Head-to-head: Hawthorn vs Essendon prediction & H2H record →

GWS vs Sydney

Prediction: Sydney to win by 1-12 points

The Sydney Derby, with real stakes for the visitors: second-placed Sydney (13-5) have lost two straight and need to arrest the slide to protect their top-two spot, while GWS (11th) are missing captain Toby Greene. Derby games are always unpredictable.

The Swans’ class and top-two motivation should get it done, but Greene’s absence and derby chaos say take Sydney in the tight band rather than banking on a comfortable win.

Head-to-head: GWS vs Sydney prediction & H2H record →

Western Bulldogs vs Richmond

Prediction: Western Bulldogs to win by 40+ points

Finals-chasing Western Bulldogs (7th, 11-7) host a Richmond side (18th, 2-16) anchored to the bottom of the ladder and deep in a rebuild. With the Dogs’ percentage fragile (93.2), there is every incentive to make this a big one.

Back the Bulldogs to win big and build percentage against a Tigers outfit that has been beaten heavily for much of the year.

Head-to-head: Western Bulldogs vs Richmond prediction & H2H record →

Brisbane vs Port Adelaide

Prediction: Brisbane to win by 40+ points

The hottest side in the competition against one of the coldest. Brisbane (4th, 12-6) arrive on a six-game winning streak to face a Port Adelaide side (15th, 6-12) that is out of finals contention and has been ravaged by injury through the midfield.

At a happy Gabba, it is hard to see the Lions’ streak stopping — back Brisbane to win by plenty and cover a large line.

Head-to-head: Brisbane vs Port Adelaide prediction & H2H record →

North Melbourne vs St Kilda

Prediction: St Kilda to win by 13-39 points

The round closes at Marvel with two 8-10 sides playing for a wildcard rather than the eight: North Melbourne (13th) on a three-game skid against St Kilda (10th), who are boosted by the potential return of Max King to the forward line.

The Saints have the better percentage and, with King adding punch, we lean them to win by a couple of goals or more against a North side going the wrong way.

Head-to-head: North Melbourne vs St Kilda prediction & H2H record →

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AFL Round 20 FAQs

When is AFL Round 20 2026?

Round 20 runs from Thursday 23 July to Sunday 26 July 2026, opening with Adelaide v Collingwood at Adelaide Oval and closing with North Melbourne v St Kilda at Marvel Stadium.

What is the game of the round?

Melbourne v Geelong at the MCG on Friday night — the closest line on the card, with both sides fighting for their spot in the eight.

Who are the biggest favourites in Round 20?

Hawthorn (v Essendon), Fremantle (v West Coast in the derby), the Western Bulldogs (v Richmond) and Brisbane (v Port Adelaide) are the shortest-priced sides, all favoured to win by 40 or more.

More AFL Content

• AFL Tips & Hub — all match tips and weekly previews
• AFL Round 19 Results — last week’s wrap and analysis
• AFL Round-by-Round Predictions — every round’s previews and results
• AFL Match Predictions — every team-vs-team head-to-head
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