NRL Round 10 Preview & Predictions

Jun 4, 2026

Round 10 is loaded: Panthers on the road, Storm desperate at AAMI Park, and a Roosters matchup they usually dominate. Full card tips inside.

NRL Round 10 Preview & Predictions

Round 9 was the sort of weekend that reshapes a competition, not just a ladder. The Panthers are sitting top with an 8-1 record and a ridiculous points differential (291 for, 122 against), the Warriors are tracking like a proper top-two side, and a few “big-name certainties” have already hit the panic button. You can catch everything that went down last round here NRL Round 9 Results

Now we roll straight into a Round 10 that’s heavy on contrast. You’ve got the Storm in a five-game skid, still capable of putting 40 on anyone if they find their timing. You’ve got the Eels bleeding points (315 conceded in nine games) running into a Cowboys side that’s winning more often than not. And you’ve got Canberra hosting the benchmark: Penrith, who are basically turning every match into a clinic.

These are my NRL Round 10 predictions and NRL tips, match by match, with the form, the trends, and the player numbers that actually matter.

Next Gen Sports, Racing and Esports bettingT&Cs apply

18+ T&C's Apply. What are you really gambling with? Chances are you're about to lose. Set a Deposit Limit For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au

Over 18s only. Problem? Visit Gambling Help Online. Visit

Engage, Connect, and Win Together with Australia's Own Social Betting Platform.T&Cs apply

18+ T&C's Apply. What are you really gambling with? Chances are you're about to lose. Set a Deposit Limit For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au

Over 18s only. Problem? Visit Gambling Help Online. Claim

Australia's Newest BookieT&Cs apply

#AD 18+ T&Cs Apply Imagine what you could be buying instead. For free & confidential support call 180 0858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au

Over 18s only. Problem? Visit Gambling Help Online. Claim

Dolphins vs Bulldogs

Prediction: Dolphins to win by 1-12 points

This one feels like a litmus test for the Dolphins’ attack. The ladder snapshot we’ve been given doesn’t include either side, but the individual numbers tell a pretty clear story: when the Dolphins play at speed, they create chaos. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow is averaging 192 run metres a game (1539 from eight) and he’s not just a finisher either, with five try assists. Herbie Farnworth is the genuine line-bender, leading the league for tackle busts at 57 and adding 31 offloads to keep sets alive.

The Bulldogs’ edge is that they’ve already shown they can turn this into a grind. Head-to-head says it’s tight overall (three games: Bulldogs 2, Dolphins 1), and the Dogs have won the last two meetings by a combined 21-2 (30-10, 23-22). But the one time the Dolphins got them in Sydney, they belted them 44-8. That’s the swing factor: if the Dolphins win ruck speed early, the game opens up.

We’re backing the Dolphins to nick it late through broken-field metres and second-phase footy.

Head-to-head: Dolphins vs Bulldogs prediction & H2H record →

Roosters vs Titans

Prediction: Roosters to win by 13+ points

There are matchups where history is noise, and then there’s Roosters-Titans, where history is a flashing neon sign. Over the last 10 head-to-heads, the Roosters have won 9 and they’ve done it with points on the board, averaging 33.0 to the Titans’ 18.8. Even when the Titans pin them at home, the Roosters have repeatedly found ways to blow the game open late.

The current key piece is James Tedesco. He’s not just carrying the ball, he’s manufacturing momentum. Tedesco is averaging a ridiculous 224.9 run metres per game (1799 from eight), with 54 tackle breaks, 10 line breaks and seven try assists. That’s basically a fullback playing like an extra half. If he’s winning the middle on kick returns, the Titans’ edges end up defending off the back foot all night.

Phillip Sami (1600 run metres from eight, 571 post-contact) will keep the Titans in the arm wrestle for patches, but this has “Roosters by two tries” written all over it if they complete at a decent clip.

We’re backing the Roosters to win with class through the middle and Tedesco’s support play.

Head-to-head: Roosters vs Titans prediction & H2H record →

Cowboys vs Eels

Prediction: Cowboys to win by 13+ points

The Eels’ season is starting to get defined by one number: 315 points conceded in nine games. That’s not a “fix it with attitude” problem, that’s a structural leak. They’re 15th (3-6) and coming in off a 1-4 run in their last five, and it’s hard to find a matchup you’d like less right now than heading north to play a Cowboys side sitting sixth at 6-3, with a 4-1 patch of form.

History says the Cowboys have been comfortable in Townsville. In the last 11 between these two, the Cowboys lead 7-4 overall, and they’ve won the last three meetings at their home ground (24-16, 17-10, 44-6). That 44-6 is the warning label: when the Eels lose ruck control here, the scoreboard moves fast.

Scott Drinkwater is the driver. He’s already on 10 try assists and 13 line-break assists, plus he’s kicking for territory as well (945 kick metres, two 40/20s). Against an Eels side that’s defending repeat sets poorly, Drinkwater’s short kicking game and sweep shapes are a nightmare. Jack Williams (Eels) is making 41.3 tackles per game (372 total), which tells you how much pressure Parramatta are soaking up.

We’re backing the Cowboys to win by turning Parramatta’s defensive workload into points.

Head-to-head: Cowboys vs Eels prediction & H2H record →

Dragons vs Knights

Prediction: Dragons to win by 1-12 points

This is the weekend’s sneaky good game. The Knights are 10th at 5-4, but their for-and-against (232 scored, 262 conceded) screams volatility. The Dragons’ ladder spot isn’t included in the snapshot, but their head-to-head dominance in this matchup is impossible to ignore: across the last 10 meetings they lead 6-4, and at WIN Stadium specifically they’ve won the last two there (21-16, 30-12) plus a recent one at Jubilee (20-6).

The Knights’ trump card is finishing power. Dominic Young has nine tries from nine games, plus 39 tackle breaks and six half breaks. If Newcastle get their yardage right and win early kicks, he’ll get opportunities on the back of set starts and shift plays. But the Dragons can turn this into a game of effort and repeat tackles. Damien Cook is pumping out 355 tackles from eight games, and when your hooker is defending like that, you can survive long periods without the ball.

The other Knights indicator is Phoenix Crossland’s workload: 407 tackles at 45.2 a game. That’s elite, but it also hints Newcastle are doing a lot of defending in the middle third. Against a Dragons side that loves building pressure through territory, that can become a slow bleed.

We’re backing the Dragons to win a tight one by controlling field position at WIN Stadium.

Next Gen Sports, Racing and Esports bettingT&Cs apply

18+ T&C's Apply. What are you really gambling with? Chances are you're about to lose. Set a Deposit Limit For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au

Over 18s only. Problem? Visit Gambling Help Online. Visit

Engage, Connect, and Win Together with Australia's Own Social Betting Platform.T&Cs apply

18+ T&C's Apply. What are you really gambling with? Chances are you're about to lose. Set a Deposit Limit For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au

Over 18s only. Problem? Visit Gambling Help Online. Claim

Australia's Newest BookieT&Cs apply

#AD 18+ T&Cs Apply Imagine what you could be buying instead. For free & confidential support call 180 0858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au

Over 18s only. Problem? Visit Gambling Help Online. Claim

Head-to-head: Dragons vs Knights prediction & H2H record →

Rabbitohs vs Sharks

Prediction: Rabbitohs to win by 1-12 points

If you only want one stat for this game, make it this: in the last 12 head-to-heads, the Rabbitohs lead 7-5. That’s close overall, but it hides a real recent edge for Souths. They’ve won the last five straight against Cronulla, including a win at PointsBet (27-18) and another at Accor (22-18). It’s not an accident. Their best footy targets Cronulla’s edges and turns the game into a retreat.

Latrell Mitchell is playing like a cheat code. Through eight games he has 11 tries and 116 points overall, with 10 line breaks, 45 tackle breaks and six try assists. He’s not just scoring, he’s collapsing defensive systems. And when he’s kicking as well (1264 kick metres), Souths can flip the field after good-ball raids and keep the Sharks pinned.

Cronulla’s response is Braydon Trindall’s boot. He has 3349 kick metres and 73 attacking kicks from eight games, plus 10 try assists. If the Sharks win the kick chase and keep Latrell from returning freely, they can force Souths to start sets on their 10 and 20. But the matchup has been trending Souths for long enough to call it a pattern.

We’re backing the Rabbitohs to win by letting Latrell dictate the big moments.

Head-to-head: Rabbitohs vs Sharks prediction & H2H record →

Sea Eagles vs Broncos

Prediction: Broncos to win by 1-12 points

This one is all about who plays the game on their terms. The Broncos are ninth (5-4) with a basically neutral points profile (210 for, 209 against), and that feels right: they’ve been good without being ruthless. The Sea Eagles’ ladder position isn’t in the snapshot, but their recent head-to-head split with Brisbane is fascinating. Over the last nine, it’s Broncos 5, Sea Eagles 4, and the venue swings have been wild. Manly have put 50 on Brisbane at Suncorp before, and Brisbane have also rolled them repeatedly in Brisbane. Unpredictable matchup, predictable intensity.

From a betting angle, I’m leaning to Brisbane because of defensive trust. Jordan Riki is giving them consistent edge steel with 347 tackles (38.6 a game) and he’s not passive either, with 434 post-contact metres. That matters against Manly’s left-side shifts, where one poor read turns into an overlap.

For Manly, Jamal Fogarty’s control has been strong: nine try assists in seven games, plus 2976 kick metres and 45 attacking kicks. He can keep this close with repeat sets and forcing Brisbane to work out of corners. But if the Broncos win the aerial contest and start on the front foot, Manly’s defensive line tends to get stretched before it gets set.

We’re backing the Broncos to win a physical one by holding their nerve in the red zone.

Head-to-head: Sea Eagles vs Broncos prediction & H2H record →

Storm vs Wests Tigers

Prediction: Storm to win by 13+ points

The ladder says the unthinkable: the Storm are 16th at 2-7 and coming off a 0-5 run. But I’m not tipping against Melbourne at AAMI Park here, because the matchup history is too lopsided to ignore and the Storm’s strike is still real. Over the last 10 meetings, Melbourne lead 8-2, and at AAMI Park you’ve got everything from tight wins to an absolute demolition (64-0).

The other reason is Sualauvi Faalogo. He’s already at 11 tries from nine games, with 1822 run metres and 54 tackle breaks. That’s a one-man momentum swing, and it’s exactly the kind of weapon that can turn a team’s mood in five minutes. If Melbourne’s spine give him space on kick returns and early-set plays, the Tigers’ edges will be defending broken shapes all afternoon.

Wests can compete through effort. Alex Twal is making 46.1 tackles a game (369 total) and offloading too (18), so they’ll hang in the arm wrestle early. But the Tigers’ problem against Melbourne historically is that hanging in isn’t enough. You need points when you get chances, because the Storm always find a patch where they score twice in eight minutes.

We’re backing the Storm to snap the skid with an AAMI Park response and Faalogo finishing the job.

Next Gen Sports, Racing and Esports bettingT&Cs apply

18+ T&C's Apply. What are you really gambling with? Chances are you're about to lose. Set a Deposit Limit For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au

Over 18s only. Problem? Visit Gambling Help Online. Visit

Engage, Connect, and Win Together with Australia's Own Social Betting Platform.T&Cs apply

18+ T&C's Apply. What are you really gambling with? Chances are you're about to lose. Set a Deposit Limit For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au

Over 18s only. Problem? Visit Gambling Help Online. Claim

Australia's Newest BookieT&Cs apply

#AD 18+ T&Cs Apply Imagine what you could be buying instead. For free & confidential support call 180 0858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au

Over 18s only. Problem? Visit Gambling Help Online. Claim

Head-to-head: Storm vs Wests Tigers prediction & H2H record →

Raiders vs Panthers

Prediction: Panthers to win by 13+ points

This is the round’s statement game, and Penrith have been writing statements all year. The Panthers are first at 8-1 with 291 points scored and only 122 conceded. That’s not just winning, it’s suffocating. Canberra, on the other hand, are 13th at 4-5 with a negative points profile (183 for, 249 against). They’re scrapping, but they’re also leaking.

And the head-to-head at GIO Stadium is brutal reading for Raiders fans. Across the last 11 meetings, the Panthers lead 7-4, and the recent visits to Canberra are emphatic: 53-12 and 26-6 are in the set. That’s dominance, and it’s built on Penrith controlling the middle and forcing Canberra to play from their own end.

Nathan Cleary is the chess master. He’s on 11 try assists already, with 4428 kick metres and 84 attacking kicks, so he can win this game without even playing “highlight reel” footy. If he turns it into a territorial strangulation, the Raiders will crack. Canberra’s best spark is Savelio Tamale: 1540 run metres from eight and 43 tackle breaks, plus six line breaks. But relying on yardage and tackle busts to beat Penrith is a tough way to live.

We’re backing the Panthers to win by grinding Canberra into errors and letting Cleary steer the margins.

Head-to-head: Raiders vs Panthers prediction & H2H record →

Looking for the best bookmakers to bet on the NRL?

If you’re having a play on my NRL Round 10 predictions, make sure you’re shopping for the best price and the sharpest promos. See our best NRL betting sites in Australia guide for full bookmaker comparisons, or browse the newest betting sites in Australia for fresh signup offers. For multi-leg picks across the round, see our same game multi guide.

OnlyBets

100% Australian
Recommended

New AU Bookmaker 2026

Live Betting
Mobile App
PayID

Excellent Review

9.8 Our Score

Join now

#AD 18+ T&Cs Apply Imagine what you could be buying instead. For free & confidential support call 180 0858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au

Dabble

Copy Bets
Social Betting

Use Code: BETTINGPRO

Live Racing
Mobile App
Social App

Excellent Review

9.4 Our Score

Join now

18+ T&C's Apply. What are you really gambling with? Chances are you're about to lose. Set a Deposit Limit For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au

Picklebet

Best For Esports
Top 4 Betting

Use Code: PICKLEVIP

Live Streaming
Mobile App

Excellent Review

9 Our Score

Join now

18+ T&C's Apply. What are you really gambling with? Chances are you're about to lose. Set a Deposit Limit For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au

Ladbrokes

Infohub
Mates Mode

Use Code: LADSVIP

Cash Out
Infohub
Mobile App

Excellent Review

9.4 Our Score

Join now

18+ T&C's Apply. What are you really gambling with? Chances are you're about to lose. Set a Deposit Limit For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au

BetNow

100% Australian
Competitive Odds

Use Code: MADMAX

Live Betting
Mobile App
PayID

Excellent Review

9.5 Our Score

Join now

#AD 18+ T&Cs Apply Imagine what you could be buying instead. For free & confidential support call 180 0858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au

Neds

Best For UFC
Neds Toolbox

Use Code: NEDSVIP

Cash Out
Live Betting
Live Streaming

Excellent Review

9 Our Score

Join now

18+ T&C's Apply. What are you really gambling with? Chances are you're about to lose. Set a Deposit Limit For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au

bet365

AFL 10+ Disposals
Best For Live Streams

Use Code: 365AUCODE

Live Betting
Live Streaming
Mobile App

Excellent Review

10 Our Score

Join now

Exclusive 365AUCODE referral code: bet365 does not offer bonus codes in Australia and this referral code does not grant access to offers.18+ T&C's Apply. What are you really gambling with? Chances are you're about to lose. Set a Deposit Limit For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au

FAQ

What are the best NRL tips for Round 10?
My strongest leans are the Roosters 13+ (historical dominance over the Titans) and the Panthers 13+ (elite defence and strong recent record at GIO Stadium).

Who are the key try scorers to watch this round?
Latrell Mitchell has 11 tries in eight games, Dominic Young has nine in nine, and Storm flyer Sualauvi Faalogo has 11 in nine. All three are shaping as weekly anytime try threats.

Which match is most likely to be close?
Dragons vs Knights profiles as a genuine one-score type game, especially with the Knights’ points against (262) suggesting swingy results and the Dragons’ recent edge at WIN Stadium.

Are the Storm really a value bounce-back?
They’re 16th and out of form, so it’s not blind faith, but the matchup history against the Tigers (8 wins from last 10) plus Faalogo’s strike gives them a clear path to a response at AAMI Park.