NRL Round 24 Preview & Predictions

Round 24 opens with first against second: Penrith and the Sydney Roosters are level on 36 points. Four away teams are favoured, Canterbury host Souths for a place in the eight, and Melbourne have the bye.

Round 24 opens on Thursday night with the biggest game of the season so far: Penrith against the Sydney Roosters, first against second, level on 36 points. Catch up on Round 23 results first, where the Warriors led Penrith 22-0 and won in Auckland, the last-placed Dragons ambushed fourth-placed Cronulla, and the Cowboys climbed back into the eight ahead of Canterbury.

The oddity of this round is where the favourites are: the market has four away teams favoured, with the Dolphins at Manly, the Cowboys at Parramatta, the Warriors at Suncorp and even the Dragons marginally ahead at Wests Tigers. Penrith and the Roosters are tied on 36 with the Warriors two back on 34, while seventh to tenth is separated by four points: South Sydney and North Queensland on 28, Canterbury on 26 and Manly on 24. Here are our Round 24 predictions and head-to-head reads for every game; Melbourne have the bye.

Penrith Panthers vs Sydney Roosters

Prediction: Penrith Panthers to win by 1-12 points

First against second on a Thursday night, level on 36 points, with the minor premiership on the line. Penrith hold top spot on differential alone, +292 to +157, and were beaten 28-12 by the Warriors in Auckland last week with Isaah Yeo going off injured. The Roosters come off a two-point escape against Canterbury.

The Panthers are $1.52 and the Roosters $2.40. Penrith have won nine of the last ten meetings between these clubs, and the market still respects that even after Auckland. Take Penrith, but narrowly: these two do not produce blowouts.

Head-to-head: Roosters vs Panthers prediction & H2H record →

Manly Sea Eagles vs Dolphins

Prediction: Dolphins to win by 1-12 points

The first of the round’s away favourites. The Dolphins (5th, 32 points) beat Brisbane 40-32 in a Suncorp shootout last week and are level with Cronulla in the top five. Manly (10th, 24 points) are the best-placed side outside the eight on differential at +68, better than both teams currently in seventh and eighth, but they were beaten 42-20 by Melbourne after leading 14-0.

The Dolphins are $1.30 on the road, the Sea Eagles $3.35. Manly need this far more than the Dolphins do, and 4 Pines Park is tight, so take the Dolphins without much margin.

Head-to-head: Dolphins vs Sea Eagles prediction & H2H record →

Canterbury Bulldogs vs South Sydney Rabbitohs

Prediction: Canterbury Bulldogs to win by 1-12 points

The one that decides the eight. Canterbury (9th, 26 points) dropped out of the top eight by two points last week after losing 20-18 to the Roosters, and a home Friday-nighter against the side directly above them is the way back in. South Sydney (7th, 28 points) led Parramatta 28-0 and still had to survive a 24-point second-half comeback.

The Bulldogs are $1.58, the Rabbitohs $2.40. Canterbury’s differential of -46 is the weakness in their case, so they need the win and the margin. Take the Bulldogs at home.

Head-to-head: Rabbitohs vs Bulldogs prediction & H2H record →

Cronulla Sharks vs Canberra Raiders

Prediction: Cronulla Sharks to win by 13+ points

Cronulla (4th, 32 points) were ambushed 24-16 by the last-placed Dragons last week, a result that cost them a shot at the top two, and they will want to make someone pay for it. Canberra (12th, 22 points) are last season’s minor premiers and now need a great deal of help to play finals at all.

The Sharks are $1.25 and the Raiders $3.70. A top-four side at home the week after an embarrassment is the classic bounce-back spot: take Cronulla to win comfortably.

Head-to-head: Raiders vs Sharks prediction & H2H record →

Parramatta Eels vs North Queensland Cowboys

Prediction: North Queensland Cowboys to win by 1-12 points

North Queensland (8th, 28 points) are back inside the eight after a 30-8 win over Gold Coast, though their differential of -76 is by far the weakest of any side in the top eight and leaves no room for a bad afternoon. Parramatta (13th, 20 points) are out of it, but they led Souths’ 28-0 start back to 28-24 last week, which says something about their willingness.

The Cowboys are $1.52 away, the Eels $2.50. North Queensland need the points more than anyone in this game, but they have been wildly inconsistent, so keep the margin short.

Head-to-head: Eels vs Cowboys prediction & H2H record →

Brisbane Broncos vs New Zealand Warriors

Prediction: New Zealand Warriors to win by 13+ points

The Warriors (3rd, 34 points) are the form side of the competition after beating Penrith 28-12, with the second-best differential in the league at +242 and the top two still in reach. Brisbane (16th, 18 points) have lost 11 of their last 12 and have one win since Anzac Round.

The Warriors are $1.41 at Suncorp, the Broncos $2.75. An away favourite at Suncorp is unusual and tells you exactly how far apart these two are right now. Take New Zealand with margin.

Head-to-head: Warriors vs Broncos prediction & H2H record →

Newcastle Knights vs Gold Coast Titans

Prediction: Newcastle Knights to win by 13+ points

Newcastle (6th, 30 points) have quietly become a finals side, coming from behind to win 30-24 in Canberra, and they are chasing a top-four finish with a game in hand on much of the field already played. Gold Coast (15th, 18 points) were beaten 30-8 by the Cowboys.

The Knights are $1.20 and the Titans $4.20. Newcastle at home against a bottom-four side, with a top-four spot live, is the most straightforward bet of the round.

Head-to-head: Titans vs Knights prediction & H2H record →

Wests Tigers vs St George Illawarra Dragons

Prediction: St George Illawarra Dragons to win in a coinflip

The only genuine pick’em of the round, and it is between the bottom two. Wests Tigers (14th, 20 points) had the bye last week. St George Illawarra (17th, 12 points) are last but arrive off the upset of the season, beating fourth-placed Cronulla 24-16 with Setu Tu’s late try, having won 11 of the previous 12 derbies against them.

Both sides are $1.87, and the model has the Dragons marginally ahead at 54 per cent despite being the away team and bottom of the ladder. That is the Cronulla result being priced in. In a market this tight we lean Dragons, but this is a game to watch rather than a game to bet.

Head-to-head: Wests Tigers vs Dragons prediction & H2H record →

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NRL Round 24 FAQs

When is NRL Round 24 2026?

Round 24 runs from Thursday 13 August to Sunday 16 August 2026, opening with Penrith v the Sydney Roosters at CommBank Stadium and closing with Wests Tigers v St George Illawarra at the same venue on Sunday afternoon.

What is the game of the round?

Penrith v the Sydney Roosters on Thursday night. First against second, level on 36 points, with Penrith holding top spot on points differential alone and the minor premiership at stake.

Which team has the bye in Round 24?

Melbourne Storm. Every other club plays, which is why there are eight games.

Who are the biggest favourites in Round 24?

Newcastle at $1.20 against Gold Coast is the shortest price, then Cronulla at $1.25 against Canberra and the Dolphins at $1.30 away at Manly.

Why are so many away teams favoured in Round 24?

Four of them are: the Dolphins at Manly, the Cowboys at Parramatta, the Warriors at Suncorp against Brisbane, and marginally the Dragons at Wests Tigers. It is a quirk of the run home, where several strong sides draw struggling hosts in the same week.

Who is fighting for the top eight?

South Sydney and North Queensland are level on 28 points in seventh and eighth, with Canterbury ninth on 26 and Manly tenth on 24. North Queensland are the vulnerable ones: their differential of -76 is the only heavily negative figure inside the eight.

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