AFL Round 22 Preview & Predictions

Our AFL Round 22 preview and predictions for all nine games from 6 to 9 August 2026, with Brisbane v Hawthorn the game of the round and Fremantle taking their 18-2 record to the MCG.

Round 22 opens on Thursday night at Marvel Stadium, where the Western Bulldogs defend the last spot inside the eight against North Melbourne, before our game of the round on Friday: Brisbane host Hawthorn at the Gabba with a line inside a goal. Catch up on Round 21 results first, where Carlton buried Brisbane by 76 points in the boilover of the season, Geelong won the MCG blockbuster to climb into the eight and Adelaide answered with a 72-point statement.

Fremantle (18-2) remain four wins clear on top with a competition-best 147.3 percentage, and take their record to the MCG on Saturday as favourites against Melbourne. The real congestion is behind them: Adelaide, Brisbane and Melbourne are locked on 13-7, Geelong and the Bulldogs on 12-8, and Collingwood sit ninth just two points out. Five of this week’s nine games have a line of 15.5 points or more, so percentage could decide who plays finals. Here are our Round 22 predictions and head-to-head reads for every game; model the run home with the AFL Ladder Predictor.

Western Bulldogs vs North Melbourne

Prediction: Western Bulldogs to win by 13+ points

A Thursday-night opener at Marvel with very different stakes. The Western Bulldogs (8th, 12-8) hold the last spot inside the eight on percentage alone at 94.8, the weakest of any side in the top nine, so they cannot afford a slip against a North Melbourne (13th, 8-12) team whose September is long gone.

The market has the Dogs at $1.45 and 15.5-point favourites, with North out to $2.75. Given the Bulldogs need percentage as much as points, back them to win by more than two goals.

Head-to-head: Western Bulldogs vs North Melbourne prediction & H2H record →

Brisbane vs Hawthorn

Prediction: Brisbane to win by 1-12 points

Our game of the round, and the only match this week with a line inside a goal. Brisbane (5th, 13-7) were humiliated by Carlton last week, beaten by 76 points in the boilover of the season, and now host a Hawthorn side (3rd, 14-5-1) that has been the most consistent team in the competition outside Fremantle.

The Lions are $1.75 and 4.5-point favourites at the Gabba, the Hawks $2.10. Brisbane at home after a humbling is a dangerous animal, but this is close to a coinflip: take the Lions narrowly and expect it to go down to the last quarter.

Head-to-head: Brisbane vs Hawthorn prediction & H2H record →

Melbourne vs Fremantle

Prediction: Fremantle to win by 13+ points

The best team in the competition on the road against a side fighting for a double chance. Fremantle (1st, 18-2) are four wins clear with a competition-best 147.3 percentage and remain favourites for the premiership. Melbourne (6th, 13-7) sit sixth on percentage behind Adelaide and Brisbane on identical records.

Fremantle are $1.47 and 13.5-point favourites at the MCG, Melbourne $2.70. That is a short price for an away team at the MCG, and we still think it is the right side of the market. Dockers by more than two goals.

Head-to-head: Melbourne vs Fremantle prediction & H2H record →

Sydney vs Port Adelaide

Prediction: Sydney to win comfortably

Sydney (2nd, 15-5) have not lost to a bottom-half side all season and return to the SCG, where their record is the best in the league. Port Adelaide (15th, 6-14) have lost 14 of 20 and were beaten by GWS at home last week.

The Swans are $1.13 and 35.5-point favourites, Port $6.00. There is no value in the head-to-head at that price; if you want this game, the line and the total are the only sensible ways in.

Head-to-head: Sydney vs Port Adelaide prediction & H2H record →

Geelong vs Essendon

Prediction: Geelong to win comfortably

The most one-sided fixture of the round. Geelong (7th, 12-8) beat Collingwood in the MCG blockbuster to climb into the eight, and now get Essendon (18th, 2-18) at GMHBA, where the Cats almost never lose. The Bombers have won twice all year and were beaten by 72 points by Adelaide last week.

Geelong are $1.02 and 63.5-point favourites, the shortest price of the weekend, with Essendon at $17.00. This is multi-anchor material rather than a standalone bet.

Head-to-head: Geelong vs Essendon prediction & H2H record →

Adelaide vs Richmond

Prediction: Adelaide to win comfortably

Adelaide (4th, 13-7) put 145 on Essendon last week and hold fourth on percentage. Richmond (17th, 3-17) did beat West Coast to climb off the bottom, but their 62.8 percentage is the worst in the competition.

The Crows are $1.04 and 54.5-point favourites at Adelaide Oval, Richmond $11.00. Adelaide are chasing a top-two finish and percentage matters to them, so expect no let-up.

Head-to-head: Adelaide vs Richmond prediction & H2H record →

GWS vs Gold Coast

Prediction: GWS to win by 13+ points

A Sunday-afternoon meeting of two seasons that are effectively over. GWS (12th, 9-11) upset Port Adelaide away last week, while Gold Coast (14th, 7-13) pushed Melbourne to five points and will feel they let one go.

The Giants are $1.40 and 17.5-point favourites at Manuka Oval, the Suns $3.00. Manuka is a genuine second home for GWS and the Suns have not won away from Queensland since April: Giants by more than two goals.

Head-to-head: GWS vs Gold Coast prediction & H2H record →

West Coast vs Collingwood

Prediction: Collingwood to win by 13+ points

Collingwood (9th, 11-8-1) sit ninth, two points outside the eight, and cannot afford another slip after losing to Geelong. West Coast (16th, 4-16) were beaten by Richmond and have the second-worst percentage in the league at 70.8.

The Magpies are $1.31 and 20.5-point favourites at Optus Stadium, the Eagles $3.50. The trip west is the only concern; on form there is a two-tier gap here. Pies by more than two goals, and model what it means for September with the AFL Ladder Predictor.

Head-to-head: West Coast vs Collingwood prediction & H2H record →

St Kilda vs Carlton

Prediction: Carlton to win by 1-12 points

The Sunday-night closer, and the second-closest line of the round. Carlton (10th, 10-10) arrive on the back of a 76-point demolition of Brisbane, the result of the season, while St Kilda (11th, 9-11) lost to Sydney at the same venue last week.

Carlton are $1.68 and 6.5-point favourites despite being the away side, with the Saints at $2.20. St Kilda have the better percentage of the two (104.3 to 97.0), so the Blues are arguably a touch short, but Patrick Cripps in this mood is the difference. Carlton inside two goals.

Head-to-head: St Kilda vs Carlton prediction & H2H record →

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AFL Round 22 FAQs

When is AFL Round 22 2026?

Round 22 runs from Thursday 6 August to Sunday 9 August 2026, opening with the Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium and closing with St Kilda v Carlton at the same venue on Sunday night.

What is the game of the round?

Brisbane v Hawthorn at the Gabba on Friday night. Fifth against third, a line of just 4.5 points, and the Lions coming off a 76-point loss to Carlton.

Who are the biggest favourites in Round 22?

Geelong ($1.02 against Essendon) and Adelaide ($1.04 against Richmond) are the shortest prices of the round, with Sydney ($1.13 against Port Adelaide) next. All three are multi anchors rather than standalone bets.

Which teams are fighting for the top eight?

Geelong and the Western Bulldogs share seventh and eighth on 12-8, with Collingwood ninth on 11-8 and a draw. The Bulldogs hold their spot on a percentage of just 94.8, the weakest in the top nine, so a heavy loss could cost them the double chance race entirely.

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