AFL Round 23 Preview & Predictions

Round 23 is the second-last round of the home-and-away season. Fremantle can seal the minor premiership at Optus, Hawthorn host Collingwood in the game of the round, and Western Bulldogs v Carlton is a straight shootout for a Wildcard Round place.

Round 23 is the second-last round of the home-and-away season, and it opens on Friday night at Optus Stadium where ladder-leading Fremantle host Adelaide. Catch up on Round 22 results first, where Melbourne beat Fremantle by four points in an MCG classic, Gold Coast ended a 10-game losing run by two in Canberra, and Collingwood climbed back into the eight.

Two things are on the line. Fremantle (18-3) need one more win to put the minor premiership out of reach, and the top six is now worth more than it has ever been, because only those six skip the new Wildcard Round and get a weekend off. Hawthorn are third on 58 points with Brisbane, Adelaide and Melbourne all locked on 56 and Geelong four back on 52. Below them, seventh to tenth is the wildcard bracket, and Western Bulldogs against Carlton on Sunday is a straight shootout for a place in it. Here are our Round 23 predictions and head-to-head reads for every game; model the run home with the AFL Ladder Predictor.

Fremantle vs Adelaide

Prediction: Fremantle to win by 13+ points

The round opens on Friday night in Perth with first against fifth, and the minor premiership effectively on the line. Fremantle (1st, 18-3) lost to Melbourne last week and still sit two games clear on top with a competition-best percentage of 143.4. Adelaide (5th, 14-7) are level on 56 points with Brisbane and Melbourne and sit fifth on percentage by two tenths, so a top-six place is genuinely live for them.

The market has the Dockers at $1.38 and the Crows out to $3.10. Fremantle at Optus after a loss is the wrong side to take on, and they need percentage as much as points, so back them to win by more than two goals.

Head-to-head: Fremantle vs Adelaide prediction & H2H record →

Richmond vs St Kilda

Prediction: St Kilda to win by 13+ points

A Saturday lunchtime game at the MCG between two sides whose seasons finished weeks ago. Richmond (17th, 3-18) have one win since May, and St Kilda (11th, 9-12) are the better team by a distance even away from home.

The Saints are $1.28 favourites on the road, the Tigers $3.75. There is no finals context here for either club, which usually means the more talented list wins comfortably rather than narrowly.

Head-to-head: Richmond vs St Kilda prediction & H2H record →

North Melbourne vs Geelong

Prediction: Geelong to win by 13+ points

Geelong (7th, 13-8) are the side with the most to gain this week. They are four points off sixth with the best percentage of anyone in the chasing pack at 120.6, so two wins could still earn them the week off. North Melbourne (13th, 9-12) beat the Western Bulldogs last round for their best win under Alastair Clarkson, so this is not a free hit.

The Cats are $1.30, the Kangaroos $3.60. Geelong need margin as much as the four points, and a Marvel Stadium roof suits the side that wants to control the game.

Head-to-head: Kangaroos vs Geelong prediction & H2H record →

Brisbane vs Gold Coast

Prediction: Brisbane to win by 13+ points

A Queensland derby at the Gabba with wildly different stakes. Brisbane (4th, 14-7) hold fourth on percentage and are protecting both a top-six berth and the double chance that comes with the top four. Gold Coast (14th, 8-13) finally won one last week, ending a 10-game losing run by two points in Canberra.

The Lions are $1.15 and the Suns $5.50. Brisbane put 125 on Hawthorn a fortnight ago and know exactly what is at stake: take them to win well rather than backing the derby upset.

Head-to-head: Gold Coast vs Brisbane prediction & H2H record →

Hawthorn vs Collingwood

Prediction: Hawthorn to win by 1-12 points

Our game of the round. Third against eighth at the MCG on Saturday night, with Hawthorn (3rd, 14-6-1) defending the top-six place that now comes with a week off, and Collingwood (8th, 12-8-1) defending the last automatic spot inside the eight after climbing back into it in Perth last round.

The Hawks are $1.36, the Magpies $3.20. Hawthorn were beaten by 67 by Brisbane a week ago and their percentage-building run has stalled at the wrong time of year. Take the Hawks, but this is the game of the round for a reason: expect it inside two goals.

Head-to-head: Hawthorn vs Collingwood prediction & H2H record →

Port Adelaide vs Melbourne

Prediction: Melbourne to win by 13+ points

Melbourne (6th, 14-7) beat the ladder leaders last week and hold the last automatic top-six place on 56 points, but their percentage of 107.6 is the weakest of the four sides in that fight, so margin matters. Port Adelaide (15th, 6-15) have lost five straight.

The Demons are $1.19 and the Power $4.80. Adelaide Oval is a genuinely hard place to win and Port have nothing to lose, but Melbourne need percentage badly enough to chase it: take the Demons by more than two goals.

Head-to-head: Melbourne vs Port Adelaide prediction & H2H record →

GWS vs West Coast

Prediction: GWS to win by 13+ points

A Sunday dead rubber at ENGIE Stadium. GWS (12th, 9-12) are mathematically alive for a wildcard place but need Carlton to lose twice and to make up eight points, which is not happening. West Coast (16th, 4-17) have the worst percentage in the competition at 71.5.

The Giants are $1.15, the Eagles $5.50. GWS lost by two to Gold Coast in the wet last week in Canberra, which flattered nobody, and a home game against the second-worst side in it is the correction.

Head-to-head: West Coast vs GWS prediction & H2H record →

Western Bulldogs vs Carlton

Prediction: Carlton to win by 1-12 points

The most important game of the round for the wildcard bracket. Ninth against tenth at Marvel: the Western Bulldogs (9th, 12-9, 48 points) against Carlton (10th, 11-10, 44 points). A Carlton win pulls them level on 48 and puts real pressure on a Bulldogs percentage of 93.9, the worst of any side in the top ten.

Carlton are $1.40 favourites away from home, the Dogs $3.00, which tells you how the market reads their respective form. The Blues have won two in a row including the 76-point demolition of Brisbane. Take Carlton, but a Bulldogs side playing for its September is worth respecting on the line.

Head-to-head: Bulldogs vs Carlton prediction & H2H record →

Essendon vs Sydney

Prediction: Sydney to win by 13+ points

The round closes at the MCG with the shortest price of the weekend. Sydney (2nd, 16-5) are locked into second and a home qualifying final after putting 167 on Port Adelaide last week. Essendon (18th, 2-19) are 2-19 and favourites for the wooden spoon.

The Swans are $1.02 and the Bombers $15.00. There is no bet in the head-to-head market at that price: this is a multi anchor and a margin play, nothing more.

Head-to-head: Essendon vs Sydney prediction & H2H record →

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AFL Round 23 FAQs

When is AFL Round 23 2026?

Round 23 runs from Friday 14 August to Sunday 16 August 2026, opening with Fremantle v Adelaide at Optus Stadium and closing with Essendon v Sydney at the MCG on Sunday afternoon.

What is the game of the round?

Hawthorn v Collingwood at the MCG on Saturday night. Third against eighth, with Hawthorn protecting a top-six finish and the week off that now comes with it, and Collingwood defending the last automatic place inside the eight.

Who are the biggest favourites in Round 23?

Sydney at $1.02 against Essendon is the shortest price of the round, with Brisbane and GWS both $1.15 and Melbourne $1.19. All four are multi anchors rather than standalone bets.

Which teams are fighting for the top six?

Hawthorn are third on 58 points, with Brisbane, Adelaide and Melbourne all level on 56 and separated only by percentage, and Geelong four back on 52. Finishing in the top six means skipping the Wildcard Round and getting a weekend off.

What is the Wildcard Round and who is in it?

New for 2026, it replaces the pre-finals bye: the teams finishing seventh to tenth play off on 28 to 30 August for the last two places in the eight. As it stands that bracket is Geelong (52), Collingwood (50), the Western Bulldogs (48) and Carlton (44), which is why Bulldogs v Carlton on Sunday matters so much.

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