AFL Round 24 Preview & Predictions

Round 24 is the last round of the home-and-away season and it decides the double chance. Brisbane and Melbourne are level on 64 points, Hawthorn are two back and Geelong can still reach 64, with the top four possibly not settled until the final game in Perth on Sunday night.

Round 24 is the last round of the home-and-away season, it opened on Thursday night with St Kilda hosting Gold Coast, and it is the round that decides the double chance. Catch up on Round 23 results first, where Fremantle sealed the minor premiership at Optus and the round produced two drawn games, the second Hawthorn and Collingwood stalemate of the season and a Carlton v Western Bulldogs draw that settled the wildcard bracket.

Two things are still live. Brisbane and Melbourne are level on 64 points with Hawthorn two back on 62 and Geelong on 60, so the last two top-four places and the double chance that comes with them are decided across the weekend, possibly not until the final game in Perth on Sunday night. Sixth place, the last spot that skips the Wildcard Round, is Geelong’s to lose and only Adelaide can take it. Here are our Round 24 predictions and head-to-head reads for all nine games; model the finish with the AFL Ladder Predictor and track the market on our AFL premiership odds page.

St Kilda vs Gold Coast

Prediction: St Kilda to win by 13+ points

The final round opened on Thursday night at Marvel Stadium, and it is the only game on the fixture with nothing at all riding on it. St Kilda (11th, 11-12) finished level with GWS on 44 points and had their season ended by the Carlton and Western Bulldogs draw in Round 23. Gold Coast (14th, 8-15) have won one of their last eleven.

The market has St Kilda at $1.44 and Gold Coast at $2.80. The Saints beat Richmond by 49 last week and have the better list by a distance, with 106.7 per cent against the Suns’ 91.5. Dead rubbers between a mid-table side and a bottom-five side usually go the way of the better team by more than the market expects, because the losing side has no reason to grind. Take St Kilda comfortably.

Head-to-head: St Kilda vs Gold Coast prediction & H2H record →

Collingwood vs Brisbane

Prediction: Brisbane to win by 13+ points

Friday night at the MCG, and Brisbane’s double chance is in their own hands. The Lions (3rd, 16-7) are level on 64 points with Melbourne and split only by percentage, 121.1 to 114.6, so a win here almost certainly locks a top-four finish and the week off that comes with it. Collingwood (8th, 12-8-3) cannot reach the top six: 54 points with one game left leaves them a maximum of 58, and Geelong are already on 60. What the Magpies are playing for is seeding inside the Wildcard Round, where finishing seventh or eighth is worth more than ninth or tenth.

The market has Collingwood at $3.60 and Brisbane at $1.30. Brisbane beat Gold Coast by 42 at the Gabba last week and put 125 on Hawthorn a fortnight before that. Collingwood have drawn with Hawthorn twice this season and have not been beaten badly by anyone, but the gap in motivation is real: one side is protecting a qualifying final, the other is protecting a bracket position. Take the Lions to win by more than two goals.

Head-to-head: Collingwood vs Brisbane prediction & H2H record →

Carlton vs Fremantle

Prediction: Fremantle to win by 1-12 points

A Saturday afternoon game at Marvel with a strange dynamic: the minor premiers against a side already in the Wildcard Round. Fremantle (1st, 20-3) have the minor premiership sealed and 141.7 per cent, the best in the competition, and cannot improve their position. Carlton (10th, 11-10-2) are tenth on 48 points and are playing for wildcard seeding after the draw with the Western Bulldogs that put them into the bracket.

The market has Carlton at $2.30 and Fremantle at $1.62. This is the classic last-round trap. The Dockers are the better team and will be expected to win, but they have a Wildcard Round bye and a qualifying final to prepare for, and Perth sides at Marvel are not the same proposition as Perth sides at Optus. Carlton have won two of their last three including a 76-point win over Brisbane. Back Fremantle, but inside two goals rather than over them.

Head-to-head: Carlton vs Fremantle prediction & H2H record →

Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs

Prediction: Melbourne to win by 13+ points

Saturday afternoon at the MCG, and Melbourne (4th, 16-7) are in the same position as Brisbane: level on 64 points, holding fourth on percentage, and one win from a double chance. Their 114.6 per cent is the weakest of the sides in that fight, which means margin matters as much as the four points. The Western Bulldogs (9th, 12-9-2) are ninth on 52 and carrying 94.4 per cent, the worst for-and-against of any side in the top ten, into a wildcard bracket they are already locked into.

The market has Melbourne at $1.44 and Western Bulldogs at $2.80. Melbourne beat Port Adelaide by 76 in Adelaide last week and beat the ladder leaders the week before that. The Dogs have lost their grip on the season since Round 22. Take the Demons, and expect them to keep scoring after the game is settled.

Head-to-head: Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs prediction & H2H record →

Geelong vs Richmond

Prediction: Geelong to win by 13+ points

Saturday night under lights at GMHBA, and Geelong (6th, 15-8) have the most straightforward task of any side with something to play for. They hold sixth on 60 points, and sixth is the last place that skips the Wildcard Round. A win takes them to 64 and into the top-four conversation. Richmond (17th, 3-20) have 12 points and 62.2 per cent, the lowest in the competition.

The market has Geelong at $1.02 and Richmond at $15.00. Geelong also need percentage, because Adelaide can draw level with them on 60 if the Crows win and the Cats lose. That will not be the deciding factor here: Geelong at home against a side that has won three games all year should be a percentage-building exercise. Take the Cats by plenty.

Head-to-head: Geelong vs Richmond prediction & H2H record →

Adelaide vs GWS

Prediction: Adelaide to win by 13+ points

Saturday night at Adelaide Oval, and this is the only game where a side is chasing something it does not control. Adelaide (7th, 14-9) are seventh on 56 points. Winning takes them to 60 and level with Geelong, but only if Geelong lose, and even then sixth would come down to percentage, where the Cats lead 119.8 to 112.9. That is a seven-point swing to find in a single afternoon. GWS (12th, 11-12) had their season ended in Round 23 despite beating West Coast by 54.

The market has Adelaide at $1.23 and GWS at $4.20. So Adelaide need to win, win big, and get help from Richmond. The first two are on them and both are realistic at home against a side with nothing left. The Crows lost to Fremantle at Optus last week without disgrace. Take Adelaide to win well and keep an eye on Geelong’s scoreboard.

Head-to-head: Adelaide vs GWS prediction & H2H record →

Essendon vs Port Adelaide

Prediction: Port Adelaide to win by 13+ points

Sunday lunchtime at Marvel Stadium, between the two sides with the least to show for 2026. Essendon (18th, 2-21) finish last on 8 points. Port Adelaide (15th, 6-17) are on 24 and have lost six straight, including a 76-point beating from Melbourne last week.

The market has Essendon at $2.15 and Port Adelaide at $1.72. Port are the better side even in this form, and the gap in percentage says so: 84.2 to 63.7. Essendon have been competitive in patches but have conceded heavily all season. On a neutral-feeling Sunday lunchtime with both seasons long finished, take the side with more senior talent on the list to win by more than two goals.

Head-to-head: Essendon vs Port Adelaide prediction & H2H record →

Sydney vs North Melbourne

Prediction: Sydney to win in a coinflip

Sunday afternoon at the SCG, and Sydney (2nd, 18-5) are locked into second with 72 points and 135.0 per cent. They cannot catch Fremantle and cannot be caught by Brisbane or Melbourne, so this is a tune-up for a home qualifying final. North Melbourne (13th, 9-14) beat the Western Bulldogs in Round 22 for their best win under Alastair Clarkson and then lost to Geelong by 15 in a shootout.

The market has Sydney at $2.10 and North Melbourne at $1.75. This is the strangest market of the round, because the Kangaroos are the ones being backed. Sydney cannot improve on second and have a home qualifying final to prepare for, so the market has priced the motivation rather than the ladder. We will still lean Swans, who put 167 on Port Adelaide two weeks ago and 112 on Essendon last week, but not by a margin worth backing. Treat this as the round’s genuine coinflip, not a banker.

Head-to-head: Sydney vs North Melbourne prediction & H2H record →

West Coast vs Hawthorn

Prediction: Hawthorn to win by 1-12 points

The season closes on Sunday night in Perth, and it is the game that could decide the double chance. Hawthorn (5th, 14-6-3) are fifth on 62 points, two behind Brisbane and Melbourne. If either of those two lose and Hawthorn win, the Hawks finish top four. West Coast (16th, 4-19) have 16 points and 69.6 per cent, better only than Essendon and Richmond.

The market has West Coast at $9.50 and Hawthorn at $1.06. On paper this is the most lopsided game of the round. In practice it is the one we would be most careful with. Hawthorn have drawn three games this season, including twice with Collingwood, and their record as a short-priced favourite has not matched their ladder position. They also have the longest trip of any side in the round, on the last weekend of the season, needing percentage as well as points. At that price the head-to-head market offers nothing, so if you are taking the Hawks it has to be on the line, and a margin band inside two goals is the safer read than backing a blowout.

Head-to-head: West Coast vs Hawthorn prediction & H2H record →

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AFL Round 24 FAQs

When is AFL Round 24 2026?

Round 24 runs from Thursday 20 August to Sunday 23 August 2026. It is the final round of the home-and-away season, opening with St Kilda against Gold Coast at Marvel Stadium on Thursday night and closing with West Coast against Hawthorn in Perth on Sunday night.

What is the game of the round?

Collingwood v Brisbane at the MCG on Friday night. The Lions are level with Melbourne on 64 points and a win all but locks a top-four finish and the double chance, while Collingwood are playing for their seeding inside the Wildcard Round.

Who is still fighting for the top four?

Brisbane and Melbourne are level on 64 points and separated by percentage, Hawthorn are two back on 62, and Geelong on 60 can still reach 64 with a win. Fremantle and Sydney are locked into first and second, so the last two double-chance places are decided this round. Geelong at $1.02 and Hawthorn at $1.06 are the shortest prices of the weekend.

Can anyone still take sixth place from Geelong?

Only Adelaide. Geelong hold sixth on 60 points and Adelaide are seventh on 56, so a Crows win combined with a Geelong loss would put them level on 60, with sixth then decided on percentage, where Geelong lead 119.8 to 112.9. Collingwood, the Western Bulldogs and Carlton cannot mathematically reach 60.

Which teams are in the Wildcard Round?

The four wildcard places were settled in Round 23: Adelaide, Collingwood, the Western Bulldogs and Carlton. The order inside that bracket is still open, and it decides who meets whom when seventh plays tenth and eighth plays ninth on 28 to 30 August.

Does Fremantle have anything to play for in Round 24?

No. Fremantle sealed the minor premiership in Round 23 and cannot improve on first, so their trip to Carlton is preparation for a qualifying final rather than a game with anything riding on the result.

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