AFL Round 11 Preview & Predictions 2026

AFL Round 11 Preview & Predictions 2026

AFL Round 11 is the Sir Doug Nicholls Round — the league’s celebration of Indigenous Australian football, headlined by Dreamtime at the G on Friday night. It’s also the round where the top of the ladder gets a genuine examination: Geelong host Sydney at Kardinia Park in the game of the year so far. If you missed the wrap, catch up here: AFL Round 10 results.

After R10, the picture is clearer. Sydney (8-1) sit alone at the top with the only one-loss record. Fremantle (8-2) lock in second with the league’s best mid-table percentage. Geelong (6-3) have won three on the trot in big-margin fashion and look the most in-form contender. Brisbane (6-4) dropped a 41-point loss at home to Geelong and now have a fitness curve question. Hawthorn (5-4-1) and Melbourne (6-3) sit on the edge of the four. Below them, Carlton (2-8) and Richmond (1-9) finally have form arrows pointing up, but it’s late for either to be considered finals threats — and Essendon (1-9) are wooden-spoon favourites.

These AFL Round 11 predictions lean on what the numbers are saying after 10 rounds, not what we expected pre-season. Let’s get into the matchups and the AFL tips for the Sir Doug Nicholls Round.

Hawthorn vs Adelaide

Prediction: Hawthorn to win by 1-39 points

The Thursday-night opener at Launceston’s York Park — a fortress for the Hawks in 2026 and a venue where Adelaide have rarely travelled well. Hawthorn come in stinging after a 39-point loss to Melbourne, but their home record at York Park has been the most reliable trend in the competition. Adelaide are riding high after a 68-point demolition of North in R10, but Riley Thilthorpe’s R10 form line was against a defence that’s currently among the league’s worst.

The chess match here is Sam Mitchell’s defensive structure versus Adelaide’s Crows-flavoured pressure game. Hawks midfielder Will Day has been quietly elite all season; expect him to limit Jordan Dawson’s clearance impact. We’re backing Hawthorn at home — York Park is the closer to a 39-point upper bound than it looks on paper.

Head-to-head: Hawthorn vs Adelaide prediction & H2H record →

Richmond vs Essendon — Dreamtime at the G

Prediction: Richmond to win by 1-39 points

Dreamtime at the G is one of the biggest games on the AFL calendar. Two struggling sides, but both with form-line arrows pointing up: Richmond broke through against West Coast in R8 and are getting their game together; Essendon, while sitting 1-9, have actually been more competitive in losses than the record suggests. The Tigers should win this one — Tim Taranto’s running game has been the most-improved player attribute in the league, and the Bombers’ defensive structure has been leaking goals on transition. Richmond to win in a tight one — Dreamtime always plays differently to its ladder positions, and the Tigers’ R8-R10 form line is now a small positive sample.

Head-to-head: Richmond vs Essendon prediction & H2H record →

Fremantle vs St Kilda

Prediction: Fremantle to win by 40+ points

Fremantle (8-2) at Perth Stadium against a St Kilda side that’s in surprisingly good form (5-5, with three big wins in their last four). Most weeks I’d flag this as a 1-39 game, but Fremantle at Optus is a different beast — they’ve won 12 of their last 13 home games. Caleb Serong is averaging 28+ disposals all season and is the heartbeat of a top-two Dockers side. St Kilda’s defensive system can compete, but Freo’s structural quality at home plus the percentage advantage they’re chasing should make this a comfortable Perth win. We’re backing Fremantle with confidence in the 40+ bucket.

Head-to-head: Fremantle vs St Kilda prediction & H2H record →

North Melbourne vs Gold Coast

Prediction: Gold Coast to win by 40+ points

North (3-7) have lost three in a row after their hot start, and Gold Coast (4-5 but trending up) come in off a 25-point win in Darwin over Port Adelaide. The Suns are the most-improved attacking unit in the back half of the season — Sam Flanders and Touk Miller are dominating clearances, and Mac Andrew’s intercept ceiling at full-back gives them the structural defence to compete with mid-table sides. North’s defensive structure can’t handle the Suns’ transition speed. Gold Coast to win comfortably and tighten the top-eight push.

Head-to-head: North Melbourne vs Gold Coast prediction & H2H record →

Geelong vs Sydney — Game of the Year

Prediction: Sydney to win by 1-39 points

The game everyone wants to see. Sydney (8-1) v Geelong (6-3) at Kardinia Park, with both sides on three-game winning streaks. Sydney are the only one-loss side in the comp; Geelong are the most in-form contender. Kardinia Park gives the Cats a genuine edge — they’ve won 18 of their last 20 games at the venue across all-comers — but Sydney’s pressure game travels, and Isaac Heeney has been the matchwinner three weeks running.

This is the most-watched game of the round, and the closest match on paper. The Sydney midfield — Errol Gulden, Chad Warner and James Rowbottom — has the structural quality to win contested footy against the league’s most consistent ball-winning team. We’re backing Sydney in a six-pointer that could swing on a single fourth-quarter goal. The line should sit around 6.5 points either way; the road favourite is the value.

Head-to-head: Geelong vs Sydney prediction & H2H record →

Collingwood vs West Coast

Prediction: Collingwood to win by 40+ points

Even in their worst form, Collingwood (5-4-1) at the MCG against West Coast (3-7) is one of the safer plays of the round. The Pies are coming off two close losses (the R10 SCG thriller to Sydney) and they have the personnel to dominate at home. Nick Daicos is averaging 30+ disposals all season and will run the show. The Eagles’ R10 upset over GWS was the surprise of the season — but Collingwood’s structural quality on the MCG is in a different tier. Collingwood by 40+.

Head-to-head: Collingwood vs West Coast prediction & H2H record →

Port Adelaide vs Carlton

Prediction: Port Adelaide to win by 1-39 points

The most-vulnerable favourite of the round. Port (3-7) host Carlton (2-8) at Adelaide Oval after dropping three in a row. Carlton finally found some structural identity in their R10 win over the Bulldogs, and Patrick Cripps continues to be one of the league’s elite midfielders even in a struggling season. Port’s home record at Adelaide Oval is still net-positive but it’s been the trend story of 2026 — they’ve lost three of their last five at the venue, and the percentage damage is mounting. Port Adelaide to win at home — but the margin is up for grabs. Carlton plus the points (especially 22.5+) is the value play.

Head-to-head: Port Adelaide vs Carlton prediction & H2H record →

Greater Western Sydney vs Brisbane Lions

Prediction: Brisbane Lions to win by 1-39 points

Brisbane (6-4) come in off a 41-point loss to Geelong at the Gabba — their biggest of the season and their first vulnerable look in months. GWS (3-7) shocked everyone with the R10 loss at West Coast, but they had been competitive in most of their other losses. This is the Giants’ must-win game to keep faint top-eight hopes alive. Brisbane should still win — Lachie Neale’s clearance dominance plus Hugh McCluggage’s running impact give them the structural edge — but expect a tight game where GWS push them deep into the fourth quarter. Brisbane to win, but I’m not loving the side at the line: take Brisbane line OR an Over total of 165.5.

Head-to-head: Greater Western Sydney vs Brisbane Lions prediction & H2H record →

Western Bulldogs vs Melbourne

Prediction: Melbourne to win by 1-39 points

The Sunday closer. The Bulldogs (5-5) need a win after five losses in their last six — the most-surprising mid-table slide of the season. Melbourne (6-3) have climbed back into the top-four conversation after their R10 win over Hawthorn and are tracking right. Christian Petracca, Kysaiah Pickett and Max Gawn give the Demons a structural ceiling that the Dogs simply can’t match right now. Marcus Bontempelli’s near-best is still elite, but the Dogs’ defensive structure has been the issue — they’ve conceded 100+ in three of their last five. Melbourne to win, with a margin under 30 — the Dogs at home will push them.

Head-to-head: Western Bulldogs vs Melbourne prediction & H2H record →

Round 11 Best Bets Summary

• Best Single Bet: Fremantle to win at Perth Stadium — fortress form + 40+ margin runway
• Best Underdog Play: Geelong line at Kardinia Park v Sydney (back the home side at +6.5 or better)
• Best Value: Carlton plus 22.5+ at Adelaide Oval — Port’s home struggles + Cripps as the focal point
• SGM Pick of the Round: Sydney to win + Geelong-Sydney Over 165.5 + Heeney 1+ goal

Round 11 SGM Tips

For Same Game Multi picks tailored to each fixture, see our AFL Same Game Multi tips page. The biggest SGM opportunity of the round is the Geelong-Sydney clash — combine the Sydney win with an Over 165.5 total and an Isaac Heeney 1+ goal for a ~$4.50-$5.50 SGM at the major bookmakers.

Looking for the best bookmakers to bet on the AFL?

Price matters over a long season, especially when you’re taking margin plays and markets that move late. If you’re shopping around for sharper lines and a smoother AFL experience, see our best AFL betting sites in Australia guide for full bookmaker comparisons, or check the newest betting sites in Australia for fresh signup offers. For multi-leg picks across the round, see our same game multi guide.

FAQ

What’s the biggest game of AFL Round 11?
Geelong v Sydney at Kardinia Park on Saturday afternoon. Sydney are the only one-loss side in the competition; Geelong are the most in-form contender. The closest game on paper and the highest stakes game of the season so far.

What is Sir Doug Nicholls Round?
Sir Doug Nicholls Round is the AFL’s annual celebration of Indigenous Australian football, named after the late Sir Doug Nicholls — Aboriginal AFL pioneer, activist and former Governor of South Australia. The round features special jumper designs from every club and is headlined by Dreamtime at the G between Richmond and Essendon.

Which Round 11 game looks most likely to be a blowout?
Fremantle v St Kilda at Optus Stadium and Collingwood v West Coast at the MCG both profile as 40+ point wins for the home side.

Where is Dreamtime at the G being played?
The MCG, on Friday 22 May 2026, between Richmond and Essendon.

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