AFL Round 9 Preview & Predictions

Jun 4, 2026

Round 9 is loaded: Freo-Hawks tight, Cats-Pies big stakes, and several 40+ spots. Full AFL Round 9 predictions and tips for every game.

AFL Round 9 Preview & Predictions

AFL Round 9 arrives with the ladder in a weird place: Sydney and Fremantle are setting the pace, Hawthorn and the Dogs are right on their heels, and a handful of big-name sides are already staring at must-win territory. We saw enough volatility last week to keep you honest, but also enough clarity to get aggressive with this weekend’s positions. If you missed the wrap, catch up here: AFL Round 8 results

The headline for mine is simple: the league’s best ball-winning engines are about to collide with the competition’s most ruthless scoring profiles. Sydney’s percentage (175.53) is the loudest statement in the comp, while Gold Coast’s forward-half impact is now impossible to ignore. Meanwhile, Carlton and Richmond are in the danger zone and they’re walking into two of the harsher matchups you can draw.

These AFL Round 9 predictions lean on what the numbers are actually saying right now, not what we remember from last September. Let’s get into the matchups and the AFL tips I’m taking into the weekend.

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Fremantle vs Hawthorn

Prediction: Fremantle to win by 1-39 points

This is the one genuinely live game of the round, and the models agree: Fremantle get a narrow consensus (13 of 22) with an average margin of 4.2. That feels right because both sides are sitting at 4-1 and both have profiles that travel.

Freo’s edge is their ability to win the hard stuff without gifting easy scores. They’re piling up 722 contested possessions across five games, and when they do turn it over, they’re still intercepting well enough (343) to avoid the avalanche. Hawthorn’s attack is more explosive: 77 goals from five games is a serious early-season clip, and they’re doing it with plenty of supply (289 inside 50s) and a cleaner turnover count (310) than most contenders.

The venue note matters. Fremantle have won six of the last seven against Hawthorn at Perth Stadium, including last year’s 13-point result and the 2023 belting (117-48). The midfield fight is elite: Caleb Serong is going at 26.8 disposals and 12.6 contested per game, while Jai Newcombe is at 7.8 clearances a game and will try to drag this into stoppage chaos.

We’re backing Fremantle to win because Perth Stadium has been a problem for Hawthorn, and Freo’s contested game travels better in a tight one.

Head-to-head: Fremantle vs Hawthorn prediction & H2H record →

Brisbane Lions vs Carlton

Prediction: Lions to win by 40+ points

The easiest read of the round. Brisbane are sixth at 3-2 and Carlton are 16th at 1-5, and the prediction models aren’t even entertaining the upset: 22 of 22 tip Brisbane, average margin 36.6. At the Gabba, with this Carlton defensive profile, I’m pushing it into the 40+ bucket.

Brisbane’s ball use and territory game should suffocate Carlton. The Lions are generating huge movement (10.7 kicks per game in the dataset and 30,547 metres gained already) and they’re strong in the contest (215 clearances from five games). Carlton can compete at stoppage and pressure, but their season has been built on fighting fires: 601 points conceded across six games, plus the turnover bleed (417) against good transition sides is asking to get punished.

Historically it’s been tight overall, but the recent Gabba story is Brisbane: they’ve won four of the last five there against Carlton, including two finals in 2023 and 2024. The key battle is in the middle: Lachie Neale is still the clearance king at 8.0 a game, while Sam Walsh is carrying the Blues’ ball-winning at 28.2 disposals and 5.5 tackles per game. If Neale gets first hands, it’s a long night.

We’re backing Brisbane to win because their clearance-and-transition blend is exactly the kind of matchup that blows Carlton’s structure apart.

Head-to-head: Brisbane Lions vs Carlton prediction & H2H record →

Port Adelaide vs Western Bulldogs

Prediction: Bulldogs to win by 40+ points

This is the other game where the market should be brutal. Port are 11th (2-3) and the Dogs are fourth (4-1). The models are unanimous: 22 of 22 tip Western Bulldogs, average margin 25.1. I’m stronger than that because Port’s profile screams “can be overwhelmed”, and the Dogs’ forward line is built to do it.

Port’s biggest issue is what happens when they don’t control the game. They’re lower on total disposals (1738) and contested possessions (604) than most sides we trust, and they don’t generate enough repeat entries to compensate. The Dogs, on the other hand, are scoring with volume and variety: 73 goals from five games, and they’re not even relying on a single focal point.

H2H is actually Port-leaning overall (22-17), and Port have won three of the last four at Adelaide Oval against the Dogs. But last year’s Dogs demolition (131-41) is the freshest reference point, and it shows what happens when Port’s defensive matchups get stretched.

The player watch is obvious: Aaron Naughton is averaging 3.0 goals a game, and if Port can’t keep their intercept game tidy, he’ll see enough quality ball to fill his boots. Port need Zak Butters (30.0 disposals, 6.6 clearances) to play a near-perfect game to keep the Dogs from living in their front half.

We’re backing the Western Bulldogs to win because their scoring power plus midfield pressure is a nightmare matchup for Port’s current form line.

Head-to-head: Port Adelaide vs Western Bulldogs prediction & H2H record →

North Melbourne vs Sydney

Prediction: Sydney to win by 40+ points

North are seventh at 3-2 and that’s been a genuine early-season step, but this is a different problem. Sydney are top at 4-1 with a percentage of 175.53, and the models are unanimous again: 22 of 22 tip Sydney, average margin 24.1. I’m happy going bigger because Sydney’s scoring has been relentless.

The Swans are simply piling on scores: 86 goals from five games, plus a huge inside-50 count (313) that matches the very best. North can score too (67 goals), but they don’t generate as much territory (only 248 inside 50s) and that invites Sydney’s pressure game to squeeze the air out of them.

And history at this venue is ugly. Sydney have won 10 straight against North, including multiple games at Docklands, and their only loss in the last decade-plus stretch came back in 2018 at the SCG. This matchup has been one-way traffic.

The player matchup I’m watching is Harry Sheezel versus Sydney’s defensive midfield clamp. Sheezel is averaging 31.4 disposals, but Sydney can send James Rowbottom to make every touch hurt. Rowbottom is leading the league at 8.4 tackles per game, and that pressure is a big reason Sydney’s best is so high.

We’re backing Sydney to win because they score too easily and their pressure profile travels, even to Docklands.

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Head-to-head: North Melbourne vs Sydney prediction & H2H record →

Greater Western Sydney vs Essendon

Prediction: GWS to win by 40+ points

GWS are 13th at 2-3, Essendon are 17th at 1-4, and this is where the ladder spot is misleading. The Giants’ underlying ball movement and scoring volume look like a side better than 2-3, while Essendon’s numbers look like a team hanging on. The models go full certainty: 22 of 22 tip GWS, average margin 29.2.

Start with supply. GWS are generating a massive 287 inside 50s from five games and kicking 63 goals to go with it, while Essendon are stuck at 225 inside 50s and 58 goals. If the Giants get their usual territory edge, Essendon simply won’t see enough ball in scoring positions to trade punches.

There’s also a venue-specific scar for the Bombers: the last time these two played at Sydney Showground, it was a 162-36 Giants avalanche (2023). That’s one game, not a trend on its own, but it does underline the matchup risk when GWS get on top early.

Finn Callaghan is in ripping touch at 31.4 disposals a game, and he’ll test Essendon’s ability to defend the corridor. The Bombers’ best hope is a huge ball-winning night from Archie Roberts (30.0 disposals per game), but he’s not getting much clearance support (Essendon only 139 clearances as a team).

We’re backing GWS to win because they should win territory, win the ball, and kick away once Essendon’s legs are forced to defend repeat entries.

Head-to-head: Greater Western Sydney vs Essendon prediction & H2H record →

Gold Coast vs St Kilda

Prediction: Gold Coast to win by 1-39 points

Gold Coast are fifth at 3-2 and St Kilda are 14th at 2-3, but this matchup is more interesting than the model unanimity suggests. Yes, 22 of 22 tip the Suns (avg margin 17.5), and yes, the Suns are scoring like a top-four side. But St Kilda’s best footy can drag games into a grind, and this one is at Marrara where weird things happen.

The Suns’ attacking output is the separator: 81 goals from five games is elite, and they’re doing it without needing massive disposal dominance (1850 disposals total). They get the ball forward (293 inside 50s) and they convert. St Kilda’s issue is finishing: only 58 goals with 55 behinds hints at a side doing enough work to get looks, then wasting them.

H2H overall favours the Saints (14-6), but Gold Coast have won two of the last three meetings, including last year’s 19-point win. The player to watch is obvious: Ben King leads the Coleman race early with 21 goals at 4.2 a game. If St Kilda can’t keep their entries predictable, King’s marking patterns will hurt them.

We’re backing Gold Coast to win because their forward line is in ruthless form, and St Kilda can’t afford another wasteful night in front of goals.

Head-to-head: Gold Coast vs St Kilda prediction & H2H record →

Geelong vs Collingwood

Prediction: Geelong to win by 1-39 points

This is the blockbuster on paper, but the consensus says it isn’t: 22 of 22 models tip Geelong, average margin 12.1. Geelong are eighth at 3-2, Collingwood ninth at 3-3, and the Pies haven’t looked like a team that can win four quarters against a side that punishes turnovers.

Geelong’s profile is built for the MCG right now: they’re tackling well (321) and generating enough forward entries (298 inside 50s) to keep games on their terms. Collingwood are winning plenty of ball (2252 disposals across six games), but they’re also coughing it up often (420 turnovers), and against Geelong that’s the kind of mistake that turns into a slingshot goal at the other end.

Recent head-to-head is a genuine Cats edge: Geelong have won six of the last eight meetings, including the last two at the MCG (2024 and 2025). The midfield headline is irresistible: Bailey Smith is averaging 32.2 disposals and 5.2 tackles, while Nick Daicos is still an elite accumulator at 30.0 a game. The difference is defensive intent: Smith’s tackling pressure is giving Geelong extra possessions on the deck.

We’re backing Geelong to win because they’ll turn Collingwood’s turnover risk into scoreboard damage, and they’ve had the wood over them recently.

Head-to-head: Geelong vs Collingwood prediction & H2H record →

Melbourne vs West Coast

Prediction: Melbourne to win by 40+ points

Melbourne are 10th at 3-2 and West Coast are 15th at 2-3, but this feels like a gulf. The Eagles have conceded 600 points already and are carrying a percentage of 64.33. The models are ruthless: 22 of 22 tip Melbourne, average margin 32.5.

Melbourne’s season hasn’t been pretty, but their method should work perfectly at Docklands. They’re generating 287 inside 50s and scoring 69 goals from five games, while West Coast are stuck on 227 inside 50s and 55 goals. Even if the Eagles scrap, they simply don’t create enough repeat scoring looks to survive when Melbourne get a run on.

Head-to-head overall is West Coast leaning historically (38-23), but the recent trend is Melbourne. They’ve won five of the last six meetings, including last year’s Docklands demolition (139-56) and an away win in Perth in 2025 (108-76).

This game should pivot on the ruck and contest. Max Gawn is averaging 37.6 hitouts and a massive 15.2 contested possessions per game, which is a cheat code for territory when Melbourne are on. West Coast’s best resistance looks like Jack Graham, who’s averaging 6.6 tackles, but if he’s spending the night defending, those tackles are just a symptom.

We’re backing Melbourne to win because Gawn and their contest work should pin West Coast in their back half, and the Eagles’ defence is already leaking too much.

Head-to-head: Melbourne vs West Coast prediction & H2H record →

Richmond vs Adelaide

Prediction: Adelaide to win by 40+ points

Richmond are bottom at 0-5 with a percentage of 56.36, and Adelaide are 12th at 2-3 but trending towards “better than record”. The prediction models don’t blink: 22 of 22 tip Adelaide, average margin 30.2. With Richmond’s scoring issues, I can see this getting away quickly.

The Tigers’ problem is that they’re not generating enough opportunities, and when they do, they’re not converting. They’ve kicked just 41 goals from five games, and their ball movement numbers are near the bottom of this round’s slate (1660 disposals, 241 inside 50s). Adelaide aren’t an offensive juggernaut, but they can grind you down with pressure: 321 tackles already, plus a strong contested profile (704 contested possessions).

H2H is Adelaide-leaning overall (27-18), and last year at the MCG was a warning shot: Adelaide won 122-54. Richmond can’t afford another slow start, because they don’t have the firepower to chase.

The player battle I want is Sam Berry versus Tim Taranto in the clinches. Berry is averaging 12.8 contested possessions and 6.2 tackles, and Taranto is at 12.6 contested, 6.4 clearances and 6.2 tackles. If Berry can blunt Taranto’s first hands, Adelaide’s forward entries will come off cleaner looks.

We’re backing Adelaide to win because Richmond’s scoring is too thin, and the Crows’ pressure game should force the Tigers into turnover footy all afternoon.

Head-to-head: Richmond vs Adelaide prediction & H2H record →

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FAQ

What’s the best way to use these AFL Round 9 predictions?
Start with the games where the data and consensus align, then be selective with tighter matchups like Fremantle-Hawthorn where the range of outcomes is wider.

Which game looks most likely to be a blowout?
Brisbane-Carlton and Melbourne-West Coast both profile as big margins, with unanimous model support and clear territory and scoring advantages.

Who’s the key goal kicker to watch this round?
Ben King is the headline. He leads the league with 21 goals (4.2 per game) and gets a matchup where Gold Coast should generate enough inside 50s to feed him.

Is Fremantle vs Hawthorn the best game of the round?
It’s the closest on paper and in the models. Two 4-1 sides, a tight consensus, and a genuine clash of contested power versus scoring surge.